[GrussGott]

Exxon with 4 straight quarters of losses ... punters should be waiting for the merger with Chevron

[GrussGott]

More ICE death news:

Morgan Stanley [auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a Jan. 29] argues ICE ... is destined to become money-losers as early as 2030. “We believe the market may be ascribing zero (or even negative?) value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford ... [various factors will] transform what were once profit-generating assets into potentially loss-making and cash-burning businesses”

And the evidence:

Morgan Stanley surveyed institutional investors on the value of internal-combustion technology at GM and Ford: 17% said ICE technology had no value or negative value today, 60% rated ICE technology as slightly positive, while 23% said it was a significantly positive value.

And this is, of course, with BEVs at ~2% of market share.

[GrussGott]

Apple & Hyundai/Kia (supposedly) building an autonomous BEV for 2024 in Georgia

[GrussGott]

I think this will cause some problems for the Tesla ... if Tesla is going get killed by competitors it'll start here:



I'd consider it over a Tesla for this reason alone ... to bad about the range though:

[AlexFL]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I think this will cause some problems for the Tesla ... if Tesla is going get killed by competitors it'll start here:

It's a bit too expensive, don't you think?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by AlexFL

It's a bit too expensive, don't you think?

Hard to say ... you can make a case either way:

(a.) No it's competitively priced
It's priced similar to Tesla Model S ($80k, $110k, $140k) but with faster charging, likely better quality, obviously way better interior and materials plus it's priced somewhat less than Porsche with similar range and charging.

(b.) Yes, it's way over priced
The cheapest eTron GT is $20k more expensive than a long-range model S but with way less range, a way crappier charging network, and a worse software experience (arguably worse UI, worse updates, fewer features).

so it probably comes down to what you value ... though it does bring up a question of VAG BEV market segments:

Share PPE:
* Porsche - "luxury" performance?
* Audi - "premium" performance?

Share MEB:
* VW - "volume" mobility?





So does the e-tron GT differ from the taycan like the Macan differs from the SQ5?

That kinda works in the SUV market, but will it work in the BEV market or will it be confusing?

Or will VAG split up?

[KRS_SN]

This is a post for GrussGott.
My dad in 1996 bought a lot of shares in many startup companies out of hard-earned cash as a Doctor.
most of them went nowhere.
I recall that of them (Infosys) was floated at
.79 rs
He had a lot of shares in them
In 2002 I recall telling him why didn't you sell as it was riding high and he told me son I don't need to sell I bought it so cheap I will lose nothing on it.
Right it's share price is 1279 now!
Ie from 0.79 to 1279 from 1995 to now. Its an IT firm.
I just remembered all of this 2 days ago. Next time I talk to him I have to ask him how many 1000s of shares he owns in this as I'm sure he would have sat on it!
Tesla bears (as long as you can sit in it for long gruss) might be in for a treat) for retirement time! .
In short term though maybe losses etc.
You can still make money off tesla shares but not buy the product (my dad is super tech illetrate)
btw good luck on the macan.With 3 kids for me x5 7 seater is just an unbeatable proposition!

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

I recall that of them (Infosys) was floated at
.79 rs

Ie from 0.79 to 1279 from 1995 to now.

wow, that's the angel dream: fund a bunch and you only need one to hit, and boy it sounds like he did!

[GrussGott]

on another note ... Germany moving to approve L4 autonomous driving

[GrussGott]

Good video on how easy it would be for the US to produce enough power for electric cars

TLDR: 30% electric power increase or about 6.5 years if we expand at the same rate as we did air conditioning, 4%/year.

[skoold2003]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Good video on how easy it would be for the US to produce enough power for electric cars

TLDR: 30% electric power increase or about 6.5 years if we expand at the same rate as we did air conditioning, 4%/year.

Interesting point, I've often wondered how EVs will affect our power demands. Remember that Elon is in the solar game too so it's kind of a win win for him. Probably explains why he's got a hard on for Bitcoin too.. it's very power hungry.

[GrussGott]

Some interesting data coming in from Germany KBA.de on whether "The Bigs" will have an effect on Tesla sales & retention:

German auto market (VW vs Tesla):
# used, Model, (1st German Delivery), total sold to date, % on used market
Sorted by # used on the market

1,303 Audi e-tron (Mar 2018) 11713 11.1%
601 Porsche Taycan (Dec 2019) 3234 18.6%
525 VW ID.3 (Sept 2020) 14493 3.6%
339 Model 3 (Feb 2019) 24215 1.4%
151 Model X (Jun 2016) 3602 4.2%
495 Model S (Aug 2013) 9118 5.4%

In sum, in Germany, Tesla EVs have been on the market much longer, sold in higher numbers, and have a much lower % on the used market ... however the ID.3 may be a competitor ...

Some notes/thoughts:

■ Comparing the Taycan with the much lower priced models (bought for different use) might not be fair

■ VAG is likely to be selling dealer demos and company cars as is their practice and all of their models are relatively new - this could drive up used %

■ The Audi e-tron doesn't look healthy ...

• Models S&X have been on the market awhile and not sold in high #s

• The Model 3 and ID.3 seem to compare well in terms of #s (though ID.3 is double the used rate)

[Fly320s]

The way to beat Tesla is to build a better EV. It is that simple.

Better quality, better range, better features, better price. If another car can be better in two or more of those categories, they will start taking market share.

[GrussGott]

And in US sales news, Tesla now registering more new cars than Audi (not EVs, cars):

US Luxury Autos Segment - 2020 New Vehicle Registrations

#1 - BMW - 287,000
#2 - Lexus - 271,000
#3 - Mercedes-Benz - 266,000
#4 - Tesla - 200,561
#5 - Audi - 184,000

[sygazelle]

Originally Posted by Fly320s

The way to beat Tesla is to build a better EV. It is that simple.

Better quality, better range, better features, better price. If another car can be better in two or more of those categories, they will start taking market share.

And, Tesla knows this too. They will not be sitting still.

All of this competition between competitors is good for all of us, regardless of what car we buy.

[evil-G-nius]

EV's bore me. Just my 2 cents. I know that is the way things are going in the future but luckily you won't get rid of fueled rides for a long time so I hold comfort in that. I drove the Model S and I was not wowed like some people. Too quiet (of course), after the exceleration is over...then what? It was a detached from the road feel with zero sound that made me hate it. When I drive I like the engine noise, I like the exhaust note and I like to feel the road & know what my car is up to. EV's just don't offer that experience & never will...even if they decide to "reproduce" that electronically it will never be the same

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

And in US sales news, Tesla now registering more new cars than Audi (not EVs, cars):

US Luxury Autos Segment - 2020 New Vehicle Registrations

#1 - BMW - 287,000
#2 - Lexus - 271,000
#3 - Mercedes-Benz - 266,000
#4 - Tesla - 200,561
#5 - Audi - 184,000

bmw still at the top . No problem seeing audi beaten.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by evil-G-nius

EV's bore me. Just my 2 cents. I know that is the way things are going in the future but luckily you won't get rid of fueled rides for a long time so I hold comfort in that. I drove the Model S and I was not wowed like some people. Too quiet (of course), after the exceleration is over...then what? It was a detached from the road feel with zero sound that made me hate it. When I drive I like the engine noise, I like the exhaust note and I like to feel the road & know what my car is up to. EV's just don't offer that experience & never will...even if they decide to "reproduce" that electronically it will never be the same

having never driven an ev(have been a passenger umpteen times your comment makes me wonder.
With EV will there be consistency ie each time same acceleration,? With ice depending on gear throttle fuel engine temperature sports mode etc results are variable. Is that thrill of variability a charm?

[David70]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

And in US sales news, Tesla now registering more new cars than Audi (not EVs, cars):

US Luxury Autos Segment - 2020 New Vehicle Registrations

#1 - BMW - 287,000
#2 - Lexus - 271,000
#3 - Mercedes-Benz - 266,000
#4 - Tesla - 200,561
#5 - Audi - 184,000

If I was the VW/Audi/Porsche group I would say their group still sold more luxury vehicles in 2020 in the U.S. than Tesla. They don't care if someone picks a Porsche over an Audi. I think this group ends up pretty close to the top 4 and far ahead of Tesla.

[GrussGott]

buh buh buh the subsidies!

And your total as-of-2020 winner is ... Boeing.
then 3 other automakers.
then TSLA.

[NorCalAthlete]

RE: power hungry stuff and Tesla - As I understood it Elon's long game was always the underlying infrastructure and tech, the cars were just a vehicle (pun intended) to get society to where we needed it.

Mining bitcoin is really only viable these days if you've got really cheap electricity or aren't paying for your electricity - for example I know of a couple people who work in data centers that have X amount of rackspace dedicated to employee projects for free as a perk, so they threw some bitcoin rigs in there for themselves.

If you have Tesla roof + powerwall or solar panels though, to the point where you're selling electricity back to the network, bitcoin could indeed be far more viable again at home.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete

As I understood it Elon's long game was always the underlying infrastructure and tech, the cars were just a vehicle (pun intended) to get society to where we needed it.

Can't say what is long game is or was, but Tesla is pretty clearly an energy technology company using auto sales to fund its tech build just like Amazon is a logistics tech company that used book sales to build its tech or google that used search revenue to build its ad tech or netflix that used dvd rentals to fund it streaming tech ...

and as long as we're talking business models, two points:

(1.) Zero Marginal Costs
Software companies have high valuations because the marginal cost to add a new customer is trivial, i.e, selling another Microsoft Office copy has almost zero cost, but relatively high revenue, and upgrades to Office are also low costs and get another fee. Tesla is starting to do this with its software ...

(2.) Virtuous Cycle
The greater the market share, the greater the economies of scale, thus the cheaper the prices, thus the more market share, thus more scale, etc etc. Amazon is preeminent example of this. Tesla is building some of the largest battery production technology and infrastructure in the World AND its already got multiple channels to sell its own batteries and software: autos, semis, megapack, powerwall.

(3.) Recurring Revenue
Joe Rogan's podcast, by itself, is not worth $100M ... but combined with other content it can be used to get people over the hurdle to pay a monthly fee, i.e., if you don't like spotify music you might like Rogan plus you also get the music so why not? Amazon does this with prime: you might not order enough packages to make it worthwhile but you also get the movies so ok. Tesla has this with its supercharger network ... most auto companies need to make an expiring product, but Tesla can make forever cars and basically sell supercharger subscriptions where you get the car for free ... not to mention Tesla can also then sell the battery capacity to energy companies!


So consider this for a moment:

* You pay for your battery factories with auto sales
* You sell the batteries with the car, let's say for cost
* You're now getting subscription revenue for superchargers from your battery customers ...
* You're also getting recurring revenue for the battery network from energy companies (in place of them building peaker plants)
* and the more EVs on the road, the more energy companies need peakers

It makes Amazon's virtuous cycle look rinky-dink.