[mact3333]

I like to know what the masses are thinking...good fade material...so the masses think this rally is fake huh...hhmm...I increase odds of making new highs later this yr from 65--->75%....

The mkts dont trade on news beyond a day...its about liquidity...its about supply-demand.

People need to realize the worse the economic news is, the happier they should feel if youre long...when the bad news keep coming in the higher odds of QE3...without QE 3 this mkt is done...I am banking the economy is doing shitty enough QE3 will come...the big money agrees with me.

[wren57]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I like to know what the masses are thinking...good fade material...so the masses think this rally is fake huh...hhmm...I increase odds of making new highs later this yr from 65--->75%....

The mkts dont trade on news beyond a day...its about liquidity...its about supply-demand.

People need to realize the worse the economic news is, the happier they should feel if youre long...when the bad news keep coming in the higher odds of QE3...without QE 3 this mkt is done...I am banking the economy is doing shitty enough QE3 will come...the big money agrees with me.

Lots of fail in this post.

So its all about liquidity, yet with good market news (less chance of QE3) and the end of QE2 the market goes up 5%?

Lots of economists have said QE2 didn't help the economy, including Greenspan; it funneled money to banks who used it to speculate, not to lend. Thus the increase in commodities which is what drove the market. Don't expect QE3 so easily.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by wren57

Lots of fail in this post.

So its all about liquidity, yet with good market news (less chance of QE3) and the end of QE2 the market goes up 5%?

Lots of economists have said QE2 didn't help the economy, including Greenspan; it funneled money to banks who used it to speculate, not to lend. Thus the increase in commodities which is what drove the market. Don't expect QE3 so easily.

In due time my friend, you will appreciate my posts more...but not today....

The mkts are going up because big boys taking bets we will get QE3 soon, as the economic news has been shit.

Of course QE2 didnt help the economy...did you think it was supposed to?...who actually got the money with QE1 and 2 and what did they use it for(you know this answer)...did it help you?..maybe if you were long the mkts it might have helped you indirectly.

We will see QE 3 and QE4...dont you get it, our economy is based on QE!...its a ponzi game...look into it.

[wren57]

I realize what you're saying, and I don't disagree with the premise, but I don't think we see QE3. There is increasing opposition from non-interested parties such as Greenspan. He still has more sway than you may think.

The effects of QE have been exposed. You think the POTUS is gonna risk transferring even MORE wealth to banks in an election year? I don't.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Will the markets be closed July 4th? And I don't think we should have QE3 but if we do then SLV will go up... I have a lot of July 16 $36 calls....

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

Short sellers must've been killed this week. I don't think next week will be this good.

Earnings reports are being released soon. With earnings reports coming out we should see further gains. Apple should come in with some pretty good numbers. Usually like this where we tank about 3-4 weeks before earnings and then start climbing back to get the prices in line before earnings get released. I believe Apple did the same thing last quarter before earnings numbers were released.

[mact3333]

Greenspan the guy who said there was no housing bubble or a internet bubble in 2000?...that guy?...Greenspan never called the shots even when he was chairmen...he is told what to do...The Fed Reserve is a private banking cartel owned by old banking families...they control the voting rights.,,,the president cannot even pick the chairmen cause its too important a position.

QE 3 might be happening as we speak, you think they need to announce it?...they announce only if they want the masses to know.....just watch the dollar, it alway speaks thr truth..it will break out the triangle soon, I am guessing to the downside soon.

See ya at new all time highs in Jan 12'.......but lets just say my kids 529 will be back in cash starting next yr....

Originally Posted by wren57

I realize what you're saying, and I don't disagree with the premise, but I don't think we see QE3. There is increasing opposition from non-interested parties such as Greenspan. He still has more sway than you may think.

The effects of QE have been exposed. You think the POTUS is gonna risk transferring even MORE wealth to banks in an election year? I don't.

[AngelinIsRich08]

I'll be getting lots of NFLX and Siri puts this week. Siri puts at $2 that will expire July 16 and NFLX $250 puts that expire July 16 as well. Will tell you how they go but the jobs reports will cause the markets to fall at least 120 points (Dow).

[AngelinIsRich08]

Wow. So glad I didn't buy those NFLX and CSCO puts. Does anyone see what NFLX is at now??? Up 6% today, or $15. I'll still get a put for it in anticipation to the jobs reports.

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

Wow. So glad I didn't buy those NFLX and CSCO puts. Does anyone see what NFLX is at now??? Up 6% today, or $15. I'll still get a put for it in anticipation to the jobs reports.

NFLX calls are up nicely and so are the RENN and DANG calls.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RENN

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEANG

[AngelinIsRich08]

NFLX up 8% because they're expanding to dozens of other countries. Support seems to be at $277 but a put a $280 or $275 is reasonable for me. I'm laughing now because the markets don't know if they should rally or not. But Friday will set back the markets by a lot. The WSJ has an article about how dismal and slow this "recovery" is.

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

NFLX up 8% because they're expanding to dozens of other countries. Support seems to be at $277 but a put a $280 or $275 is reasonable for me. I'm laughing now because the markets don't know if they should rally or not. But Friday will set back the markets by a lot. The WSJ has an article about how dismal and slow this "recovery" is.

NFLX wants to hit that magic $300 mark and i think it will or at least come close to it.

[persian54]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying thousands of NFLX at 100

then not buying it at 200

and then not buying it at 250

wtf... I know they're expanding and they're going to grow, but they really just seem too expensive IMO..but then it keeps rising and rising and rising..

[mact3333]

Last week was good price wise but volume wise it was abit weak...we should see some early weakness this week but as long as 1300-05 holds, we should be in business for the rally for second half of this yr...if we dont hold 1300 we will prob get choppy mkt again.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Originally Posted by persian54

I'm still kicking myself for not buying thousands of NFLX at 100

then not buying it at 200

and then not buying it at 250

wtf... I know they're expanding and they're going to grow, but they really just seem too expensive IMO..but then it keeps rising and rising and rising..

I was in the exact same position as you. To tell you the truth I made about $8k with Netflix early this year and sold at around $210 thinking it was too high and would soon drop. I made the wrong decision. Lol. And Google was $469 a few weeks ago. Now it's $531.

[AngelinIsRich08]

Don't expect these to last too long. With job reports coming out Friday they'll drop and the markets don't know if they want to rally or not. They're mostly down today though.

[wren57]

I re-opened a sizable SPXU position today at 14.85. One week target of 15.40.

[AngelinIsRich08]

I added the other half of my SPS holdings.

[AngelinIsRich08]

*SDS*

[wren57]

My only concern is the jobs report. I think it will spook the market and cause the week to sell off in anticipation of such. However, if it isn't as bad as expected it could be a huge upwards catalyst. So hopefully I can close out by Thursday afternoon.

[scorcherjf]

Ah fundamental vs. technical analysis... if one is making blind predictions based on not much, is that much different than predictions based on a certain indicator doing something specific (like breaching a bollinger band)?

So EVERY time the SPX falls below 30% it USUALLY marks a bottom? That can be reduced to "usually when A happens, B happens" which is dangerously close to one of those "recommendations based on air."

Anyway, I mean no disrespect. I'm a firm believer in both fundamental and technical analysis when used in a logical way but do you have any financial or economic insight as to why you think there's a bottom forming at certain times or why the VIX breaking a +2 standard deviation is meaningful? Are you assuming that VIX levels are normally distributed?

Originally Posted by mact3333

This thread is meant for stock mkt trading based on technicals and other rational theories....not meant for blindly making recommendations based on air...we will all be right and wrong, but here lets at least have a reason why we think the way we do.

I posted this chart 1-2 wks ago and this was one of the reasons a long position was reasonable at the time.

the % of SPX stocks trading below the 50 day moving avg can sniff out bottoms...every time it goes below 30% usually marks a bottom...also need to watch blow off tops in the VIX(watch if its trading above 2 standard deviations above the mean).

I usually post on trading boards but since I spend alot of time on here, I will start a thread here.

http://screencast.com/t/3kiho4tgNrw

[mact3333]

You have to look at market delta charts and effective volume charts...they tell you what the big boys are doing...high price range/expansion without volume expansion means its shorts covering and that there is no inherent buying from bulls...2-3 wks ago when bears were salivating I was here telling people to go long...when bearish sentiment reaches extremes and you see a certain % breached on % of stocks trading over 50 day moving avg, that tells you all the bulls have capitulated and there are no more bears to bring it down...hence you get buying pressure...each chart tells a story, youre job is to figure it out on your own with some guidance of course.

Originally Posted by scorcherjf

Ah fundamental vs. technical analysis... if one is making blind predictions based on not much, is that much different than predictions based on a certain indicator doing something specific (like breaching a bollinger band)?

So EVERY time the SPX falls below 30% it USUALLY marks a bottom? That can be reduced to "usually when A happens, B happens" which is dangerously close to one of those "recommendations based on air."

Anyway, I mean no disrespect. I'm a firm believer in both fundamental and technical analysis when used in a logical way but do you have any financial or economic insight as to why you think there's a bottom forming at certain times or why the VIX breaking a +2 standard deviation is meaningful? Are you assuming that VIX levels are normally distributed?