[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Sorry, I was gone a few minutes tearing up my economics degree.

There is no official definition of stagflation. It is a political and media term, not one economists use rigorously. Loosely it means a combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation, and nothing more than that. Neither “stagnant” nor “high” are specified. I offered my view of those above. But that is just my view.

so i guess this is just all opinion and why economists are no longer a highly regarded profession... i seem them going towards meteorological forecasters soon...

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

so i guess this is just all opinion and why economists are no longer a highly regarded profession... i seem them going towards meteorological forecasters soon...

They/we never were. It was called the dismal science long before I took my first class.

With respect to forecasting the economy, the old joke is if you assemble a group of five economists and ask for their predictions, you’ll get at least seven forecasts.

And another: an economist, an engineer, and a landscaper are trapped in a hole. They each work on a plan to get out. After the engineer and landscaper describe various ways to dig, make stairs, etc., they ask the economist for his solution. He responds, “assume a ladder,…”

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

They/we never were. It was called the dismal science long before I took my first class.

With respect to forecasting the economy, the old joke is if you assemble a group of five economists and ask for their predictions, you’ll get at least seven forecasts.

And another: an economist, an engineer, and a landscaper are trapped in a hole. They each work on a plan to get out. After the engineer and landscaper describe various ways to dig, make stairs, etc., they ask the economist for his solution. He responds, “assume a ladder,…”

i think it would be an accurate profession if we had a true hands off economy... what no one can predict is what outside forces will move the market... i.e. govt support, bailouts, ppp etc... thats why ive always said we dont nor have ever had free markets, thats a made up story someone told someone else and it got spread

[XutvJet]

My investment portfolio has never been so large. My paid off house is worth double what we paid back in 2007. Once my daughter is off to college in early 2027, I'm retiring at 53, my wife and I will downsize substantially and buy/build a sub 1,200 ft2 3 bedroom home with lots of windows and outside living space, do a nice standalone garage, be off the grid as much as possible with solar/wind/well water, big garden, and just enjoy an easy life.

We're going backwards compared to what most do as they get older by getting a bigger home, second home on a beach/lake, etc. I'm done with managing and fixing stuff on our 1970s 2,200 ft2 home, maintaining a yard and grass (so stupid), having a huge basement that just collects crap, etc. I'm done with my stuff owning me and my time.

I fully expect a recession/big market drop starting late this year and lasting through the end of 2026. I just pray my portfolio is worth as much in early 2027 as it is now

[bagekko]

Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...

One reason I am skeptical on the state of the US economy, especially from any political source, is pretty much all the major industrial nations aren't doing so great, so how are we the only ones "looking" good. Japan for example, is F'd and been so for a while.

[JeffL0]

If you're skeptical of the government reported numbers, Shadowstats offers a different perspective, accounting for factors conveniently omitted from the "official" reporting.

Inflation:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...flation-charts

Unemployment:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...loyment-charts

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

My investment portfolio has never been so large. My paid off house is worth double what we paid back in 2007. Once my daughter is off to college in early 2027, I'm retiring at 53, my wife and I will downsize substantially and buy/build a sub 1,200 ft2 3 bedroom home with lots of windows and outside living space, do a nice standalone garage, be off the grid as much as possible with solar/wind/well water, big garden, and just enjoy an easy life.

We're going backwards compared to what most do as they get older by getting a bigger home, second home on a beach/lake, etc. I'm done with managing and fixing stuff on our 1970s 2,200 ft2 home, maintaining a yard and grass (so stupid), having a huge basement that just collects crap, etc. I'm done with my stuff owning me and my time.

I fully expect a recession/big market drop starting late this year and lasting through the end of 2026. I just pray my portfolio is worth as much in early 2027 as it is now

You are doing the right thing... i never understood older people that build large homes away from people (where its hard to get medical help) or they have a hard time keeping up with maintenance.

Originally Posted by bagekko

Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...

One reason I am skeptical on the state of the US economy, especially from any political source, is pretty much all the major industrial nations aren't doing so great, so how are we the only ones "looking" good. Japan for example, is F'd and been so for a while.

The weighing of inflation overall is bizarre because it doesn't weight cost components correctly... rent / housing payments are by far everyone's largest expense and that continues to go up... insurance is following, as are taxes which all goes hand in hand.

Cars are almost an irrelevant metric because you can always buy used for a fraction of the price and there is a ton of choice.

Food is HIGHLY selectable by people and alternate options to brands always exist... cooking at home is an option.

Gas, energy and transport are almost never optional and those continue to be high.

Appliances / electronics? not sure how that is even a relevant metric for anyone as that is almost always disposable unless you buy a wachine machine once every 10 years lol