[gonzo]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

Hopefully it's not like Bieber having a chrome Fisker. But a convenient fire in his might mean we get a decent team back.

Doubtful.

I was goofing on his last face lift regarding the scalpel bit.
He drives a black suburban or did when I lived in Turtle Creek.
He eats at Lucky's Dinner often and I would see him.

[secretsquirrel]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Look past 100,000 miles though, which helps amortize the initial purchase price of either car, and if a battery replacement is needed for the Tesla, the numbers further skew toward the gas-powered F10. Tesla offers an upfront financing purchase (i.e. it’s wrapped into the car payment) of a replacement battery at 100,000 miles, meaning if the battery depletes past the warranty period, you can have the replacement battery installed for no additional cost when the original one wears out. This is obviously a ploy to prevent sticker shock of a new $10K battery once the original one is depleted, because you’ve already paid for it in the monthly car payment.

So my evaluation of the Tesla offering is that there are some smoke and mirrors to it.

Battery technology is improving yearly. In 10 years batteries are going to be more powerful and cheaper than they are today. Telsa knows this and is making serious money from people prepaying.

Mercedes sees the writing on the wall and is working with Telsa. I suspect many other companies are also. Once Telsa completes their supercharger network, other companies will buy in to share the technology. This is a game changer.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

Other than the initial purchase price of the cars being quite a bit different, I don't see how this spread is possible, unless your electricity rates are much greater than the national average, or your E90 gets much better mileage than I'm estimating.

25mpg at 3.70 per gallon for 194k would be around $28,712 in gas.

194k miles at 12 cents per KWh would be around $5,321 in electricity.

That's a $23,391 difference. Figure in the $600 checkups (which I too never heard of) and the difference shrinks to $14,097.

So I guess if you're shopping in price ranges of cars that vary that greatly then I can see why it wouldn't make sense. But even packing in there a battery replacement at 10k, you're still 4k in the black with the Tesla, again assuming the cost to purchase is roughly the same.

Maintenance on the Tesla should be rather minimal. Hell on my Volt the first thing I need to do that isn't related to the gas generator is to replace the battery cooling fluid at 150k miles.

If we're talking different purchase costs, then that argument can be made about any two cars that essentially perform the same function. Why an E90 of a Prius?

I guess I'd be curious to see how you came to your numbers, as I'm not seeing it, which isn't to say there is logic I missed.

E90 Post doesn't let you post Excel files so here's a pic of my calculations.

The average cost per charge is based on 11 cents per kilowatt-hr where I live (the national average is 12 cents) and I used Tesla's website charging calculator. The maintenance cost is estimated for an F10 based on my actual maintenance costs for my E90 through 194,000 miles; I then normalized the maintenance estimate for 100,000 miles. Tire cost is what I experienced for my E90 (again normalized for 100,000 miles). Fuel cost for the F10 is an estimated 26 MPG times 3.50/gal. My E90 gets 27 average on my commute. The F10 might do a bit better than 26 MPG, but the price per gallon is below the national average too. What's not in my numbers is the F10 has a turbo, which probably will require more maintenance than my E90 did. Also, my maintenance costs are a bit low since I do all my own work, so I'll call it even. As a sanity check I calculated the per-mile operating costs and it came out to 48 cents/mile (based on an average car price of $30K), the IRS deduction for business use is 55.5 cents per mile, so my per-mile cost estimate is reasonable.

What I like the Tesla for is that the fuel cost remains steady. The national average of electricity per kilowatt-hour stays pretty constant over the years, where gas price fluctuate wildly in comparison. If the numbers worked out better, I'd seriously consider one for my daily driver. I have a few other vehicles for road trips. If Tesla comes out with a 3-series priced car with 200 miles range, then I'd consider it and the battery risk.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by secretsquirrel

Battery technology is improving yearly. In 10 years batteries are going to be more powerful and cheaper than they are today. Telsa knows this and is making serious money from people prepaying.

Mercedes sees the writing on the wall and is working with Telsa. I suspect many other companies are also. Once Telsa completes their supercharger network, other companies will buy in to share the technology. This is a game changer.

Batteries might get better in 10 years or they might not, and generally the better performing battery the higher the cost to manufacture it, so it might be a wash at best. Some people may not want to play that bet.

But if you are only buying a 70K car because it's fucking cool, then none of this rational discussion really matters. I'd just say the number of potential buyers of the Tesla because the car is just fucking cool may be a limiting factor in the company's overall sales.

Considering the battery has the equivalent of 2 gallons of gasoline, it's a damned good piece of engineering to go 200 -250 miles per charge, but it is a limited purpose car in some respects.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

E90 Post doesn't let you post Excel files so here's a pic of my calculations.

The average cost per charge is based on 11 cents per kilowatt/hr where I live (the national average is 12 cents) and I used Tesla's website charging calculator. The maintenance cost is estimated for an F10 based on my actual maintenance costs for my E90 through 194,000 miles; I then normalized the maintenance estimate for 100,000 miles. Tire cost is what I experienced for my E90 (again normalized for 100,000 miles). Fuel cost for the F10 is an estimated 26 MPG times 3.50/gal. My E90 gets 27 average on my commute. The F10 might do a bit better than 26 MPG, but the price per gallon is below the national average too. What's not in my numbers is the F10 has a turbo, which probably will require more maintenance than my E90 did. Also, my maintenance costs are a bit low since I do all my own work, so I'll call it even. As a sanity check I calculated the per-mile operating costs and it came out to 48 cents/mile (based on an average car price of $30K), the IRS deduction for business use is 55.5 cents per mile, so my per-mile cost estimate is reasonable.

Good post and thanks for the information.

Your calculations show a delta of about $7k in favor of the BMW, but the vehicle costs are nearly $15k apart. I understand the comparison if we're talking about utility the car provides and potential savings, however if those are the only measures then why not make a similar comparison between a 5 series and a well-equipped Accord?

If the comparison was between a $70k BMW, and a $70k Tesla, that delta would swing in favor of the Tesla up until a battery replacement. That said, past certain miles you're outside of warranty with either so the potential for costly repairs (even if you do the work yourself) increases. More so with the BMW simply because there is more to break. I think your estimated maintenance on the BMW over 100k miles is low, but perhaps this is slanted by your good car experience history. I'd be surprised if the majority of 5 series owners made it 100k with only $2,200 in maintenance. Anyone buying an extended warranty is out more than that already.

I think in your case, with your particular comparison, you've represented your numbers accurately. However the comparison overall may not be indicated of a standard business case. Given that we're comparing cars that at the start are $15,000 apart, and by the 100k mark that difference has shrunk to half of that actually appears to speak well for the Tesla.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

But if you are only buying a 70K car because it's fucking cool, then none of this rational discussion really matters. I'd just say the number of potential buyers of the Tesla because the car is just fucking cool may be a limiting factor in the company's overall sales.

Considering the battery has the equivalent of 2 gallons of gasoline, it's a damned good piece of engineering to go 200 -250 miles per charge, but it is a limited purpose car in some respects.

I agree with that. But really, the same can be said for buying a BMW anyways right? I mean why buy it over a Toyota Avalon? Is the reliability or cost of entry and ownership any cheaper? What does the BMW provide that other, cheaper sedans do not in terms of pure functionality?

[Kayani_1]

Hmmmm......your definition of cool or those of that demographic is much different then mine. Tesla S might be cool among Toyota Prius crowd not among most general people or enthusiast crowd.

However, I doubt anybody drools over it There are more people who drool over cars that make Tesla S look uncool such as Audi R8, M5/M6, CLS/E AMG, RS5/RS7, Viper SRT 8 or GTS, Stingray C7, Porsche 911 GT3, Maserati Granturismo S......etc....etc.

Also, cursing in your post does not make your argument valid. In fact it diminishes it.

Originally Posted by F32

This.

If you don't live in SF or Silicon Valley, then you don't know enough Tesla owner to make any meaningful judgement. What you end up with are moronic thoughts like we see above.

No one buys a Tesla to save money on gas. No one buys a Tesla for its performance. And, in fact, no one who has a Tesla really cross-shopped it with anything else. People buy them because they're just fucking cool. If you're a mid-level manager or above at any tech company in the valley, there is no car that is more fitting.

[Kayani_1]

I guess I am in a different category then cause I love taking road trips in my cars. Just recently took a road trip from Houston to California total of 3600 miles round trip over 2 weeks.

It was lots of fun great bonding time with my son as it was just two of us and, lots of site seeing and things you would just simply miss flying over the land in few hours. If you plan it out right it can be an adventure with lots of fun family time. You should try it sometime......great fun


P.S. I got 26.9 mpg on 3600 mile trip in my tuned E92 not bad for a car around 400hp/400 lb-ft appx. and the drive felt so stress free thanks to great driving dynamics of the car.

Originally Posted by chumley

This is a popular but weak argument. Even Tesla execs would conceded that at this time there are certainly people whose driving habits do not necessarily fit to this category of vehicle.

Having said that, I grew up taking long family trips ala The Griswold's but I don't know a single person who does this anymore. Obviously people do but I'm guessing they don't expect to do it in a Model S. It's not like the interstates are clogged with families who load the kids and dog in their M5's to drive cross country.

I doubt I'd buy one but I'd be a perfect candidate. 5 miles each way to work, maybe 25-50 miles of errands on the weekends and haven't ever left the state in my car. Anything over 3-4 hours in a car and I'm flying!

[b0bab0i]

Originally Posted by Kayani_1

I guess I am in a different category then cause I love taking road trips in my cars. Just recently took a road trip from Houston to California total of 3600 miles round trip over 2 weeks.

It was lots of fun great bonding time with my son as it was just two of us and, lots of site seeing and things you would just simply miss flying over the land in few hours. If you plant it out right it can be an adventure with lots of fun family time. You should try it sometime......great fun


P.S. I got 26.9 mpg on 3600 mile trip in my tuned E92 not bad for a car around 400hp/400 lb-ft appx. and the drive felt so stress free thanks to great driving dynamics of the car.

From your comments in this thread and the N54 vs 2JZ thread, I now know that you are not a car enthusiast, but just a BMW Fanboy.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

Good post and thanks for the information.

Your calculations show a delta of about $7k in favor of the BMW, but the vehicle costs are nearly $15k apart. I understand the comparison if we're talking about utility the car provides and potential savings, however if those are the only measures then why not make a similar comparison between a 5 series and a well-equipped Accord?

If the comparison was between a $70k BMW, and a $70k Tesla, that delta would swing in favor of the Tesla up until a battery replacement. That said, past certain miles you're outside of warranty with either so the potential for costly repairs (even if you do the work yourself) increases. More so with the BMW simply because there is more to break. I think your estimated maintenance on the BMW over 100k miles is low, but perhaps this is slanted by your good car experience history. I'd be surprised if the majority of 5 series owners made it 100k with only $2,200 in maintenance. Anyone buying an extended warranty is out more than that already.

I think in your case, with your particular comparison, you've represented your numbers accurately. However the comparison overall may not be indicated of a standard business case. Given that we're comparing cars that at the start are $15,000 apart, and by the 100k mark that difference has shrunk to half of that actually appears to speak well for the Tesla.

Oh, I whole heartedly agree, compare two $70K cars and the Tesla appears to win the contest, other than the utility issue that you really can't take a road trip in the Tesla, and some question regarding the battery longevity and degradation in electrical energy storage capacity. The problem is, today the $60K+ S is the only model offered that is comparable to other sport sedans, which makes it not the economical choice for me. Like I said, throw in a 3-Series sized and priced Tesla C(?) and the picture entirely changes. As with all things, the progression of time usually makes it better.

All that said, my ideal situation is to get the ICE technology half again improved efficiency up to 90% and it would serve us all well IMO.

[Kayani_1]

Is personal attacks all you have when your point is weak in a discussion and you don't get your way........growup

Originally Posted by b0bab0i

From your comments in this thread and the N54 vs 2JZ thread, I now know that you are not a car enthusiast, but just a BMW Fanboy.

[KnoxDawg]

Originally Posted by gonzo

As said above, the car is out of reach for those really trying to make a difference.
Beverly Hills Von Dutch version of electric cars.

Btw. Those idiotic Von Dutch hats were ugly.
Sheep...baaaaa .
No style, just followers.

+1,000

[chumley]

Originally Posted by b0bab0i

From your comments in this thread and the N54 vs 2JZ thread, I now know that you are not a car enthusiast, but just a BMW Fanboy.

That's a bit harsh

Really, I think some are just missing the point completely and judging from the examples must just be from a different demographic or live somewhere different.

This isn't a car that requires analysis via spreadsheet. When the next model comes out that is being billed as the more practical, affordable alternative then sure, compare away. NO ONE who buys this car does an analysis on cost per mile any more than the people who bought the original roadster at 2x the price did.

Even if you exclude the group of people who can't afford to buy a 5 series or E class but can somehow come up with enough $$ to lease one, there's still plenty of 1%'ers to keep them busy building cars for the next couple years.

As far as cool factor, again some of you guys have no clue and spend too much time reading car magazines. I'm fortunate enough to live in a very affluent area. An area that is the polar opposite of the pretentious flash of places like Miami. Maserati's, Aston Martin, Bentleys are daily sightings and are far less unique than the Tesla is and, believe it or not, attract far less attention. Probably won't be that way forever but "cool" to the group of people that can write a $100k check for what will likely be a 4th or 5th car has nothing to do with 0-60 times or even sticker price.

The guy I know who's getting one around the end of the month is dumping his S63 AMG for it and he's a guy who has owned more cars than most people will in 2-3 lifetimes. He likes the way it looks, he's driven it and by the time you get to that level, you're looking for something new. Time will tell whether it sticks.

[rayg]

Originally Posted by Kayani_1

I guess I am in a different category then cause I love taking road trips in my cars. Just recently took a road trip from Houston to California total of 3600 miles round trip over 2 weeks.

I'd much rather do the less expensive airfare (in both money and more importantly time) and spend more time actually doing stuff rather than sitting in a car...but that's just me.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by chumley

That's a bit harsh

Really, I think some are just missing the point completely and judging from the examples must just be from a different demographic or live somewhere different.

This isn't a car that requires analysis via spreadsheet. When the next model comes out that is being billed as the more practical, affordable alternative then sure, compare away. NO ONE who buys this car does an analysis on cost per mile any more than the people who bought the original roadster at 2x the price did.

Even if you exclude the group of people who can't afford to buy a 5 series or E class but can somehow come up with enough $$ to lease one, there's still plenty of 1%'ers to keep them busy building cars for the next couple years.

As far as cool factor, again some of you guys have no clue and spend too much time reading car magazines. I'm fortunate enough to live in a very affluent area. An area that is the polar opposite of the pretentious flash of places like Miami. Maserati's, Aston Martin, Bentleys are daily sightings and are far less unique than the Tesla is and, believe it or not, attract far less attention. Probably won't be that way forever but "cool" to the group of people that can write a $100k check for what will likely be a 4th or 5th car has nothing to do with 0-60 times or even sticker price.

The guy I know who's getting one around the end of the month is dumping his S63 AMG for it and he's a guy who has owned more cars than most people will in 2-3 lifetimes. He likes the way it looks, he's driven it and by the time you get to that level, you're looking for something new. Time will tell whether it sticks.

So your spreadsheet comment is targeted at me, and I'd like to counter the comment. I believe you are mistaken.

Why wouldn't the Tesla S be a car one analyzes with a spreadsheet? I think it is exactly a car to be analyzed by a cost of ownership calculation. The S is the first electric car that comes close to offering sufficient range to possibly use it as a primary car. It is a 4-door sedan with a 3-row seating option for a larger family. The Tesla company is supposedly building a network of supercharger stations across the country on major interstates to support the use of the car for long-distance travel. So the car is being offered not as some rich-dude toy, or electric-vehicle curiosity tidbit, but as a legitimate replacement for an ICE-powered vehicle. All the information provided on Tesla's website is geared toward convincing the buyer why owning an EV is a financially viable option. In fact, the Tesla website has very little "green technology" crap on it and is fully geared toward the cost of ownership to use an EV instead of a petrol-powered car. So if one were considering switching from a petro-powered car to an EV, it's a natural consideration to evaluate the cost benefit of switching to EV. What Tesla's website doesn't say is, "Hey, we've built a fucking really cool car, so just buy it because it's really fucking cool."

Originally the S was being offered with three battery sizes in 45, 60, and 85kWh, all priced about $10K apart from each other. Tesla apparently hasn't recognized enough orders for the 45kWh version and has decided to drop that "trim" level. Apparently the 140-mile range is not a viable alternative for people considering EVs (dang, there's that comparative shopping thing again!).

The 60kWh trim offers usable range for a semi-reasonable price of just north of $60,000. My thought was I'd never buy a $60,000 car for the commute I put my car though, which is 170 miles/day and about 33,000 miles a year. However, considering the Tesla S's supposed lower operating costs for fuel and theoretical near-zero maintenance cost (I thought), the total life cycle cost equation could balance out with a high purchase price vs. low operating cost. Hence the need to layout the calculations and compare the numbers.

Sure, there are much less expensive cars that will fit the bill for my commute at a far less total life-cycle cost, but the trade off is generally $15K - $25K cars are not vehicles one would want to spend 20 hours a week commuting in. And for my particular commute that starts in the boondocks with excellent back-country roads (BMWs were made for) and heads to a large city with all the traffic that garners, my preference is to have a nice driving car to help entertain me during the commute. My E90 fits those needs perfectly, but it would not have been my 1st choice. The issue was my car was 18 months and 22,000 miles old when I changed commutes, which considering the deprecation hit, it was not best economical choice to change vehicles at the time. Yup, the Tesla S is not in the same class as a 3-Series, but it's the only car Tesla offers right now, so it is the one I used to compare switching to an EV. Hence the need to layout the calculations and compare the numbers.

Most wealthy people I know do cost benefit analysis on most aspects of their lives; it’s why they became wealthy…

[Soorena]

It's a status car. I don't find it cool, but among some people it's cool and that's why they buy it. The other day i sat in one of those cars, and quickly disliked the way i was surrounded by tech stuff. But what really kills this car and other EV cars for me are the very low energy density of batteries and the 1 gear transmission. To be fair though the car gives a good amount of effortless-power for in-town accelerations and the exterior is much nicer than my XJ.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by rayg

I'd much rather do the less expensive airfare (in both money and more importantly time) and spend more time actually doing stuff rather than sitting in a car...but that's just me.

No offense meant here, but you don't have an understanding of the term "road trip". The whole point is driving, stopping, and sightseeing; that is spending time doing stuff. For example, on some my road trips (most on a motorcycle) I've stopped at such places as the Geographical Center of the Continental United States (it's in Kansas - tiny little church there), the Geographical Center of the North American Continent (outside of Bismarck, ND), the headwaters of the Mississippi (it's right along Rt. 2 in Bemidji Minnesota), and the headwaters of the great Susquehanna river (it's in New York State and seriously starts out as a drainage ditch that goes under a driveway of a tire shop - there is a sign there marking it - LOL). The point is none of these places I planned to explicitly go to, I just happened upon them. Sure, geeky, but fun at the same time and great memories I've shared with my wife. I rarely ever remember an airplane trip or being in an airport.

No flame, just wanted to make a point.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Soorena

To be fair though the car gives a good amount of effortless-power for in-town accelerations and the exterior is much nicer than my XJ.

Did you have an opportunity to really hammer it? Was it the 90 P model (P being performance)? If not, take the opportunity to try one of those if you get to. The acceleration is pretty substantial. The sensation feels slower because you're not getting that nice ICE growl, but I found myself reaching speeds way quicker than I thought I was, probably due to the quiet nature of the acceleration.

[Kayani_1]

I understand but how do you plan on parking the plan at every key point of interest between California and Houston. Some of those cool and unique good local flavors of food places in small towns and many interesting things that are not commercialized and part of fun attractions.

Originally Posted by rayg

I'd much rather do the less expensive airfare (in both money and more importantly time) and spend more time actually doing stuff rather than sitting in a car...but that's just me.

[F32]

Originally Posted by Kayani_1

Hmmmm......your definition of cool or those of that demographic is much different then mine. Tesla S might be cool among Toyota Prius crowd not among most general people or enthusiast crowd.

However, I doubt anybody drools over it There are more people who drool over cars that make Tesla S look uncool such as Audi R8, M5/M6, CLS/E AMG, RS5/RS7, Viper SRT 8 or GTS, Stingray C7, Porsche 911 GT3, Maserati Granturismo S......etc....etc.

Also, cursing in your post does not make your argument valid. In fact it diminishes it.

Dude. You live in TX. Get lost.

You dont know anyone with a Tesla nor are you surrounded by them. Your problem is thinking Tesla owners cross-shop with those cars. They don't. The Tesla is bought in addition to the Viper, Porsche, Mas, Ferrari, etc. already in the garage.

[F32]

Originally Posted by b0bab0i

From your comments in this thread and the N54 vs 2JZ thread, I now know that you are not a car enthusiast, but just a BMW Fanboy.

LOL. Very true. It's a shame I don't care enough to pay attention to forum IDs. After going back and checking that thread, you're absolutely right.

[F32]

For the record, only poor people take road trips. Take a look at the Forbes link posted above. It's the most common car in the wealthiest areas of the county.

No one who lives where we do has any reason to drive through corn fieilds in Podunk, USA. We don't care that the Tesla can't make it to Wally World in one shot. If we were forced to to drive cross-country for some bizarre reason, there's always the Range Rover or S-Class. Or flying.