[Lady Jane]

Doak VZ-4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doak_VZ-4

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

Yes, First Officer. I'm not sure how long it takes to move to the left seat. I guess it depends on evaluations and opportunities. AC is having many senior pilots retiring now and are hiring a lot of new pilots.

My son has been with United for 4 years and he's eligible to upgrade to captain, if he so desires. He's been a captain in the regionals, so knows the ropes. At the moment, he is in no rush to upgrade, preferring to wait and see how stable the economy is. Much of the decision making is influenced by seniority and domiciles. If the economy tanks again, a pilot could find him or herself put on reserve (sit and wait to be called) which really sucks.

[Alfisti]

Has he considered Qantas? They pay very well and tend to be rock solid employers.

[flybigjet]

Originally Posted by 3.0L

My son has been with United for 4 years and he's eligible to upgrade to captain, if he so desires. He's been a captain in the regionals, so knows the ropes. At the moment, he is in no rush to upgrade, preferring to wait and see how stable the economy is. Much of the decision making is influenced by seniority and domiciles. If the economy tanks again, a pilot could find him or herself put on reserve (sit and wait to be called) which really sucks.

My record so far is having a First Officer get off of Probation (one year with the Company) on Day One of a four-day trip and getting a Captain's Bid on Day Four of a four-day trip.

That's sort of amazing-- it took me over 20 years to upgrade from First Officer to Captain.

R.

[ASAP]

As someone who is perhaps a bit uneducated on the subject or rather a little too educated (i have a light sport license)....

can someone explain to me why we consistently have a commercial pilot shortage?

If I go back 10-15 years, I was consistently drilled with the fact that pilots are a dying breed, demand is massively going down, there are far too many pilots and the Military won't accept anyone into flight training school unless they are the 1% of the 1% with regards to assessments. Then I also heard regionals and all these airlines pay shit compared to other jobs.

So... wtf happened in 10 years? Now we have a shortage over and over, crews are missing, pilots are massively in demand and pilot unions can now have the upper hand.

Is this bad planning or idiotic media hysteria?

[Alfisti]

Flying EXPLODED in the 10 years pre-covid. The biggest shortage is long haul, long tenure captains. The Chinese and Arab airlines expanded at a ridiculous clip the last 15 years.

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by ASAP

As someone who is perhaps a bit uneducated on the subject or rather a little too educated (i have a light sport license)....

can someone explain to me why we consistently have a commercial pilot shortage?

If I go back 10-15 years, I was consistently drilled with the fact that pilots are a dying breed, demand is massively going down, there are far too many pilots and the Military won't accept anyone into flight training school unless they are the 1% of the 1% with regards to assessments. Then I also heard regionals and all these airlines pay shit compared to other jobs.

So... wtf happened in 10 years? Now we have a shortage over and over, crews are missing, pilots are massively in demand and pilot unions can now have the upper hand.

Is this bad planning or idiotic media hysteria?

I think there are a lot of reasons for the so-called pilot shortage. If one decides to go the civilian route, it is very expensive to climb the ladder of pilot ratings, not to mention the required college education. After that, the new-hire into the regional airlines usually gets the worst domiciles and trip schedules, not mention the starting pay has been poor. Of course, those conditions don't last forever. Also, it takes quite a long time to build the required hours to get hired.

As to current pilot starts, take a gander at Radar24 and click on the small aircraft symbols near small airports. If you see airplanes such as the C-150, C-152, C-172 and Piper PA-28's doing endless patterns around the airport traffic area and seemingly aimless flying just a few miles away, it is likely a student pilot. I see lots of that type activity around our regional airport. Seems like good news to me.

[Fly320s]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Has he considered Qantas? They pay very well and tend to be rock solid employers.

Getting hired at Qantas is incredibly difficult for a non-Aussie.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by Fly320s

Getting hired at Qantas is incredibly difficult for a non-Aussie.

I realise the lad in question would not be eligible but let's say you have tenure etc, they don't hire into the markets they fly into? They have several aircraft a day landing in the USA.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Flying EXPLODED in the 10 years pre-covid. The biggest shortage is long haul, long tenure captains. The Chinese and Arab airlines expanded at a ridiculous clip the last 15 years.

It all sounds like poor planning and very poor market predictions to me.

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by flybigjet

My record so far is having a First Officer get off of Probation (one year with the Company) on Day One of a four-day trip and getting a Captain's Bid on Day Four of a four-day trip.

That's sort of amazing-- it took me over 20 years to upgrade from First Officer to Captain.

R.

My son did 15 years on the regionals before getting hired by United, which I thought was the norm.

It was a tough ride in the regionals with crappy crash pads, plus more than one regional airline went belly up - flying one day, looking for a job the next.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by ASAP

It all sounds like poor planning and very poor market predictions to me.

Maybe it is but you need to remember the long haul market went away from stupid big planes to smaller ones that could do point to point. So exponentially more long haul.

Pre-Covid, there were some 17 planes going in each direction (so 34) from Australia to the USA/Canada and vice versa. That's a staggering number.

[flybigjet]

This really has a lot of complex issues that you could write a doctoral dissertation on.

A few overall things to consider:

1. Crew sizes (regardless) of size of jet are more or less a constant. The days of flight engineers is pretty much in the past except for the occasional freight hauler. TIME is what drives crew size. International long haul is usually 3 or 4 pilots, depending on duty day (i.e how far are you going today?). San Fran to Tokyo? Three pilots. Tokyo to Bangkok? Two pilots. San Fran to Singapore? Four pilots.

2. Domestic crew sizes are two pilots. Very little augmentation on the narrow body fleets, except for a few oddballs (like the Guam Island-Hopper). That's why you can have a crew "time-out" on your flight-- they might have flown two or three times already today, and the FAA has pretty absolute duty day limits.

3. Airlines are all in increasing in size and buying a ton of aircraft (go look at the order books for Boeing and Airbus). Some of those tails are for replacements (757 retirements v. 331Neo for example), but a lot of them are for new growth. You need pilots to fly them.

4. As a general rule in the Majors, it's "get hired at the very bottom (regardless of your experience), and slowly move up in seat, fleet and/or domicile". Basically, even if you're the lead in the Thunderbirds, you're going to start at the bottom. For Part 121 (passenger) operations, you can't fly after your 65th birthday-- which means if you get hired by a Major in your 20's, you'll have a much longer period of higher earnings than if you get hired in your 40's-- the time doesn't carry over from previous airlines.

5. EVERYTHING is done by seniority. EVERYTHING. You can be in a situation where you're a senior First Officer where you get weekends, holidays, birthdays, anniversaries off with first choice of prime vacation, OR you can be a super-junior Captain "on Reserve" (think of it like sitting Alert waiting for the phone to ring). You'll fly or be on Call (sometimes at home, sometimes at the airport) nights, weekends, holidays, etc. And vacation? You'd better enjoy February and October. Additionally, some guys love the wide body/long haul flying, others hate it (case in point-- I can hold 777 Captain as a junior Reserve, but I'd stab myself through the eyes with a fork-- I love being a fairly senior narrow body 737 Captain. I make a bit less money, but can have control over holidays, weekends, not flying all-nighters, etc)

6. Military pilots are drying up for a few reasons: There are a LOT fewer cockpits/aircraft in the military nowadays, so there are a lot fewer active-duty pilots. The pilot-training commitment is currently (I think?) 10 years AFTER you graduate from pilot training-- which means you're stuck for 11 years. The kicker is every single time you do something (change bases, planes, go to school, upgrade), you incur additional commitment-- sometimes they run concurrently, sometimes you get caught you have no choice but to extend past your 11 years-- it can get complicated and you can get stuck for 15 or more years-- at which point, you might as well stay to 20 and get the retirement.

7. Up until recently, the regionals paid NOTHING because they knew you were really getting paid in flight time. Get enough hours (Pilot in Command time and jet time, especially), and you earn your interview with the Majors-- which meant when the economy was booming, who wanted to live on food stamps, live in a crash pad, and fly for a shite company driving some suck RJ or prop job for 5-10-15 years when you could get six figures for breathing in any other industry almost right out of school? This is why the Regional pay has skyrocketed-- Frontier's offering $50,000 signing bonuses as of next month, and some of the Regional Captains are making more than I do as a major narrowbody Captain just for retention. The model there is broken and it'll be interesting to see what happens.

8. Hiring criteria at the Majors is being DRASTICALLY lowered. ~2300 hours total time. NO Pilot in Command requirement. NO jet requirement. No College degree requirement. Remember to even get a job as a copilot in commercial aviation, you need 1,500 hours and an Airline Transport Pilot certificate from the FAA. This is because the demand is far exceeding the supply. It's sort of insane.

9. This couples with a lot of FAA rules. In addition to not flying over age 65, you can't fly more than 100 hours a month or 1000 a year-- no matter what the airline would like you to do (and most buffer those limits down by 50 hours). And if you're senior, you can minimize the trips you *have* to fly, or specify that you only want to fly the most efficient (for you), etc. When you're senior, you can play the "may pay for min work" game-- which means the airline needs more pilots.

All in all, there are a lot of reasons. Is there a pilot shortage? Well, yes. What's the fix? I don't know-- that's why airlines are trying to be creative. A lot of them are also starting up their own aviation academy's-- you go in, get trained, go directly to the Regionals for a couple years, then end up at a Major. I just flew with an FO who turned 26 on his first trip-- wow! He's going to have one hell of a career...... IF things don't collapse.

Remember that in the airlines, furloughs are a thing (think unemployment, but with a more polite name). First hired, last fired is a thing. You could be hired next week, make it through training, get checked out in the jet.... and something like Covid or 9-11 happens, and you're on the street with tens of thousands of other pilots.

Best quote I've ever heard? "It's a GREAT job, but a TERRIBLE career!"

There's a lot of truth to that.

R.

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by flybigjet

This really has a lot of complex issues that you could write a doctoral dissertation on.

A few overall things to consider:

1. Crew sizes (regardless) of size of jet are more or less a constant. The days of flight engineers is pretty much in the past except for the occasional freight hauler. TIME is what drives crew size. International long haul is usually 3 or 4 pilots, depending on duty day (i.e how far are you going today?). San Fran to Tokyo? Three pilots. Tokyo to Bangkok? Two pilots. San Fran to Singapore? Four pilots.

2. Domestic crew sizes are two pilots. Very little augmentation on the narrow body fleets, except for a few oddballs (like the Guam Island-Hopper). That's why you can have a crew "time-out" on your flight-- they might have flown two or three times already today, and the FAA has pretty absolute duty day limits.

3. Airlines are all in increasing in size and buying a ton of aircraft (go look at the order books for Boeing and Airbus). Some of those tails are for replacements (757 retirements v. 331Neo for example), but a lot of them are for new growth. You need pilots to fly them.

4. As a general rule in the Majors, it's "get hired at the very bottom (regardless of your experience), and slowly move up in seat, fleet and/or domicile". Basically, even if you're the lead in the Thunderbirds, you're going to start at the bottom. For Part 121 (passenger) operations, you can't fly after your 65th birthday-- which means if you get hired by a Major in your 20's, you'll have a much longer period of higher earnings than if you get hired in your 40's-- the time doesn't carry over from previous airlines.

5. EVERYTHING is done by seniority. EVERYTHING. You can be in a situation where you're a senior First Officer where you get weekends, holidays, birthdays, anniversaries off with first choice of prime vacation, OR you can be a super-junior Captain "on Reserve" (think of it like sitting Alert waiting for the phone to ring). You'll fly or be on Call (sometimes at home, sometimes at the airport) nights, weekends, holidays, etc. And vacation? You'd better enjoy February and October. Additionally, some guys love the wide body/long haul flying, others hate it (case in point-- I can hold 777 Captain as a junior Reserve, but I'd stab myself through the eyes with a fork-- I love being a fairly senior narrow body 737 Captain. I make a bit less money, but can have control over holidays, weekends, not flying all-nighters, etc)

6. Military pilots are drying up for a few reasons: There are a LOT fewer cockpits/aircraft in the military nowadays, so there are a lot fewer active-duty pilots. The pilot-training commitment is currently (I think?) 10 years AFTER you graduate from pilot training-- which means you're stuck for 11 years. The kicker is every single time you do something (change bases, planes, go to school, upgrade), you incur additional commitment-- sometimes they run concurrently, sometimes you get caught you have no choice but to extend past your 11 years-- it can get complicated and you can get stuck for 15 or more years-- at which point, you might as well stay to 20 and get the retirement.

7. Up until recently, the regionals paid NOTHING because they knew you were really getting paid in flight time. Get enough hours (Pilot in Command time and jet time, especially), and you earn your interview with the Majors-- which meant when the economy was booming, who wanted to live on food stamps, live in a crash pad, and fly for a shite company driving some suck RJ or prop job for 5-10-15 years when you could get six figures for breathing in any other industry almost right out of school? This is why the Regional pay has skyrocketed-- Frontier's offering $50,000 signing bonuses as of next month, and some of the Regional Captains are making more than I do as a major narrowbody Captain just for retention. The model there is broken and it'll be interesting to see what happens.

8. Hiring criteria at the Majors is being DRASTICALLY lowered. ~2300 hours total time. NO Pilot in Command requirement. NO jet requirement. No College degree requirement. Remember to even get a job as a copilot in commercial aviation, you need 1,500 hours and an Airline Transport Pilot certificate from the FAA. This is because the demand is far exceeding the supply. It's sort of insane.

9. This couples with a lot of FAA rules. In addition to not flying over age 65, you can't fly more than 100 hours a month or 1000 a year-- no matter what the airline would like you to do (and most buffer those limits down by 50 hours). And if you're senior, you can minimize the trips you *have* to fly, or specify that you only want to fly the most efficient (for you), etc. When you're senior, you can play the "may pay for min work" game-- which means the airline needs more pilots.

All in all, there are a lot of reasons. Is there a pilot shortage? Well, yes. What's the fix? I don't know-- that's why airlines are trying to be creative. A lot of them are also starting up their own aviation academy's-- you go in, get trained, go directly to the Regionals for a couple years, then end up at a Major. I just flew with an FO who turned 26 on his first trip-- wow! He's going to have one hell of a career...... IF things don't collapse.

Remember that in the airlines, furloughs are a thing (think unemployment, but with a more polite name). First hired, last fired is a thing. You could be hired next week, make it through training, get checked out in the jet.... and something like Covid or 9-11 happens, and you're on the street with tens of thousands of other pilots.

Best quote I've ever heard? "It's a GREAT job, but a TERRIBLE career!"

There's a lot of truth to that.

R.

Thanks for the great write-up ^^^.

About a year ago my son jump seated on an ERJ-175, going to LAX. The FO was a new hire and on his IOE. It was his leg. He managed to get behind
the 8-ball while descending into LAX and damned near put them in the dirt. He let the rate of descent get out of hand and the Captain had to intervene
and go TOGO. FO apologized, but WTF.

[flybigjet]

Originally Posted by 3.0L

Thanks for the great write-up ^^^.

About a year ago my son jump seated on an ERJ-175, going to LAX. The FO was a new hire and on his IOE. It was his leg. He managed to get behind
the 8-ball while descending into LAX and damned near put them in the dirt. He let the rate of descent get out of hand and the Captain had to intervene
and go TOGO. FO apologized, but WTF.

Yup, the dreaded RNAV Arrival into LAX-- it works great with the speed and altitude constraints that are published. The fun begins when ATC starts commanding slowdowns from 280 to 250 or 210-- because the profile is so tight, it's a real bugger to figure out how to dump a bucket of 30-70 knots of energy-- it can be a challenge-- fun if you're an old guy, a little terrifying if you're a noob.

In your example, I'd fault the Line Check Captain. Part of a left-seater's job is mentorship-- ESPECIALLY as a Check Airman. If you see the arrival going south, it's incumbent to you to (nicely) use it as a teaching moment and suggest ways/tips/techniques to fix the problem. If that doesn't work, then you (slightly less nicely) *command* how to fix the problem. And if that doesn't work? You take the jet and discuss it after you're on the ground.

In addition to allowing the FO to put you in an unsafe position, a Go-Around costs time and money-- the peeps in the back are paying you to get them there safely and on-time. A Go-Around is going to eat 80-250 gallons of fuel (aircraft dependent) and kill 15-20 minutes of time that could be spent getting the passengers to the Gate. A good LCA doesn't let it get that far.

Just my 0.02.

R.

[ASAP]

Thank you for that write up and thanks for doing your job... I know how tough it can be. I feel even worse for the ATC controllers... there are so many parts to this overall issue.

Last question in jest or jets- 737 or A320?

I played with MS Flight Sim and REALLY like the A320 FMC and how a lot of the flight is automated with safeties built in (plus it's a newer platform and have always fount it more comfortable as a passenger) but perhaps there are things I don't know.

[ezaircon4jc]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Thank you for that write up and thanks for doing your job... I know how tough it can be. I feel even worse for the ATC controllers... there are so many parts to this overall issue...

I was fired (forced retired @56) at just the right time. I got to work the glory says of ATC! We did things that would never fly (no pun intended) today. Then again, we had to as we were expected to put 10 pounds of airplanes into 5 pounds of airport. LAX's arrival rate was 68, +/- 10% when the weather was IFR and the rate was 85+ when VFR. We routinely hit the upper 70's/ low 80's with bad weather and over 100 when good. Now, the rate is something like 63 no matter the weather. Type A personality was pretty much a requirement (see the movie Pushing Tin). None of the things we did would work without the pilot's trust & cooperation. We used to have pilot briefings where we discussed what we expected of them and what they could expect from us. Things changed drastically after the briefings stopped. Hearing about the lack of skill and total reliance on automation, instead of relying on the Mk1 Mod1 brain, in today's control rooms has me refusing to fly.

The down side is more than a few of us don't make it long in retirement. I've had 4 ex coworkers (that I know about) die from heart attacks, and I shouldn't have survived mine. Divorce is also rampant. It was a great career and I am still looking for the adrenalin rush of working a busy session.

[Jbrown7403]

Some random shots from Pinal Airpark north of Tucson, Arizona

[flybigjet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Last question in jest or jets- 737 or A320?

Flown 'em both, like 'em both.

Put it this way: I drive a 737, and every car I've owned has had a MT with the fewest bells and whistles I could get-- in other words, minimal automation.

My best friend? Is a left-seater on the 320 and he drives (and raves and RAVES about) a Tesla.

Neither of us would trade seats.

That pretty much sums it up. The 737 is one of the last aircraft that you really can "fly"-- the automation is... ok, fairly basic, and will (mostly) do what you want it to do, but you have to keep an eye on it. But at the end of the day, you're working pretty hard to get the jet to do what you want-- at least compared to the newer jets (i.e. pretty much anything else out there with wings). Yes, that Max9 that you're driving might have rolled off the assembly line a month ago, but at its heart, it's still the flower of mid-1960's technology. Basically? It's the golden retriever of the airline world-- it's got a good heart, but is dumb as a post.

The Bus? Great airplane-- and specifically designed for "Third-World" markets in that it does a pretty good job taking the pilot out of the equation-- the joke's always been that you're a "non-voting member of the board". That's not a bad thing. It's a LOT more comfortable from a pilot (and passenger) perspective but I always found it to feel a little... disconnected. Sort of like you're playing a video game instead of pushing a jet through the sky.

Our Senior Manager of Training had a pretty good quote at the last Standards Meeting-- "Do you want to *fly* the jet, or do you want to go for an airplane ride?"

I thought he had a good point. Guys love or hate either. There are pro's and con's to each. I'll easily admit that I work FAR harder moving the jet than my Bus Bud, but I also like the fact that if things go to hell, I can kill *ALL* of the magic and hand fly the jet with no computers in the way. To me, there's value in that. I don't want a computer to say "No, I don't think you should do that", even if I'm seconds from putting it in the dirt and trying to pull off a "Hail Mary".

R.

[Alfisti]

I could honestly talk to you all day about this stuff.

You touch on the "third world" concerns, I know it's a tough place to fly and no one should be judging too early but it looks like that ATR that went down in Tibet was a simple stall. How does that happen, even with less trained pilots? Surely she's SCREAMING at the captain with warning bells no?

EDIT: Qantas just had an engine let go mid flight on a 737, landed safely.

[Fly320s]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

I realise the lad in question would not be eligible but let's say you have tenure etc, they don't hire into the markets they fly into? They have several aircraft a day landing in the USA.

No, they don't hire from their markets. They hire within Australia. I'm sure there are a few non-Aussies working there, but those are the exceptions. Their hiring practices may have changed since I last looked, since most airlines are hiring pilots right now, but they used to be very strict or picky about hiring only Australians.

Qantas is a small airline. They have only 124 total aircraft. My little US airline has 287 aircraft of which 130 are A320s. United, American, Delta, and Southwest are at least 3 times our size.

You mentioned tenure. We call it seniority, but it is basically the same. That seniority does not transfer to other airlines if we change jobs. We always start with new seniority. I've been at my airline for 21 years. If I leave here to go fly for United, I'll start off at the bottom of their seniority list. I'll be junior to the 25 year old who was hired one day ahead of me.

[Alfisti]

Yeah they are small, bit weird too in terms of long haul volume. Isn't it weird that seniority doesn't translate airline to airline, especially if it's on the same bird?