[solstice]

If it went in the ocean it could have been a Hudson River kind of landing causing little or no debris. That would delay anything showing up on the shores or being found floating around. I guess at some stage some floating parts will brake lose from the sinking plane or sunken plane but it would be small pieces and could take a very long time to find. Taken that I think the ability to detect and more important the vigilance to look for unidentified planes in remote ares in times of peace is low the plane can IMO be pretty much anywhere outside populated areas at sea or land.

[grimlock]

Originally Posted by MattMD

I saw out rather out there theory that the plane could be used as a carrier for a dirty bomb.

That would be the simpler part of the plan - how would they get the dirty bomb?
Wouldn't it be easier to put in a van and drive it to where ever you wanted.. why go to all the trouble of abducting a plane with 200 families bawling their eyes out it's not exactly stealth.

or use a small plane for aerial delivery - how heavy is this dirty material?

[KingOfJericho]

Originally Posted by solstice

If it went in the ocean it could have been a Hudson River kind of landing causing little or no debris. That would delay anything showing up on the shores or being found floating around. I guess at some stage some floating parts will brake lose from the sinking plane or sunken plane but it would be small pieces and could take a very long time to find. Taken that I think the ability to detect and more important the vigilance to look for unidentified planes in remote ares in times of peace is low the plane can IMO be pretty much anywhere outside populated areas at sea or land.

You're talking about the open ocean versus the incredibly smooth surface of a river. You could not pull a Sully in the middle of the Indian ocean.

Here's a live wave height chart:

[MattMD]

Originally Posted by grimlock

That would be the simpler part of the plan - how would they get the dirty bomb?
Wouldn't it be easier to put in a van and drive it to where ever you wanted.. why go to all the trouble of abducting a plane with 200 families bawling their eyes out it's not exactly stealth.

or use a small plane for aerial delivery - how heavy is this dirty material?

That would be the question, can they drive a van to where they want it? Most of these Middle East countries have secure borders and checkpoints and such. Getting a van through could be impossible. If they wanted to do it to Israel, I'm not sure if they could do it with a van.

Hypothetically, you could put a much larger bomb in a 777 than in a van. Namely, a 150 metric ton nuke.

[solstice]

Originally Posted by KingOfJericho

You're talking about the open ocean versus the incredibly smooth surface of a river. You could not pull a Sully in the middle of the Indian ocean.

Here's a live wave height chart:

I agree but the ocean is big and conditions vary in time and location so I still think it would be possible to put a fully operational plane in the hands of an experienced pilot in the water without breaking part the fuselage where I assume the majority of permanently floating material resides.

[SteveMD]

Originally Posted by MattMD

That would be the question, can they drive a van to where they want it? Most of these Middle East countries have secure borders and checkpoints and such. Getting a van through could be impossible. If they wanted to do it to Israel, I'm not sure if they could do it with a van.

Hypothetically, you could put a much larger bomb in a 777 than in a van. Namely, a 150 metric ton nuke.

No nuclear warhead weighs 150 tonnes. A typical warhead weighs less than 3000lbs.

The plane is at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. It took that south route.

Or CNN has it.

[Maestro]

Here is something for people to keep in mind, if it crashed on land, either intentionally or by any other means, the black box located beacon would be going off and satellites would have detected it, there is nothing anyone in the plane could have done to stop it from sending out the location beacon. Since we know that did not happen only two conclusion are left in my mind, the plane did in fact land somewhere within it fuel range, or the plane is at the bottom of the Ocean. The Black box also put out a sonar beacon as well which can be pickup by sophisticate listen devices. This is what the US P3 Orion where doing during the initial search they were dropping sonar receiver/listening devices. The P3 were sub hunters back in the day. The military will never say how good their systems but they have to be within so many miles of the object to hear it. If the plane is in the Indian ocean they will not hear the black box unless they are some what close to it.

In the last two cases it going to take a long time before anyone finds that plane or until someone speak up and tells people what they know. As we know the more people that knows the fact the harder it is to keep it a secret. Since we have not heard a think as of today then the people who know is most likely a small group.

[MiddleAgedAl]

If someone took the plane with the intention of using it for nasty purposes later, I think 9/11 is more than adequate proof that you dont need to load it with nukes, or dirty bomb materials, or anything else. Just the aircraft by itself is more than capable of causing damage, taking lives, and, of most interest to the hijackers, instilling more fear and paranoia into the people, causing them to adjust their behavior even further.

So far, no obvious links that any passengers are the targets themselves; if you wanted to kidnap or kill a few of them, there are many easier ways with far less risk than by taking a 777 to do so. I'd guess they were after just the plane itself, and the passengers on there are just collateral damage, as far as they are concerned.

The very specific and deliberate flight path that has been (at least partially) established rules out suicide for me... why bother flying for 7+ hours first, before crashing it. Seems like whoever was flying knew what they were doing, and had a specific destination in mind, and a specific path to get there.

Personally, I dont buy the "theres no way it could fly over land without radar from country x picking it up" story; fact is, it may have backtracked over Malaysia itself, and it took days for the Malaysian Air Force to get their act together, and even admit that happened. That's a significant radar signature to ignore, especially when transponders are all off, so ATC can't tell you who it is and if they have a legit reason to be there.

I think it's embarrassingly clear to everyone now that if you wanted to pull a u turn and fly that plane into the petronas twin towers, u probably could have done so, and the odds are very low that any fighters would be scrambled in time to intercept you. That type of response may be true for any other countries in that area.

Of course, now that people know it's missing, if radar does pick up a 777-sized object with no transponders, heading towards some civilian target tomorrow, there is a greater chance it will be dealt with quickly, compared to a week ago.

[MattMD]

Originally Posted by SteveMD

No nuclear warhead weighs 150 tonnes. A typical warhead weighs less than 3000lbs.

I got yield mixed up with weight. The plane can take off with 150-160 tons of added weight. That could make for a lot of explosives.

[pgviper]

Originally Posted by KingOfJericho

It's been 12.5 years and you're being naive. When one avenue closes, they simply look for another. Remember the shoe bomber? The underwear bomber? The bomb that luckily malfunctioned in Times Sq? The Boston Marathon? Our best defense is the giant oceans that surround us which is why tightened airline security is an effective tactic, but as I said before, they are playing a long game here.

I agree with you, def a long game. I was never saying that things don't happen, I'm just trying to be an optimist and say that there have been more failed attacks that we don't hear about rather than succesful ones.

[u5g335]

If the water was calm enough between swells and the pilot had sufficient skill, it could land on the water in mostly one piece. Only thing is it would start sinking immediately. The only reason the hudson river landing plane did not sink was because one of the nyc ferries pulled up almost immediately and passed a chain thru the two front cabin doors and secured it to the ferry. The pilots didn't even have time to enable ditch mode which would have helped keep it afloat slightly longer. Point being that once in the water, the plane is going to sink either from minor damage sustained or existing openings. This means if 370 did land without being torn apart out in the open ocean, the only thing to find after 10 days would be floating objects that popped out like seat cushions, bags, and slides/liferafts possibly full of people.

[solstice]

Originally Posted by u5g335

If the water was calm enough between swells and the pilot had sufficient skill, it could land on the water in mostly one piece. Only thing is it would start sinking immediately. The only reason the hudson river landing plane did not sink was because one of the nyc ferries pulled up almost immediately and passed a chain thru the two front cabin doors and secured it to the ferry. The pilots didn't even have time to enable ditch mode which would have helped keep it afloat slightly longer. Point being that once in the water, the plane is going to sink either from minor damage sustained or existing openings. This means if 370 did land without being torn apart out in the open ocean, the only thing to find after 10 days would be floating objects that popped out like seat cushions, bags, and slides/liferafts possibly full of people.

Yes, that was my original point. It could be very difficult and take a very long time to find anything if the plan was put in the water without breaking apart and sank as mainly one piece. It's worse case scenario in regards to finding it. Personally though I put slightly higher likelyhood in that it's on land. I think it's a lot easier to avoid being spotted when noone is looking for you flying into remote areas of many countries than what is the general notion. It looks like they did fly over Malaysia without being initially detected or intercepted.

[SteveMD]

I just can't see how it could be on land. You had probably over 200 cell phones on that plane. As soon as the plane was near any cell tower, messages would have been sent.

Even if those in charge flew the plane high and depressurized the cabin via the outflow valve, killing the passengers, who is to say that there would not be a text message or email on a phone waiting to be sent as soon as a tower came in range - too risky if you are a hijacker.

I'm starting to think now that the final satellite pings may have been erroneous and we are relying too much on that info being correct.

I think the plane was hijacked, and after some period of time, the passengers tried to retake the cockpit and did a 'Flight 93' into the water somewhere south west of Malaysia.

[MiddleAgedAl]

Interesting article on the security (or lack thereof) of Malaysian Airspace.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26603830

"It has now emerged that Malaysian primary military radar tracked an unidentified contact that flew right across the country's air space, now confirmed to be MH370. But no action, it seems, was taken.

"Where was the Malaysian air force in all this?" says former RAF pilot and aerospace analyst Andrew Brookes.

Ever since 9/11, air defences around the world have been on alert for a hijacked airliner aiming for a prestige target. And few targets are more prestigious than the twin Petronas towers in downtown Kuala Lumpur."

These sorts of big questions are probably why the authorities had conflicting reports about this at first, before they finally admitted to it days later.

My guess is, to avoid similar embarrassment, if any other countries discover upon review that yes, their radar did actually pick up the plane while it was flying over land, if they admit to that, it brings up all sorts of similarly uncomfortable questions about their choice to do nothing about it at the time.

Better to claim you saw nothing, and if the plane does surface later, you can always suggest it must have flown below your radar.

[TunedM2C]

I don't buy the notion of the plane being purposely stolen with the intentions of loading explosives to cause mass destruction. If their goal was to make the plane simply disappear along with those passengers and hope no one would notice that would be poor planning on their part. However, if the passengers and pilots were all in it together to orchestrate some sort of master plan then that's a different story.

[MattMD]

Originally Posted by SteveMD

I just can't see how it could be on land. You had probably over 200 cell phones on that plane. As soon as the plane was near any cell tower, messages would have been sent.

Even if those in charge flew the plane high and depressurized the cabin via the outflow valve, killing the passengers, who is to say that there would not be a text message or email on a phone waiting to be sent as soon as a tower came in range - too risky if you are a hijacker.

How hard would it be for a hijacker to smuggle one of these onto the plane?



http://www.jammerfromchina.com/produ..._Antennas.html

Completely jams all signals whatsoever. I think if you're going to hijack a freaking plane you can find a way to get this onto the plane. Let it be a paid-off mechanic who puts it in an accessible hatch or a paid-off security officer who lets you keep it in your carry on...

[SteveMD]

Originally Posted by MattMD

How hard would it be for a hijacker to smuggle one of these onto the plane?



http://www.jammerfromchina.com/produ..._Antennas.html

Completely jams all signals whatsoever. I think if you're going to hijack a freaking plane you can find a way to get this onto the plane. Let it be a paid-off mechanic who puts it in an accessible hatch or a paid-off security officer who lets you keep it in your carry on...

It would still be risky. Only one little 140 character text needs to get out and your plan is done.

I take it that you think the plane landed somewhere? I find that very unlikely. It would have had to fly over sovereign nations at very low altitude requiring huge skill and cutting the fuel consumption in half. Again, too risky if the plane was being stolen. I do not believe either pilot was in charge of the flight deck.

My scenario is the correct one

Passengers tried to retake the cockpit and the 'pilot' put it into the southern Indian Ocean. I'm actually starting to wonder if the pilot got lost. All his nannies were turned off and he would have been flying visually. It would have been pitch dark over the ocean, he would have been tired and stressed and likely not well trained on the 777.

Or he ran out of fuel.

[grimlock]

Originally Posted by MiddleAgedAl

Interesting article on the security (or lack thereof) of Malaysian Airspace.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26603830

"It has now emerged that Malaysian primary military radar tracked an unidentified contact that flew right across the country's air space, now confirmed to be MH370. But no action, it seems, was taken.

"Where was the Malaysian air force in all this?" says former RAF pilot and aerospace analyst Andrew Brookes.

Ever since 9/11, air defences around the world have been on alert for a hijacked airliner aiming for a prestige target. And few targets are more prestigious than the twin Petronas towers in downtown Kuala Lumpur."

These sorts of big questions are probably why the authorities had conflicting reports about this at first, before they finally admitted to it days later.

My guess is, to avoid similar embarrassment, if any other countries discover upon review that yes, their radar did actually pick up the plane while it was flying over land, if they admit to that, it brings up all sorts of similarly uncomfortable questions about their choice to do nothing about it at the time.

Better to claim you saw nothing, and if the plane does surface later, you can always suggest it must have flown below your radar.

Who are Malaysia's enemies? Singapore? Thailand, Indonesia? More likely China gonna make them their Crimea to 'protect' the enthnic chinese there.
"Oh, there's a plane going across the screen.. what is it.. oh who cares too much trouble [feet on table sip coffee]"

If this is related to religion in anyway, rather than ethnicity or other idealogy, I would be very concerned given the propensity for such ideas/ideals to spread across the globe and soon it's a war of civilizations Muslim(backward-facing) vs the Western world espousing progress.

[Maestro]

You do not need to jam cell phones on a plane, First a plane flying at 35K ft is out of range of any cell tower. Cell tower antenna's are highly direction and point along the surface of the earth and space about 2 to 3 miles apart since your crappy low power cell phone can not transmit that far and still get reception. Second, cell in a plane are enclosed in what is know as faraday cage, which means it shield radio waves from passing through it. The plane is completely covered in metal so is makes is very hard for radio waves to pass through it. Lastly, the earth is not covered with cell towers, so if you fly high enough and not over any densely populated areas you not going to come in contact with a cell tower and have enough transmit power from your phone to connect to the tower.

Before someone say, but people have connect to a cell tower in a plane, yes and most likely it was below 5000 ft or on the ground at the airport which has high density of antenna which are more sensitive to lower power signal. Or the plane is equipped a mirco cell repeater which then relates your cell phone to the internet satellite connection son the plane. Lastly the people making calls on Flight 93 were doing so with a in-flight phones they use to have on plane.

So if you think a plane is getting hijack and you think you going to use your cell phone to phone home, think again, it will not work.

[SteveMD]

Originally Posted by Maestro

You do not need to jam cell phones on a plane, First a plane flying at 35K ft is out of range of any cell tower. Cell tower antenna's are highly direction and point along the surface of the earth and space about 2 to 3 miles apart since your crappy low power cell phone can not transmit that far and still get reception. Second, cell in a plane are enclosed in what is know as faraday cage, which means it shield radio waves from passing through it. The plane is completely covered in metal so is makes is very hard for radio waves to pass through it. Lastly, the earth is not covered with cell towers, so if you fly high enough and not over any densely populated areas you not going to come in contact with a cell tower and have enough transmit power from your phone to connect to the tower.

Before someone say, but people have connect to a cell tower in a plane, yes and most likely it was below 5000 ft or on the ground at the airport which has high density of antenna which are more sensitive to lower power signal. Or the plane is equipped a mirco cell repeater which then relates your cell phone to the internet satellite connection son the plane. Lastly the people making calls on Flight 93 were doing so with a in-flight phones they use to have on plane.

So if you think a plane is getting hijack and you think you going to use your cell phone to phone home, think again, it will not work.

No but as soon as you land, whether or not your 230+ passengers are alive, their phones will be pinging towers.

[solstice]

Originally Posted by SteveMD

No but as soon as you land, whether or not your 230+ passengers are alive, their phones will be pinging towers.

Not if you land outside coverage which likely include most areas in the assumed paths and something that is likely the first thing to check when selecting a landing area in the planning.

[fatpanda]

Originally Posted by SteveMD

No but as soon as you land, whether or not your 230+ passengers are alive, their phones will be pinging towers.

maybe all d passengers had their mobiles taken or theyre all dead before landing...

im w d idea its resting at d bottom of d ocean, n itll take years before they find it...