[FizzyElf]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Volvo goes all-in for 2030 (and GM tries to sidle up)

Maybe more important: online sales.

The Care by Volvo concept will now be expanded to include outright sales, with a package for maintenance, roadside assistance as well as insurance. By 2025, about half of all purchases are expected to be made online, said Lex Kerssemakers, Volvo’s head of commercial operations. That’s up from as much as 15% currently in the markets where Volvo offers its subscription service.

They're going full copy of Tesla ... but given Volvo is now Chinese maybe that makes sense ...

Unlimited Chinese labor to mine all that lithium and cobalt!

[F32Fleet]

Originally Posted by FizzyElf

Unlimited Chinese labor to mine all that lithium and cobalt!

LOL.. It thought is was Chileans in Chile.

[GrussGott]

As for The Bigs comin to get Tesla ... uhhh I don't so, at least not with their first try, and for sure not for road trips ("not quite ready yet"):

mach-e seems good though!

[GrussGott]

Great chart showing how fast Tesla's market share of ALL VEHICLE SALES (not just EVs) is growing despite the but-it's-just-small-percentage! narrative, ordered as of Q4 2020 (if ordered as avg over 3 years then Tesla is #6):



Key point: Even averaging over the last *3 years* Tesla outsells Acura, Cadillac, Infiniti, Lincoln, Volvo, Land Rover, Porsche, Jaguar, Genesis, Alpha Romeo and does it with fewer models than all but 2 of them.

If Tesla does run out of runway, assuming they release 2-3 new models, they'll do it when they're outselling almost every competitor in the luxury segment, EV or not. Auto sales alone don't come near to justifying their valuation (if valued only by current sales), but the notion Tesla isn't a major auto retailer is laughable ...

With only 4 models, Tesla sells 80% of every EV, and is #4 in overall vehicle sales in the luxury segment - not a bad spot for ANY auto mfr.

[KRS_SN]

Legacy manufacturers had a head start hence they sell more cars overall. Tesla had a head start in selling EV'S hence sell more EV'S as theyare now thelegacyEV manufacturer. The reasoning is coming around

[KRS_SN]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/te...184534452.html

[GrussGott]

This seems needlessly aggressive

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

Legacy manufacturers had a head start hence they sell more cars overall. Tesla had a head start in selling EV'S hence sell more EV'S as theyare now thelegacyEV manufacturer. The reasoning is coming around

Well not really given:

• Lots of people were making EVs in the early 1900s, some for decades ...
• BMW was making electric cars in the 1970s: 1602e & LS Electric ...
• BMW also made the E1 & E2 in the early 1990s ...
• The GM EV1 and Honda EV were made ~ 2 years in the late 1990s ...
• The Toyota RAV4 EV was made for about 5 years in the late 90s ...
• The Nissan Leaf showed up in 2010 (2 years prior to the Model S) and is still being sold!
• The Fisker Karma came out the same year as the Model S, 2012
• The BMW i3 came out 1 year after the Model S, 2013
• The VW eGolf came out 2 years after the Model S, 2014
• The Chevy Bolt EV came out in 2017

So Tesla is far from the legacy EV manufacturer starting well behind many others, they've just made the strongest selling models.

As of now ... Lots of competition coming though ...

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/te...184534452.html

Great time to buy in! It'll be at least double by summer with the US stimulus coming ...

At $300 I'm a buyer, otherwise probably no as I already have exposure via growth index funds ... I am kinda wooed by $ARKK though ...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Come on man, just be truthful.

The point was & is, Tesla had no head start: the legacies were messing about with modern BEVs back in the 1970s, failing to bring their product to market is their fault.

Tesla succeeds because they're great at product & execution; people buy their products because they're available and compelling - not because Tesla had a head start.

If you and I have product ideas and I get moving and sell while you sit on your ass, my success isn't because of my head start ...

Come on man, at least follow the conversation!

[KRS_SN]

oh tesla is the legacy ev manufacturer alright. What they have done in decades others are trying to do in years. Good for tesla for having called it right. Bad for tesla if what they've done in decades can be done by non ev legacy manufacturers in a few years.

[TiMSport]

Not if you are simply hoping for continued acceptance of EV and the continued efforts toward the much needed infrastructure to make it more accessible and eventually cheaper.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I did follow the conversation. The utter BS

You mad? Geezus dude, it's just business analysis, no need to get all emotional ...

I'll try to be more analytically clear:

* Ad tech & online ad products existed before Google (e.g., Net Gravity)
* E-commerce products existed before Amazon (e.g., Netscape Merchant System, Books.com)
* Cell phones w/apps existed before Apple (e.g., Nokia)
* DVD rentals & video streaming existed before Netflix (e.g., Amazon! & Youtube)

* EVs & BEVs existed before Tesla (e.g., Nissan, GM, Ford, Studebaker, BMW, Benz, et al)

In all of these cases, the current winners aren't winning because they had a head start, they're winning because they had better products and executed better than competitors. The difference between Book Stacks Unlimited and Amazon in e-commerce isn't that Bezos had a head start - it's that Bezos executed.

GM, for example, had a head start in BEVs, but killed their BEV products because they had shit products. GM doesn't get a pass for being shitty product managers.


Elon Musk is simply a better business manager than ANY of the legacy auto companies: he's beating them all with only 4 models and BEV drive trains.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

oh tesla is the legacy ev manufacturer alright. What they have done in decades others are trying to do in years. Good for tesla for having called it right. Bad for tesla if what they've done in decades can be done by non ev legacy manufacturers in a few years.

The problem is the statement "ev manufacturer" - as noted above, Tesla is the #4 sales leader in the luxury autos segment as averaged over the last 3 years irrespective of drivetrain. Said differently, Tesla makes a great luxury automobile product that many people want.

Whomever the top auto sellers are in 5 years, it'll be for one reason: they make the best products for the best price for most people. It won't be for any one technology or buzzword. Everyone can make a HEMI or DOHC engine - the drivetrain isn't really the secret sauce, it's just part of it.


As for me, Tesla's auto product continues to disappoint: I don't care they're BEVs, I'm out because I don't like the overall vehicles. They're all ugly except the Model S and I was waiting to see this new one, but it's just the same shit - I honestly don't see how Tesla can call it new since it looks exactly the same and I don't see any new tech that won't be in all of the other Teslas, so who cares?

Instead I'll do Euro Delivery on a Macan Turbo because I like that product WAAAY better: analog gauges, real buttons, real shifter, driving assist tech as an afterthought.

I'm not a fan of Apple's product either ... but as an analyst I am a fan of Tesla and Apple's businesses; In 5 years Tesla and Apple will be sales leaders because they make great products, not because of any specific technology that others also have. Every automobile has an engine - most buyers don't care about it.

[GrussGott]

Timely data!

Tesla Dominating Electric Vehicle Adoption Due to Products and Ecosystem, Not Brand Image or Elon Musk, Latest Escalent Report Shows

"While perception among industry experts suggests Tesla is beating traditional automakers in the EV adoption race due to an extraordinary affection for the brand or its polarizing leader, consumers told us they are drawn to the company’s products themselves," said Mike Dovorany, Automotive & Mobility vice president at Escalent.

Top five attributes driving consideration of Tesla:

• Range
• Performance and acceleration
• Styling
• Build quality
• Vehicles are new and different

We are post-EV-vs-ICE.

A big part of that is because pre-2012 people had the perception battery-powered = low-powered. Except for phones and laptops, batteries and e-power wasn't common for tools ... then along came HIGH-POWERED battery-powered everything (drills, leaf blowers, vacuums, cars, etc). Consumers have gotten used to the notion that battery-powered means high powered ... and also high convenience.

Corded devices don't need to be recharged, but for that trade-off you get mobility and reliable use where there's no outlet including during power outages ... no more cutting the extension cord with the hedge trimmer.

With that, consumers have gotten very used to everything being battery powered and consider it simply one attribute ... the final place that transition is occurring is automobiles.

EV will no longer be a key distinguishing characteristic, rather one of many product attributes that'll be mostly transparent to most buyers.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Nice pivot.

Horse carriages, wheels and internal combustion engines existed before Mr. Ford and Mr. Benz too.

Exactly! BMW, GM, Ford, et al could've easily made EV products; in fact, they spent millions on prototypes, they just sucked at doing it ...

And Nissan, Fisker, and to some extent Toyota, DID make them, beating Tesla to BEV punch; and BMW was only a few months behind Tesla ... but Tesla's competitors made the wrong product whereas Tesla made the right product.


Once you get past comfortable emotional narratives and just focus on the business of selling automotive products it's pretty easy to see it was never about EV vs ICE, just always about selling cool cars.

Like the car business always has been.

One can love the business, but not the product.

[GrussGott]

Another timely data drop about why $TSLA ain't getting beat by the legacies, and probably never will:

• Tesla’s advantage stems not only from the scale of its operations, but also from Elon Musk’s relentless pursuit of lower battery costs, according to Cairn Energy Research Advisors.
• Battery packs are the biggest expense in manufacturing electric vehicles.
• Tesla pays an average of $142 per kWh for battery cells versus $169 per kWh for GM and an industry average of $186 per kWh.

Jaffe says Tesla’s battery packs are 10% less expensive than GM’s and 24% less than the rest of the auto industry because Musk and his team have aggressively pushed to cut costs over the last decade. “Everything is focused on cost. The lower the cost, the more affordable the cars become,” he said.

The big challenge for many automakers will be catching up to Tesla and GM on EV costs. Jaffe says some automakers like Volkswagen are making the investments needed to close the gap, but many others have not.

Tesla has other huge cost advantages as well:

• No legacy costs: factories, pensions, etc
• No advertising costs
• No dealer network and associated fees
• No shipping / import fees (in Europe as GigaBerlin comes online)

And Tesla clearly has products people are buying ... even if someone doesn't like a Tesla, will they pay a premium for another car with a worse charger network, worse technology, fewer bundled services, and lower resale?

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

The problem is the statement "ev manufacturer" - as noted above, Tesla is the #4 sales leader in the luxury autos segment as averaged over the last 3 years irrespective of drivetrain. Said differently, Tesla makes a great luxury automobile product that many people want.

Whomever the top auto sellers are in 5 years, it'll be for one reason: they make the best products for the best price for most people. It won't be for any one technology or buzzword. Everyone can make a HEMI or DOHC engine - the drivetrain isn't really the secret sauce, it's just part of it.


As for me, Tesla's auto product continues to disappoint: I don't care they're BEVs, I'm out because I don't like the overall vehicles. They're all ugly except the Model S and I was waiting to see this new one, but it's just the same shit - I honestly don't see how Tesla can call it new since it looks exactly the same and I don't see any new tech that won't be in all of the other Teslas, so who cares?

Instead I'll do Euro Delivery on a Macan Turbo because I like that product WAAAY better: analog gauges, real buttons, real shifter, driving assist tech as an afterthought.

I'm not a fan of Apple's product either ... but as an analyst I am a fan of Tesla and Apple's businesses; In 5 years Tesla and Apple will be sales leaders because they make great products, not because of any specific technology that others also have. Every automobile has an engine - most buyers don't care about it.

Im not sure EVs for most people are a cheap(purchase price)or convenient option.
To illustrate this How much more would the macan turbo cost if it was an EV and not ICE.
If you take out the environmental aspect its lose lose for everyone.
Anyway Tesla a 'luxury' automaker People who want 'luxury' aren't associated with tesla value yes.

[GenXer]

Why do Tesla insist on using vinyl upholstery? PU leather is still fancy vinyl.

There is such a thing as cowhide and people eat beef all the time. There are endless supply of cow parts.

Leather is a much better seating surface and it wears really well too especially nappa leather.

[GenXer]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Because it doesn't fit the narrative of low environmental impact.

Is vinyl not made from petroleum? I know they can make foam cushion form from soy. But PU is still plastic.

https://www.btod.com/blog/what-is-pu-leather/

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

Im not sure EVs for most people are a cheap(purchase price)or convenient option.
To illustrate this How much more would the macan turbo cost if it was an EV and not ICE.

yeah, agreed on price and somewhat on convenience: right now a Tesla is likely primarily a 2nd car and a luxury car ... the Model 3/Y is starting to change that but it's still a high priced vehicle compared to lots of similar lower cost options. (Though I'd argue a BEV is more convenient for the suburban home owner: no petrol trips, less maintenance, etc)

The broader point is, ICE vehicles are at the peak of their cost/efficiency with 100 years of incremental evolution versus BEVs which are just starting up that curve both in terms of scale and components ... for BEVs it'll come down to battery production (and materials) and vertical integration.

Tesla breaks the savings this way:



So as the batteries get cheaper, and the overall economies of scale kick in, then the $25,000 EV starts looking likely by 2025.

As for the EV Macan Turbo ... I guess we'll find out next year!

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by GenXer

Is vinyl not made from petroleum? I know they can make foam cushion form from soy. But PU is still plastic.

https://www.btod.com/blog/what-is-pu-leather/

As fun as turning everything into a whiney political narrative is, the correct answer is the old business rule of thumb: Because that's what Tesla customers want to buy!

Personally I hate leather and much prefer cloth, but it's been decades since I've had it because it's just not available ... my last one had Individual Opal and it was awesome:

[GenXer]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Cows emit greenhouse gasses. PU is 100% Vegan. PU can also be made from soybeans. I like Naugahyde, but it uses the "C" word.

Tesla should dig up the Henry Ford archives. Ole Henry was an environmentalist and believed cars could be made from soybeans. Ford motor company did a lot of R&D in that area.

Cows don't produced green house gases when they're on your plate or covering your cushion.