[gonzo]

The woman that said all the leaves are gone was a bit off.

St Thomas:

Turks and Caicos is, soon, in trouble.

[RickFLM4]

I know you're not supposed to focus on the red line (but everyone does). Last night it was running within a mile of my house to the west. (Right near Aero Club Drive.) This morning it is a couple of miles east. Progress?

(I take a little comfort in knowing we are still a few days away so this is almost certainly not accurate at this time. In other words, rather be near the red line today than Sunday! Also, all prep is done except for bringing stuff in from patio so that's why I have time to post stupid stuff like this today.)

[Alfisti]

Man this is getting bad, some islands are being flattened. It's running right over the top of them.

[kscarrol]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I know you're not supposed to focus on the red line (but everyone does). Last night it was running within a mile of my house to the west. (Right near Aero Club Drive.) This morning it is a couple of miles east. Progress?

(I take a little comfort in knowing we are still a few days away so this is almost certainly not accurate at this time. In other words, rather be near the red line today than Sunday! Also, all prep is done except for bringing stuff in from patio so that's why I have time to post stupid stuff like this today.)

As The Donald would say... That's a HUUUGE difference! No need to pull in that patio furniture now.

[elistan]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

I think they lie about these trajectory. This bitch was suppose to be getting here by Friday a few days ago, then Saturday now its like freaking Sunday. It's not like its slowing down, if anything its speeding up. Was around 14mph and on the latest update its at 16mph.

Assuming the 'getting here by Friday' refers to the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds, yes, that was projected at one time as early Friday morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017...sonable_toa_34

Step through the animation frames towards the end and you can see the cone of uncertainty being over Florida for the first time Thursday 8pm, but as the model progresses you'll see the time bands shift to the east, with Saturday morning / Friday night being the current earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force winds.

This is different from the most likely (as opposed to earliest reasonable) arrival time of tropical storm force winds.

Here's that animation:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017..._likely_toa_34

On Sunday, they projected the most like arrival time of tropical storm force winds to hit Florida Friday morning instead of Thursday night, but as the storm progressed the time kept getting pushed back.

This isn't because they were lying on Sunday - rather, they are refining the models as steering winds shif, particularly things like high pressure areas and fronts over the continental US.

Perhaps the nuanced differences between 'earliest reasonable' and 'most likely' arrival times can sound like lying, and perhaps the differences between projections a week ago and projections today can sound like lying, but it's not lying - it's a reflection of the difficulty of projecting chaotic weather. And there's quite a large difference between the arrival time of tropical storm force winds and the arrival time of the hurricane eye, as well.

Here's a good high-level explanation of how the modeling process works:

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by kscarrol

As The Donald would say... That's a HUUUGE difference! No need to pull in that patio furniture now.

Yep, we'll move stuff Friday night or Saturday morning unless we get lucky and Irma takes a sharp right turn like a woman who just remembered she forgot something at home. In the meantime, just taking tons of pictures inside and out.

[ASAP]

Looks like my flight to England and all flights for the most part are still good... but holy fuck are they gouging prices on tickets. One way tix to the North are up to $1500 per person... Jetblue seems to be the only noble warrior as they set up special $99 one way flights to get everyone out of harms way.

[nyalpine90]

Irma go home!

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Looks like my flight to England and all flights for the most part are still good... but holy fuck are they gouging prices on tickets. One way tix to the North are up to $1500 per person... Jetblue seems to be the only noble warrior as they set up special $99 one way flights to get everyone out of harms way.

Good news! Sounds like American and other airlines are starting to announce which flights are cancelled so good thing your flight is tonight. Have a great trip.

[IndotagSwizz]

IF ANYBODY NEEDS WATER IN THE HIALEAH AREA, or would like to come to Hialeah and get free water just bring the empty jugs or bottles, I have a Crystal Springs system (one of those office ones) you can get your water for free and don't have to kill yourself in line.

[UncleWede]

Originally Posted by anglo

Not looking good, now we have 3 active hurricanes our way.

But NOBODY mentions Katia because Mexico. . .

[BavarianDevil]

Reason 21 why I don't live in Florida. The other 20 are even bigger reasons. I'll take my chances with earthquakes here in Nor Cal. Our prayers are with you.

[nyalpine90]

Originally Posted by BavarianDevil

Reason 21 why I don't live in Florida. The other 20 are even bigger reasons. I'll take my chances with earthquakes here in Nor Cal. Our prayers are with you.

earthquakes create sink holes, mess up foundation of homes. you forgot to say forest fires.
most homes in florida are built to storm codes and high chance surviving storm.
water damage isnt as bad, house collapsing from underneath is worse.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by nyalpine90

earthquakes create sink holes, mess up foundation of homes. you forgot to say forest fires.
most homes in florida are built to storm codes and high chance surviving storm.
water damage isnt as bad, house collapsing from underneath is worse.

Not to mention time to prepare or evacuate...

[gonzo]

A. You get a reasonable amount of time to hightail it out of harms way.
B. No real warning. The earth shakes and splits the ground open.

A please.

[elistan]

Originally Posted by UncleWede

But NOBODY mentions Katia because Mexico. . .

Actually, I suspect nobody is talking about Katia not because of its location but rather because it's 'only' a cat 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 80 mph around the eye and a small extent of tropical storm winds. There will be rain and wind, but likely only minor property damage and probably no loss of life. (Although I've really no idea how well that area can handle the amount of projected rain they'll get.)

[Mr Tonka]

Originally Posted by BavarianDevil

Reason 21 why I don't live in Florida. The other 20 are even bigger reasons. I'll take my chances with earthquakes here in Nor Cal. Our prayers are with you.

We're happy you're safe and sound in NorCal. Enjoy the weekend.

[Mr Tonka]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Looks like my flight to England and all flights for the most part are still good... but holy fuck are they gouging prices on tickets. One way tix to the North are up to $1500 per person... Jetblue seems to be the only noble warrior as they set up special $99 one way flights to get everyone out of harms way.

https://flightaware.com/live/airport...t?airport=KDAB

[mookie45]

Checked 2 days ago to fly out of Miami on today and yes, it is 100% price gouging and illegal what they are doing to potential victims. $1500 to go to Denver and $1700 to go to San Fran?!

How can these companies take advantage of people in distress? Someone needs to crack down on this because it's BS. Local super markets and gas stations have a hot line to report price gouging, why can't they implement something similar to airlines?

Regardless, I am making my move now because tomorrow is too late for the definitive answer. Driving to Tallahassee. Maybe catch my Noles play some football this weekend.

Good luck everyone and please be safe!

[Naz24]

Originally Posted by Mr Tonka

We're happy you're safe and sound in NorCal. Enjoy the weekend.

Yeah now is not the time to make jokes about why he doesnt want to live in FL....

[IndotagSwizz]

Originally Posted by mookie45

Checked 2 days ago to fly out of Miami on today and yes, it is 100% price gouging and illegal what they are doing to potential victims. $1500 to go to Denver and $1700 to go to San Fran?!

How can these companies take advantage of people in distress? Someone needs to crack down on this because it's BS. Local super markets and gas stations have a hot line to report price gouging, why can't they implement something similar to airlines?

Regardless, I am making my move now because tomorrow is too late for the definitive answer. Driving to Tallahassee. Maybe catch my Noles play some football this weekend.

Good luck everyone and please be safe!

I bet these pieces of shit found some sort of loophole in the law, if not they are going to get sued, what they are doing is total bs

[elistan]

Originally Posted by mookie45

Checked 2 days ago to fly out of Miami on today and yes, it is 100% price gouging and illegal what they are doing to potential victims. $1500 to go to Denver and $1700 to go to San Fran?!

How can these companies take advantage of people in distress? Someone needs to crack down on this because it's BS. Local super markets and gas stations have a hot line to report price gouging, why can't they implement something similar to airlines?

Regardless, I am making my move now because tomorrow is too late for the definitive answer. Driving to Tallahassee. Maybe catch my Noles play some football this weekend.

Good luck everyone and please be safe!

Some speculation I've heard is that the airlines aren't doing this manually, rather they have pricing algorithms that adjust costs based on demand - so when demand skyrockets, prices go up as well.

Of course, if true that then raises the question of why they left these algorithms in place when they knew there would be a demand spike due to a major storm...