[omega2733]

Originally Posted by CTinline-six

This. Right now they are realizing they can save money by getting rid of building leases. Once they can offer fully remote work at lower wages than the employees they are paying now, they will.

A ton of employers (mine included) are not even considering full time remote for the majority of the workforce, they want control. Those that are will reduce salary some but there's still a huge deficiency of real senior engineers.

Employees at google average 250-400k (largest average, some much higher) in HCOL, but bring in on average 1.2-1.5M in revenue per employee. If they want the best they will keep paying for it. I do think it will cool a little bit (20%), but not as much as some think.

Even then, it's easy to go to a full time remote-only tech company making 150-250k+ in LCOL that buys a lot still.

[Maestro]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The housing, lumber, automotive parts, electronics, etc. shortages were caused by COVID. The world locked down and companies reacted (over-reacted in many cases) by shutting things down, laying off people, rental car companies selling fleets, etc. The world came out of the lock-downs quicker than expected and it has caused major supply issues. It will take time to ramp up production, hire/train people, etc.

With respect to housing, the demand initially plummeted early to mid and many homeowners were reluctant to sell for a number of cautious reasons. The inventory went down dramatically and then in late 2020, the demand for homes took off, but sellers simply weren't there. Then factor in all the people renovating their homes, building depts. having limited staff to approve new builds, few contractors available to build homes (because they were busy renovating), etc. etc. and you get the supply issue weren't facing.

My wife and I have been looking for a new home since October 2019 and been actively going through the process since that time. We have seen just how nuts things have become and have decided to wait it out now because we're not interested in paying 20+% over appraised/assessed value. People are being absolutely stupid paying so much for homes (and cars). Think about all that extra property tax you'll be stuck with. Higher insurance costs. Dumb.

We're probably 4 to 6 months from some equilibrium and those the paid so high now and are really going to regret it.

Barring some unexpected X-factor COVID variant that evades immunity and is way more deadly, things will improve slowly. With that said, things could get hairy overseas, especially in China and Asia. Those are huge areas with big populations, much of which didn't get COVID because of extreme lock-downs. COVID is sitting on the other side of the door, waiting patiently. Those countries simply don't have the means to vaccinate and the vaccines they have are largely ineffective. Like with what's going on in Australia and New Zealand, China and other Asia countries will be in perpetual states of lock-down until either they get a good vaccine or they come to terms that you can't control COVID with lock-downs. The constant lock-downs in places like China will have an impact on the production of goods for the next 2 to 3 years. When it comes to COVID, you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't.

We all have to realize the markets are very different in different places. In my area we did not see a drop off in house sales when covid hit, actually it went up to the point where supply dried up. Last year only the houses which were move in ready were really selling, if a home was not updated when listed they sat on the market for months. We knew we want to sell in 2 yrs since we were building and did not want to have to deal with a slow moving house so we made the decision to remodel our Master Bath and Kitchen the only two rooms in the house which we did not touch. Today we could have sold without putting a penny in, people are buying almost anything available.

I know where we are smaller builders begin switching to reno over building new, reason being was less hassle and higher profits on renos. It was definitely a perfect storm since no one expected being in a lock down people would begin fixing up their homes. Unless you were in Michigan where they bared people from buying paint and other things the state declared as non essential home repairs.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by 2 SLOW

But you make some points that don't completely add up. You pay property taxes based on what you argue the values worth to be, not what you paid for it. Our house tax value is $250k less than what we bought it for (and about $550k less than what we could sell it for).

And you pay for insurance based on the cost to rebuild, not necessarily the market value.

Yes and no and maybe things are different where you're at. When we bought our house 15 years ago, it was listed at $222K, but county had the assessed value at $190K. The house appraised at $210K. We paid $220K and the only way we got the house was because we had a 30% down payment. Otherwise, the back wouldn't loan the money. On the next county assessment, our house was assessed at $220K. Funny how it works. At the time, we had the most expensive house in the neighborhood by $40K (though admittedly, it was by far one of the nicest at the time). Neighbors thought we were nuts though.

In the same county, a colleague bought a home in March of this year for $550K. List price was $490K. A bidding war ensued and they paid dearly. The 2021 county assessed value was $450K. The county has indicated to my colleague that the 2022 assessed value will likely be between $530K to $550K. That's an extra ~$500-$600/yr he wasn't expecting to pay.

We live in the richest county (by a mile) in Kansas and that county wants their money so they'll almost always make the numbers work.......much like the banks and evil realtors.

Regarding insurance, yes, you pay for the cost to rebuild, but assessed/appraised value does play a role to some extent.

[upstatedoc]

Man, I think I could get a small fortune from my house. Maybe I'll buy a motorhome To live in and park it at Walmart for the time being.

[dscabra]

Home prices are insane right now due to the shortage of homes on the market and the increased cost of building materials. If I were trying to buy my home today, I'd likely not be able to afford it. Homes in my very desirable neighborhood are priced about 48% above other comparable homes in my zip code.



Unfortunately, the only real effect of these soaring values for me is an increased tax liability.

[F32Fleet]

Approx 2k-2500 sqft 3/2 with detached 2-car garage.

Metal roof preferred.

[CTinline-six]

Originally Posted by omega2733

A ton of employers (mine included) are not even considering full time remote for the majority of the workforce, they want control. Those that are will reduce salary some but there's still a huge deficiency of real senior engineers.

Employees at google average 250-400k (largest average, some much higher) in HCOL, but bring in on average 1.2-1.5M in revenue per employee. If they want the best they will keep paying for it. I do think it will cool a little bit (20%), but not as much as some think.

Even then, it's easy to go to a full time remote-only tech company making 150-250k+ in LCOL that buys a lot still.

Agree about the control, but then again there are plenty of tech tools in place if they want to control people remotely. Some might even say it is easier to control people remotely than just having a bunch of employees in an office and hope they are working.

For example, many companies have policies on PCs that require you to sign in and out of your VPN to access company devices. Each time you sign in/out it creates a log accessed by your supervisor. Group policies put on PCs put the computer screen to sleep after 10 minutes of inactivity, which can also be seen in the logs, and will show the user as "away" on Teams, Outlook, or Zoom. My PC has a bluetooth connection with my phone, and if my phone leaves my office the computer locks itself.

There are lots of options out there for control and monitoring employees remotely. We even have programs where you can remote into PCs without the user knowing.

[spazzyfry123]

We're running into the same question right now. Married couple that both work from home (regardless of the Rona) with a nine month old. We bought a modest home (~1500 sqft 3/2 on a slab in 0.5 acre with an attached 2 car garage) in a highly desirable neighborhood right as everything started hitting in February 2020 with the intention of a relatively short stay as a pit stop waiting for the next job to open up.

On paper, 1500 seems to be a great number, but I feel like a privileged asswipe in saying it's just not enough. It's our work space, unwind space, play space, storage space, project space...It's more than just a place to sleep and store our things. We just need more.

So what do we need? Our next move will be intended to be a bit more permanent (as permanent as I can plan for at our younger age at least). We'll likely have another kid at some point with my wife transitioning into a stay-at-home type and probable home-schooling.

Large kitchen, dedicated office space, 4 bedroom minimum, full basement, hopeful three car garage, family area...holy crap, you mean to tell me I need a McMansion?? What happened to me? I'm going to need one of those "I used to be cool" stickers to put on my Prius. I'll be permanently wearing Polos and deciding my next golf club to show off to Mr. Jones in no time

Come March 2020, news pushed for a full lockdown and I figure I'm stuck taking a bath when it comes time to sell. Fast forward to today and I've seen a 15% value increase for my neighborhood with the most recent house under contract a couple houses down for about $160k more than I purchased mine for just a year ago. We saw no slowdown whatsoever.

Now the new job is opening up sooner than expected with a relocation to a drastically different market with significantly higher COL than was seen in the anticipated areas just a year ago (same anywhere I'm sure). I have a bit of sticker shock. We had been looking in western North Carolina - although the new job will likely give us freedom to live anywhere in either of the Carolinas.

Hopefully commodities will slow their pace and give us some freedom to potentially build or soften the market, but I'm not holding my breath. Time to live in a motorhome with our junk in PODS until we find our way out of the stratosphere...

[Bruuuce]

I think it will be interesting to see how the work from home things sways the home values. Going up now as people think they will be at home for ever and need that extra space. But going back to an office I think I inevitable for the greater majority of people. Mostly for real estate values overall.

Overall, I think we will need to go back to offices or the commercial real estate market will crash, then the residential market will crash surrounding the near commercial real estate. The pay a higher cost for a home because it's close to work thing. Should be interesting to watch.

I also liked the comment about foreclosures happening soon. Thinking the lack of homes on the market rolled right into that one as well.

As always, buy based on location, IMHO. Location close to fun, more to my preference.

[FNR32]

Originally Posted by upstatedoc

4000 ft.² you can stuff a lot more kids in there. Get busy!

We're actively working on it! In fact, we have more practice coming up this evening

[jmg]

We have a 2400 sq/ft 3 Bed, 2.5 bath, 3 car garage. Our master is as big as our first studio apartment together, a bedroom for our son and a home office/man cave for me where I WFH. 3 car garage plus driveway fits our 4 cars. I think I will always want a 3 car garage. We have a large SUV for family hauling, my daily, my fun weekend/track car and a beater. Honestly the house is the perfect size for us and the only thing I think is missing is a pool and hot tub.

As far as retirement, we would downsize to something smaller most notable a single story. Don't want to break a hip on stairs at 70yo. I think I would still want a man cave and guest bedroom for visiting family, so 3 bedroom minimum.

I would probably have to move somewhere cheaper too. We bought our home 8 years ago for $500k. Even before covid, comps were in the $800k-$850 range and now it's bonkers with $1 million all around us. Insane.

[dscabra]

Originally Posted by JJ 911SC

Sound great, any pics?

The deck is ready to party! I still need to install the fan, but stone and paint completed today!

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by upstatedoc

Man, I think I could get a small fortune from my house. Maybe I'll buy a motorhome To live in and park it at Walmart for the time being.

Oh nay nay! More and more Walmarts (and other places that use to allow it) are putting a stop to overnight parking in their lots. That being said you can still go park out in the desert somewhere like Quartzsite AZ for free.

Selling our FL house and moving to NC full time is looking more attractive everyday. Just got some flyer in the mail about a house in our community selling for over $600k. Highest ever price for any home in that community. We paid like $210k for our house in 2011.

[kscarrol]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

Selling our FL house and moving to NC full time is looking more attractive everyday.

...

[nowayout]

I think 1200 Sq Ft is all you need for 2 people. Not counting garage, deck etc.

[NEfan508]

Empty nesters should Just rebuild on home base, (my dream) pros/cons always clean and properly maintained vehicles but she would divorce me (tempting)

(Reposted from lol thread)

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by NEfan508

...pros/cons always clean and properly maintained vehicles but she would divorce me (tempting)

(Reposted from lol thread)

Did you hack my computer?!?!?!? This is more or less the EXACT plan for our retirement barndominium! The only difference is that I would swap the kitchen and bathroom locations, use "L" shaped counters in the kitchen, omit the kitchen walls, and have it open to the garage areas with a diagonal serving island. Remember to keep a clear lane between the garage door and kitchen, so that you can drive right in to unload groceries straight from the trunk.

As for divorce, my DW would be filing in a minute if I showed her that floor plan...because it doesn't have lift locations and a slop sink marked out!!!!!

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by NEfan508

Empty nesters should Just rebuild on home base, (my dream) pros/cons always clean and properly maintained vehicles but she would divorce me (tempting)

(Reposted from lol thread)

Kick the kids out and would suit me and other half fine

[Bunnny]

Originally Posted by NEfan508

Empty nesters should Just rebuild on home base, (my dream) pros/cons always clean and properly maintained vehicles but she would divorce me (tempting)

(Reposted from lol thread)

This place looks AWESOME! I wish I could find that for all my cars. :P
My husband and I are skipping on kids, and just about to list our 2400 sq ft home, and downsize to 1000 sq feet or less. Our plan is to rent cheaply for a bit while saving for a boat to sail and live off of. Sail a few years & maybe find somewhere to call permanent home.

[JP10]

Going back to the conversation of supply and demand as well as rising home prices, I've been continuing to monitor the houses in my area that are for sale as well as discussing with some realtor friends. Over the last week or two, I have seen much more houses come onto the market - also seems that they are staying on the market and the house prices are more "reasonable" (still high though). Maybe, just maybe, I am finally seeing the market beginning to plateau in my area which is definitely good for someone in my shoes (looking, but patiently).

I was just wondering if anyone else has noticed similar trends in their area?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by JP10

Going back to the conversation of supply and demand as well as rising home prices, I've been continuing to monitor the houses in my area that are for sale as well as discussing with some realtor friends. Over the last week or two, I have seen much more houses come onto the market - also seems that they are staying on the market and the house prices are more "reasonable" (still high though). Maybe, just maybe, I am finally seeing the market beginning to plateau in my area which is definitely good for someone in my shoes (looking, but patiently).

I was just wondering if anyone else has noticed similar trends in their area?

I don't think it has calmed down much in Kansas City. Yes, listing prices seem reasonable but that is by design. The realtors set a reasonable price, sometimes even a bit low, with the hopes of creating a bidding war. The home then sells for 10%-20% higher. That's still the case now according to my realtor who's been helping us find a home since October 2019.

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by JP10

I was just wondering if anyone else has noticed similar trends in their area?

My DW is assisting the family of our elderly neighbors down the street with cleaning up and selling their house. It has been listed with a real estate agent that we know/recommended for 4 weeks now, shown almost every day, and so far there have been ZERO offers.

Back in May, there would have been 5 people in a bidding war within a week according to multiple real estate agents in the area!

Our region is a 1.5 - 3 hour drive out of NYC, and has been #1 in the entire nation in terms of house cost increases because of city folks fleeing COVID. As I speculated, as soon as the masks came off due to vaccination, the panic demand has waned and that party is over.....