[bagekko]

Interesting, then getting the Thackler Pass mine online by 2026 to meet GM's demand of lithium for EVs is a bigger stretch than I thought? Considering it was green lighted for development in 2021 and still not fully fully approved. Plus the Chinese company in charge of the mine will probably be secretly smuggling all the lithium out of the country and telling GM "oh theres less here than we thought".

One thing most don't know is the background to most EV resource partners are with Chinese companies, they have been getting the inside line to the resources for over a decade. It's only mentioned in less than 10% of the articles I read on these partnership announcements.

The balloons are prolly not to spy us but to scan for natural resources they can mine LOL.

5 years from now, unless some magic tech changes the situation and the big battery EV push continues, its going to be an ugly global situation for natural resources.

Originally Posted by dradernh

Useful data point: in the Western world, it takes 15-20 years for a new mine to come on-line. Note that more mines in Western countries will be required if the goal of moving all of us to EVs is to be met. This is regardless of the transition end-dates being tossed-about today (e.g., 2030, 2035, 2050, etc.).

[CTinline-six]

My guess is there will be a one-liner buried somewhere deep in the media stories in 2034 extending the deadline. It's all political bullshit that sounds good to them at the time. Implementing it is completely different.

I work at a university that claims to be "green" and do whatever possible to keep that image. Their engineers looked at converting 50 facilities vehicles to EV. In theory it is the ideal use case, as those vehicles usually stay only on or around campus, drive a small amount of daily miles, and are parked in the same location overnight. The university produces most of it's own power, but probably requires 15-20% from the local electric company. Just for those 50 vehicles, they would have to double the power input from the electric company, including updating the existing infrastructure (lines, etc) from that company. That is just one public university in a small state in New England.

EVs have their place, but we are a long way off from being able to realistically replace ICE completely, if it is even possible. There is no one size fits all solution. I have a few friends with EVs, and they have noticed issues like significant range limitations during winter temperatures. My prediction is we will see a lot more integration of hybrids and EVs into our infrastructure over the next 10 years, but complete replacement is a pie in the sky mentality.

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by dradernh

Useful data point: in the Western world, it takes 15-20 years for a new mine to come on-line. Note that more mines in Western countries will be required if the goal of moving all of us to EVs is to be met. This is regardless of the transition end-dates being tossed-about today (e.g., 2030, 2035, 2050, etc.).


CARB has been living in a dream world since at least the 1980s, when it declared that 10% of new vehicles sold in California would be emissions-free by the year 2000.

That fail was, hilariously, explained-away by the ignorant and the purposefully uninformed as GM taking its EV1 off the market so as to prevent the transition to non-fossil fuel vehicles. Mind you, the EV1 was the only EV available at the time, it was not for sale, quoted lessors of the day appeared to be exclusively virtue-signaling Hollywood types, and total production of the EV1 came in at barely over 1,100 units before GM gave up and threw in the towel.

Even for the time, such a spectacular fail was well into you-cain't-hardly-make-this-chit-upp territory. Of course, one had to be paying attention at the time to get it.

The bottom line is unchanged for something as significant as this transition is: double the time estimates published by qualified sources. Then triple them. Do the same for the costs. At that point, you will be well within a realistic ballpark of what's going to happen. Yes, there are always exceptions, and for something this incredibly huge, those are likely to take place on the downside (i.e., later and more costly than estimated, all along the way). For all of us, let's hope we end up doing at least better than that.

I had never considered or realized the start up time required for a new mine, and I understand that to meet the demand for rare earth minerals some 400 new mines will be required. I suspect that number of mines will stretch available miners and resources so will impact the timeline to get a mine started. There will also be a requirement for "green electricity". There is no way in hell that wind farms and solar can meet the demand, so that means nuclear and gas fired, which might be a problem because the majority of environmentalists don't think they are green so there will be the inevitable delays while they fight about that. It also takes between 5-10 years to build a nuclear plant, that's after all of the environmental impact studies, design and government red tape. Then there is the construction of the infrastructure and charging stations to charge 10's of million electric cars.

All this to say that there is now way in hell that the timeline government has imposed on the industry and the public can be met because the government and common sense dictate it will take much much longer.

[Alfisti]

Cannot believe I cannot find the PHEV situation anywhere online. It's insane, are they banned or not?

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Cannot believe I cannot find the PHEV situation anywhere online. It's insane, are they banned or not?

I suspect the government will be forced to take a step back from the all out ban, and I suspect (pray really) the current government will be long gone by then and a government with some common sense will come to power and soften the current direction.

I did find this, not sure if it helps with your question though.
https://electrek.co/2022/04/01/canad...-ban-gas-cars/

[Alfisti]

I know the situation here, PHEV's are allowed in which is what I predicted would need to happen and what Toyoda (not a typo) was banking on.

The EU is vital though, it is a HUGE market, if they are allowing PHEV's in the tent then the likes of Toyota and Honda may continue with a big PHEV push, if not, they too may bail. It's very canary in the coal mine stuff.

[Ste42]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Cannot believe I cannot find the PHEV situation anywhere online. It's insane, are they banned or not?

I found it easily enough. the quote is:
"From 2035, all new cars that come on the market cannot emit any CO2"
So PHEVS are banned as well.

It will probably be put back though. Most EU rulings are.

[RickFLM4]

What about SUVs, trucks, buses, airplanes, tractors, heavy construction equipment, etc.?

[Ste42]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

What about SUVs, trucks, buses, airplanes, tractors, heavy construction equipment, etc.?

There will be separate rulings for those. SUVs are cars and so will also be banned. Truck are an interesting one - we don't have many of those (non-commercial) like you do in the USA. I imagine if they are not classed as commercial then they will be banned. Commercial trucks won't be far behind though. Aeroplanes (sorry ) are probably many decades away.