[Inspired]

Originally Posted by mact3333

DTO now back to 76.00!...top was at 100.00 when I closed out at 98ish(last Wed)...missed the exact top by 15 minutes........actually have been long oil since I closed out short position.

Mkt ready to make a big move soon....build up phase this week.

USO?

[SLOWER]

Anyone watching OCN? I got in just under $6 and bought some more yesterday at $8. Some huge names bought it well above that a month ago.

[mact3333]

out of oil long for breakeven...odds favor oil decline...think oil is going a lot lower myself...oil charts all near 50 dma and rejected today...if it gets above it then maybe we have something but doubt it will happen.

Think we take out 2008 low...yeah this is a BOLD prediction but I am putting it out there....we shall see.

[SLOWER]

Originally Posted by mact3333

out of oil long for breakeven...odds favor oil decline...think oil is going a lot lower myself...oil charts all near 50 dma and rejected today...if it gets above it then maybe we have something but doubt it will happen.

Think we take out 2008 low...yeah this is a BOLD prediction but I am putting it out there....we shall see.

In the context of your trades, are you buying and selling the ticker symbol "OIL" ?

I have never traded Gold, Silver, Oil, etc. so sorry if this is a stupid question.

[mact3333]

You could go long with USO or double long with UCO... Double short would be DTO

Time decay comes into play with leveraged etf's...or you could trade oil futures with no time decay but you are leveraged quite abit

I thought oil would do bear retrace back up to 55-57 but maybe 54 is all we get.

Looking to get short oil again.

[deeLow]

LINE and LNCO down. These 2 seem to follow each other. I'm hoping a dip into the 10's this week so I can scoop some up.

NUGT down nicely, if my damn funds were available right now I'd grab some of that too.

[mact3333]

long oil with UCO at 7.90 for short term trade...oil short with DTO up huge over past few days, think oil bounces now for bit.

[deeLow]

Short hold in FXCM and UCO today

[mact3333]

Oil up 5%....

[Inspired]

Nice little bull flag for USO. It is getting tighter on the daily

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Nice little bull flag for USO. It is getting tighter on the daily

yup, liking the oil chart for right now for the ST...bounce coming/here...beyond that, still bearish longer term.

people keep saying its all just random luck...agree I am lucky, back and forth, long/short...top/bottom to the day...

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by mact3333

yup, liking the oil chart for right now for the ST...bounce coming/here...beyond that, still bearish longer term.

people keep saying its all just random luck...agree I am lucky, back and forth, long/short...top/bottom to the day...

I don't think anyone is accusing you of being "lucky."

It is more around how you word your posts. Your predictions are stated in a way that make it nearly impossible to be wrong.

Your last post is a perfect example: "liking the oil chart for right now for the ST...bounce coming/here...beyond that, still bearish longer term."

Why do you like the oil chart?
How do you quantify "ST?"
What do you consider a "bounce?"
Why are you bearish longer term and how do you quantify "longer term?"

In your words "Bearish longer term," does that mean you expect oil prices to be lower 6months from now? 1 year from now? 10 years from now? etc

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

long oil with UCO at 7.90 for short term trade...oil short with DTO up huge over past few days, think oil bounces now for bit.

Out at 9.40...we might have one more day of upside on oil imho....no need to risk 13% gains in a few trading days.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by mact3333

DTO now back to 76.00!...top was at 100.00 when I closed out at 98ish(last Wed)...missed the exact top by 15 minutes........actually have been long oil since I closed out short position.

Mkt ready to make a big move soon....build up phase this week.

So when did this build up phase happen?

When is the market making this "big move?

Originally Posted by mact3333

out of oil long for breakeven...odds favor oil decline...think oil is going a lot lower myself...oil charts all near 50 dma and rejected today...if it gets above it then maybe we have something but doubt it will happen.

Think we take out 2008 low...yeah this is a BOLD prediction but I am putting it out there....we shall see.

When did this "2008 low" happen?


Do you actually keep track of which of these predictions come true...or do you just like to spout off BS and see what sticks?


Seriously people, if you are in the market, stay indexed against the total market...if you are out of the market, DON't get in now...wait for a market correction and then buy low.


Just don't listen to this fool and his technical analysis "predictions."

[Myrder]

Originally Posted by Dalko43

So when did this build up phase happen?

When is the market making this "big move?



When did this "2008 low" happen?


Do you actually keep track of which of these predictions come true...or do you just like to spout off BS and see what sticks?


Seriously people, if you are in the market, stay indexed against the total market...if you are out of the market, DON't get in now...wait for a market correction and then buy low.


Just don't listen to this fool and his technical analysis "predictions."

He isn't going to respond to you and quite frankly I'm sad I'm even responding to you. We are all adults here. If we want to post outrageous claims and others want to believe it owell. Everyone here knows you have to do your own research when you put your money in the stock market. Clearly you have a lot of research to do as your questions are elementary.

[MrPrena]

Although I use to ROFL at Dalko43's comment, I don't blame them.
Most of traditional ETF index fund investors who were taught at academic institute (incl GSB or MBA) were brain washed by idiot professor who lacks of math and econometric skills.

I also blame those "draw a cock eye lines" technical analysis on a chart thinking that is an actual technical analysis. Real technical requires regression and math based on price, time, volume, and other variables to calculate. Drawing cockeye line MAY bring some basic indications to how it might go, but it will not bring accurate metrics.

There are some stocks which depends more on Fundamentals, but there are also stocks which depends more on Technical side.

Dismissing any indicators or analysis on any sort of investment(s) shows their level of investment skills. Moreover, relying on just TA only to invest/trade will bite someone's @ss someday.

Originally Posted by Dalko43

So when did this build up phase happen?

When is the market making this "big move?



When did this "2008 low" happen?


Do you actually keep track of which of these predictions come true...or do you just like to spout off BS and see what sticks?


Seriously people, if you are in the market, stay indexed against the total market...if you are out of the market, DON't get in now...wait for a market correction and then buy low.


Just don't listen to this fool and his technical analysis "predictions."

Originally Posted by Myrder

He isn't going to respond to you and quite frankly I'm sad I'm even responding to you. We are all adults here. If we want to post outrageous claims and others want to believe it owell. Everyone here knows you have to do your own research when you put your money in the stock market. Clearly you have a lot of research to do as your questions are elementary.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Although I use to ROFL at Dalko43's comment, I don't blame them.
Most of traditional ETF index fund investors who were taught at academic institute (incl GSB or MBA) were brain washed by idiot professor who lacks of math and econometric skills.

I also blame those "draw a cock eye lines" technical analysis on a chart thinking that is an actual technical analysis. Real technical requires regression and math based on price, time, volume, and other variables to calculate. Drawing cockeye line MAY bring some basic indications to how it might go, but it will not bring accurate metrics.

There are some stocks which depends more on Fundamentals, but there are also stocks which depends more on Technical side.

Dismissing any indicators or analysis on any sort of investment(s) shows their level of investment skills. Moreover, relying on just TA only to invest/trade will bite someone's @ss someday.

TA and FA both have their place in investing. The fact that so many people use TA means that there are supports, resistance, etc etc. The fact that so many people use FA means it is also important to have strong balance sheets, ratios, etc etc.

I think part of it is also that Mact is just completely full of sh!t. I have called him out on it, and his sycophants just pile in. A few people have finally also spoken up about this. Notice how he completely ignored the below post? Check a few posts ago.

Originally Posted by RandomHero

I don't think anyone is accusing you of being "lucky."

It is more around how you word your posts. Your predictions are stated in a way that make it nearly impossible to be wrong.

Your last post is a perfect example: "liking the oil chart for right now for the ST...bounce coming/here...beyond that, still bearish longer term."

Why do you like the oil chart?
How do you quantify "ST?"
What do you consider a "bounce?"
Why are you bearish longer term and how do you quantify "longer term?"

In your words "Bearish longer term," does that mean you expect oil prices to be lower 6months from now? 1 year from now? 10 years from now? etc

He does not use TA. In fact, I think he makes most of it up and the only thing he times are his posts... I honestly believe he probably doesn't even put his own money where his mouth is (and a $1000 scottrade acct doesn't count).

Prena, you have said in the past that you used to be in the industry. If so, you know that the loudest people are usually the ones who are BSing. The only people who try to call tops and bottoms are the ones who are trying to prove something or they are on tv solely providing entertainment.



For what it's worth, I think 2015 will be the year of active managers. The ones who can pivot and take advantage of the volatility will beat the index. Last year was perfect for indexing/passive investing because of the ridiculously low amounts of volatility for so long. TA will be helpful to time entry and exit points and when to scale in positions.

[RandomHero]

There’s no need to insult the guy and I won’t lose any sleep over whether or not he adopts my proposed prediction format. However, it would certainly allow us to quantify and better understand whether or not these predictions were the result of true Tactical Analysis or the result of other factors (overall market performance, volatility, etc)

To keep it very simple, this prediction format would be more than sufficient:

Post 1: Today I purchased a long position in XYZ Holdings at 10:01am central for $x.xx/share.
Post 2: Today I sold my position in XYZ holdings at 12:15pm central for $x.xx/share

That allows us to quantify the return and compare the level of risk with the performance of the underlying benchmark over that time period.

[Dalko43]

Originally Posted by Myrder

He isn't going to respond to you and quite frankly I'm sad I'm even responding to you. We are all adults here. If we want to post outrageous claims and others want to believe it owell. Everyone here knows you have to do your own research when you put your money in the stock market. Clearly you have a lot of research to do as your questions are elementary.

If everyone on here knows they have to do their own research, then why do they look for investing feedback on this thread?

And if my questions are so elementary, can you please provide me with the obvious answers.

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Although I use to ROFL at Dalko43's comment, I don't blame them.
Most of traditional ETF index fund investors who were taught at academic institute (incl GSB or MBA) were brain washed by idiot professor who lacks of math and econometric skills.

Who are these idiot professors that you refer to? Are Fama and French the "idiot professors" that you refer to? Do you even know who Fama and French are? The Fama-French model and Fama's efficient market hypothesis is still used to this day by many in the investment world as the basis for portfolio theory.

Originally Posted by MrPrena

There are some stocks which depends more on Fundamentals, but there are also stocks which depends more on Technical side.

Dismissing any indicators or analysis on any sort of investment(s) shows their level of investment skills. Moreover, relying on just TA only to invest/trade will bite someone's @ss someday.

Technical analysis may have its place for trying to understand past trends in fund/portfolio performance, but I have yet to see anyone in the academic or financial world make a strong case for how technical analysis can be used to consistently pick winning stocks/funds in advance.

Quite to the contrary, I have seen multitudes of papers written about how the average fund or portfolio which tries to outperform their corresponding market index through various means (market-timing, quantitative analysis, security selection, manager-selection) ultimately underperforms their market index.

If anyone doesn't understand what I am talking about, I would encourage you to read the SPIVA (S&P Index vs Active) reports which cover this exact topic:

http://www.spindices.com/documents/s...-year-2014.pdf


This study is just the tip of the iceberg. MrPrena , while your response was witty and well articulated, I am very eager to see you provide some studies or statistical data which actually proves that Technical analysis can be used to obtain consistent and substantial outperformance over the average market returns.

[Patrick303]

This thread is for those of use who wish to discuss individual stocks and share our insights. It is NOT a thread to argue if TA can beat the market index. So GTFO and start your own thread!

[schoy]

Originally Posted by RandomHero

There’s no need to insult the guy and I won’t lose any sleep over whether or not he adopts my proposed prediction format. However, it would certainly allow us to quantify and better understand whether or not these predictions were the result of true Tactical Analysis or the result of other factors (overall market performance, volatility, etc)

To keep it very simple, this prediction format would be more than sufficient:

Post 1: Today I purchased a long position in XYZ Holdings at 10:01am central for $x.xx/share because _________.
Post 2: Today I sold my position in XYZ holdings at 12:15pm central for $x.xx/share because __________.

That allows us to quantify the return and compare the level of risk with the performance of the underlying benchmark over that time period.

For those of us who are trying to learn TA, it'd be nice to add the underlined rationale above.

[MrPrena]

First of all, topic of this thread is

Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis


Therefore I will talk about TA here. If you don't like it, please make a new thread about sissy mutual fund or 12B-1 thread.

Dalko, first of all, I hear from ETF/Mutual fund [fanturds]:
"historical studies"
"My bus school professor (who never even took higher math than Calculus 1) i use to have tickle time with in the office......"
"I asked my Stanturd GSB professor about application of Linear Algebra for CPI, and he was telling me to take higschool algebra bro!"
"Mutual fund companies and ETF companies says...."


Historical data?
Unless it is extremely fast "trade", who does "investment" with purely based on TA??? Therefore, you would not find a studies on PURELY based on TA argument, and it is dumb to even bring out the argument on "invest on purely on TA"

It is like "YO BRO I bought this car, because it has cool rims man!"
Do you buy a car ONLY based on how pretty wheels?


I really want to talk about FA too, but don't get me started (TA thread).

Originally Posted by MrPrena

............then I will do the forward 12mo fundemental. Then I will do the technical analysis to find out entry/exit price...........

Originally Posted by MrPrena

.................

It is a great way to find out when I can find the good entry and exit point/price, relative to time, volume, and dv. However, there are so many "eyeball" "draw a cockeye line" Technical Analysis. People who actually does the real TA, calculate the metrics of it..............

Originally Posted by Dalko43

If everyone on here knows they have to do their own research, then why do they look for investing feedback on this thread?

And if my questions are so elementary, can you please provide me with the obvious answers.



Who are these idiot professors that you refer to? Are Fama and French the "idiot professors" that you refer to? Do you even know who Fama and French are? The Fama-French model and Fama's efficient market hypothesis is still used to this day by many in the investment world as the basis for portfolio theory.




Technical analysis may have its place for trying to understand past trends in fund/portfolio performance, but I have yet to see anyone in the academic or financial world make a strong case for how technical analysis can be used to consistently pick winning stocks/funds in advance.

Quite to the contrary, I have seen multitudes of papers written about how the average fund or portfolio which tries to outperform their corresponding market index through various means (market-timing, quantitative analysis, security selection, manager-selection) ultimately underperforms their market index.

If anyone doesn't understand what I am talking about, I would encourage you to read the SPIVA (S&P Index vs Active) reports which cover this exact topic:

http://www.spindices.com/documents/s...-year-2014.pdf


This study is just the tip of the iceberg. MrPrena , while your response was witty and well articulated, I am very eager to see you provide some studies or statistical data which actually proves that Technical analysis can be used to obtain consistent and substantial outperformance over the average market returns.