01-15-2016, 06:33 PM | #5502 | |
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There is actually a small/modest chance that could happen...but no way rebound lasts that long before vicious bear kicks in imho. AAPL a micron away from breaking down. If a vicious bear rally happens it will start like right now...not in 2 weeks...we shall see. |
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01-15-2016, 07:28 PM | #5503 | ||
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What I do know - China is the mom of the house. When she isn't happy....ain't nobody happy... |
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01-15-2016, 08:45 PM | #5504 |
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yea anything can happen... no crystal ball here. But i see us in a range of Dow 15500-18500 (other indexs are usually inline with the ups/downs too, some correlation)... i suspect we will move towards higher "lows" and lower "highs" until the MM's move us either up or down. My bet is on up since it is an election year. But all markets need cycles and volitility because thats how the MM's make money.
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01-15-2016, 08:50 PM | #5505 | |
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Last edited by fazman; 01-15-2016 at 09:13 PM.. |
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01-15-2016, 09:55 PM | #5506 | |
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Short, Ultra SHort and Ultra Pro short of DIJA30, S&P500, Nasdaq100, rusell2000, etc. I didn't want to name all, so, I assume people will get what I am saying when I said bear etfs.
(sqqq sdow spxu smdd etc.) Quote:
As for that, I would rather look at briefing.com than read this thread.
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01-15-2016, 10:02 PM | #5507 | |
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He is a good summarizer of all major news which already happened and what analyst speculate it will happen. Real analyst and economist needs to somewhat predict what will happen in 2h and 2017 based on data they have and do quantitative analysis and apply that with historical stats and economic theories to back their theories. Only thing is that the mact3333 wants to receive credit for nano-second momentum trade off of news. Nothing wrong with it. I appreciate the updates he brings and people may save some time by not reading briefing.com, barrons, wsj, foxbn, and cnbc as often.
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01-15-2016, 10:12 PM | #5508 |
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This thread exploded when the market finally looks bearish. I have been holding 90% cash since SPY hit 200. Is this just a minor pullback or a beginning of the bears? However, I'm quite interested in jumping on USO for a long term play. I'm holding off till crude hit $20 and I'll start my position.
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01-16-2016, 12:14 PM | #5509 |
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Keep in mind that exports from China to America tanked big time during the last quarter and last year. If exports dropped 30-40% then shares could also drop 30-40%. Keep in mind that oil tanker over 65% and many currencies tanked over 50%
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01-18-2016, 02:30 PM | #5510 | |
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While I enjoy reading the ideas and opinions in this thread, I agree the fearmongering is unnecessary.
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01-18-2016, 06:37 PM | #5511 |
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I don't mind the "fearmongering". It's your money, after all. CNBC/MSNBC/CNN/etc. all use the same rhetoric.
What I do mind is when the reference to DEFCON is used incorrectly. As the threat of nuclear war increases, DEFCON decreases. So DEFCON 5 means the lowest threat level, while DEFCON 1 is the highest. Just a PSA. |
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01-18-2016, 11:04 PM | #5513 |
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shhhhhhhhhhh... you are waking up the huge grizzly bear.
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01-18-2016, 11:06 PM | #5514 |
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01-18-2016, 11:09 PM | #5515 |
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After 2 straight anal tearing on trades, I've decide to be 100x more cautious. Heck, I didn't even lose a dime on year 2008-2012 from by holding biggest bag of urine/poop holding.
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01-19-2016, 09:27 AM | #5516 | |||
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mact3333 - From what I understand you say you have a system that lets you time the market, you don't want to share (which I understand), but if true, why don't you prove to us it works by telling us when you plan to buy and sell and to what extent (before you do it)? This won't give us insight into how you do it or affect your results (group here is very small - even if everyone followed the advise) but would prove one way or the other how effective your system is.
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01-19-2016, 11:36 AM | #5517 |
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Factor in 25% drop in shipping for exports out of China and a drop of 30-50% from export orders to manufacturers in China these last couple of months.
If orders drop by 30-50% that means sales dropped by 30-50% and if sales dropped by 30-50% then that means earnings and profits will drop by that much as well which means stock prices will correct by an equivalent amount as well. |
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01-19-2016, 07:33 PM | #5518 |
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% loss tells the truth. Meaning I didn't do enough research or my prediction was wrong. Time to move on for bigger % gain.
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01-20-2016, 01:47 AM | #5519 |
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I have no idea why people keep saying I have a secret market timing system that says this and that...I just look at the charts and see things and voice an opinion.
I have no need to prove anything...I just give my thoughts on the mkts, thats all. I have given my opinion on here for years and if people see value in that then they should pay attention and if they don't, just ignore. Tonight is the trap I have been waiting for...mkt's tend to break when people are sleeping and they cannot do anything about it...I think tonight is one of those nights...while mom and pop sleep tonight, the mkt gods have the vaseline out and people will be hurting soon. From technical standpoint, the floodgates about to open up soon.. How should mom and pop pick a true bottom(yes we are getting ahead of ourselves), just divide the highs on NFLX, FB, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA by at least 3.... All imho of course. |
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01-20-2016, 01:53 AM | #5520 | |
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01-20-2016, 01:55 AM | #5521 | |
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TSLA? Probably divide by 4. Who still wants an electric car at premium at gas being 1.65/gal?
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01-20-2016, 02:10 AM | #5522 | |
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lol...you need to pay more attention...what you are saying is ludicrous and plain dumb...nanosecond momentum trades off of news?...I don't watch cnbc or read wsj, barrons...seriously...you know how I know you are either dumb or a liar, I haven't made any trades recently other than keep my DTO long position which I have had for a real long time...only trades I made awhile back(i.e.-a month ago at least) to sell everything for myself and my kids 529. You have no credibility, cause you say I trade on nanosecond momentum trades and want credit for that yet I haven't posted a single trade on here in months maybe years ....actually last trade I posted was last August on UCO and DTO... |
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