[EstorilM240]

Inspired by the "Why is the Manual transmission a dying breed?" thread

Before scrolling down to see the numbers, feel free take a guess first. These numbers are compiled from auto inventory on cars.com a few months ago. Some of these numbers can be corroborated with manufacturer statements and blog posts on autoblog.com. This is for the US market only, for listed new cars.

There are some statistical issues including

(1) automatic transmission cars, especially DSG or with paddles, labeled as manual (not THAT common but definitely an issue - could automatically scrape photos and try to detect gear shifters)

(2) manual transmission vehicles generally take longer to sell, and may be overrepresented on dealer lots especially when the take rate is low

(3) not all vehicles are sold through dealers - some cars the manual is generally special-ordered (see BMW 2 series), others, a flood of automatic transmission rentals doesn't show up (Mustangs)

(4) for previous model years (see below), this is only what is listed on cars.com, and cars.com may skew more toward expensive vehicles or a particular demographic vs. Craigslist. There are a lot of other good data sources.

The list

The manual truists: Majority manual
Subaru WRX - 88%: 1712 / (1712 + 214 + 25 + 3)
Subaru BRZ - 86%: 48 vs. 289

Mazda Miata soft top: 66%: 600 / ( 310 + 600)
Toyota 86 - 66%
VW Golf R: 60.8%: 254 / (254 + 124 + 40)

Mazda Miata RF: 57%: 477 / (363 + 477 + 1)
VW Jetta GLI: 54.3%: 862 / (862 + 481 + 242 + 2)

Enthusiast shifter heavy: 30-50% manual

VW Golf GTI: 47%: 1019 / (1019 + 773 + 369 + 4)

BMW M2: 43%: 39 / ( 39 + 33 + 9 + 10)
Fiat 124 Spider: 33% - 411 / (411 + 672 + 168)
VW Golf non-GTI non-R: 30.9%: 988 / (988 + 1771 + 435 + 3) are the DSGs listed as manual?
Hyundai Veloster: 30.6%: 409 / (409 + 797 + 129 + 1)
BMW M6 Gran Coupe: 30% - 3 vs 7

The loud minority: 20-30% manual
Ford Mustang - 28%: 4312 / (4312 + 9697 + 99 + 1232)
Nissan 370Z: 23.8%: 94 / (94 + 3+ 298)
BMW M4: 23%: 107 / (107 + 48 + 244 + 64)
Chevrolet Camaro: 22% 1559 / (1559 + 5437 + 55)
Porsche Cayman: 21.5%: 121 / (121 + 106 + 220 + 115)
Cadillac ATS V: 21%: 3 / (9 + 3+ 2)

At risk: 10-20% manual
Porsche Boxster: 19.2%: 96 / (96 + 96 + 217 + 89). 96 manual, 96 automanual
Chevrolet Corvette - 17%: 857 / (857 + 4250 + 20)
Porsche 911: 13.6%: 109 / (109 + 341 + 166 + 186)
Nissan Versa sedan only: 12.2%: 552 / (552 + 3903 + 61 + 2) * cheapest new car
VW Jetta non-GLI: 10.6%: 636 / (636 + 5387 + 2)

Still double the average: 5-10% manual
Toyota Yaris all 9.5%: 311 / (311 + 2762 + 185)
Mini cooper all: 7.3%: 454 / (454 + 560 + 5185 + 32)
Ford Fiesta: 7.1% : 681 / (681 + 2 + 934 + 6376 + 1570) excluding ST
Fiat 500 gas: 6.2% 133 / (133 + 1792 + 37 + 188)
Dodge Challenger: 5.3% 474 / (474 + 8283 + 257)
MItsubishi Mirage+G4: 5.0%: 290 / (290 + 1959 + 3260 + 240), 1959 unknown

Still barely above average: 2-5% manual
Chevrolet Spark: 4.6%: 145 / (145 + 2201 + 620)
Subrau Impreza, non WRX trim: 4.6%: 286 / (286 + 79 + 5844 + 8)
Honda Civic ex Si/R: 4.2%: 2096 / (2096 + 47065 + 817 + 2)
Kia Forte/Koupe: 4.2%: 507 / (507 + 102 + 10629 + 808+ 1)
Toyota Corolla + Hatch: 3.8%: 886 / (886 + 21846 + 179 + 335)
BMW 440i Coupe: 3.7%: 16 / (16 + 355 + 64)
Hyundai Accent: 3.4%: 120 / (120 + 3394 + 1)
Genesis G70: 3.1%: 73 / (73 + 2278)

BMW 230i coupe: 2.7%: 2 / (65 + 2 + 8)
Honda Accord - 2.6%: 895 / (26876 + 7242 + 895 + 1)
Mazda3: - 2.55%: 240 / (240 + 1 + 9158)
Hyundai Elantra+GT: 2.0%: 388 / (388 + 173 + 18822 + 9)

Below average: 0-2% manual
Nissan Sentra: 1.8% 359 / (359 + 18586 + 602)
Honda Fit - 1.6%: 101 / (101 + 6105 + 112 + 1)
BMW M240i coupe+conv - 1.6%: 4 / ( 4 + 232 +12)
Chevy Sonic: 1.6%: 36 / ( 2194 + 36)
BMW 430i coupe: 0.806%: 4 / (4 + 446 + 46)
BMW 440i Coupe + Gran Coupe: 0.712%: 16 / (16 + 1084 + 64 + 1084)
Jaguar F Type: 0.641%: 4 / (4 + 620)

Manual only vehicles (I didn't check these, could be good to see misclassification):

Honda Civic Si
Honda Civic Type R
Subaru Impreza WRX STi
Shelby GT350

Ford Fiesta ST (Production ending or ended mid-2019)
Ford Focus RS (Production ending or ended mid-2019)

2019 Manual vehicles that no longer offer manual for 2020:
Chevrolet Corvette
Jaguar F Type

[EstorilM240]

Manuals over time (still using cars.com inventory):

ALL NEW VEHICLES: 1.4% of dealer inventory
2019 vehicles: 1.310%
2018 vehicles: 1.87%
2017: 2.520%
2016: 2.124% (Huge flood of lease returns which are overwhelmingly automatic)
2015: 2.861%
2014: 4.366%
2013: 5.051%
2012: 5.513%
2011: 4.688%
2010: 5.488%
2009: 6.615
2008: 6.79%
2007: 6.97%
2006: 8.517%
2003: 9.018%
2000: 12.67%
1997: 21.4%
1994: 25.4%

Anomalies:
2012: I honestly don't' know why the manual take rate ticked up in 2012 vs. 2011. Maybe a bunch of those small Japanese imports got delayed into here

2011: Earthquake halts production at many Japanese automakers: http://www.valueline.com/Stocks/Comm....aspx?id=10972 this causes a temporary decline in manual take rate IMO

Performance cars where the manual transmission is faster than automatic to 60mph:
Subaru BRZ/Toyota 86: About 1 second, due to +5hp and super tall gearing on the 6AT
Subaru WRX: 0.2/0.3s, due to CVT in WRX
Mazda Miata: About 0.1s
Fiat 124: Same
BMW M2 Competition (2020): 0.1s, amazingly, due to the DCT launch being difficult

Some of my opinions:

Why did manuals die, IMO?
Autos became much better: Contrast the ZF-8 with a classic 4 speed slushbox

Autos became faster than manuals: You usually give up 0.2s going to 60mph for the 4s to 5s performance range.

Super-high-horsepower cars are difficult to manage with manuals: As the absolute highest horsepower cars went from something like 400hp to 650hp/700hp, there is just too much acceleration to do well and traction management is harder.
New generation of auto enthusiasts is smaller

A death spiral happens as the take rate is too low: Manual vehicles sit on lots for longer, the depreciation is higher (except maybe in the exotics category), etc.

Electrification is hard with manuals, and that is the way of the automotive world

Automation and active safety systems add tons of engineering complexity. even if Honda has pulled it off on all of their cars (Honda Sensing with manual) and BMW has done it on the 2 series, doing ti for another cycle is probably not worth it.

Manual vehicles probably cost more to operate: Losing 3MPG and paying for a $1000-2000 clutch job over time adds up, and often time automatics are a zero-cost option.

What about other countries?
Some countries have shifted rapidly e.g. I believe China eliminated its "you must get your driver's license in manual" rule, and I've seen a massive shift in the domestic auto market since 2006 (of course, then the GDP was far lower, and a huge part of the vehicle was domestic market Chinese vehicles). I don't know of a good nationwide website to do a search like below.

Canada has an anti-manual rule: learner's licenses cannot drive manual.

The UK is close to 50/50 auto/manual, but it used to be closer to 66/33. I can only go off autotrader.co.uk data here.

The % of manual vehicles at rental agencies in Europe has declined hugely.

Will there be any NEW manual-transmission-only vehicles?
There will probably be either one or two in the next decade, mainly enthusiast cars in the 20-50K segment

Will there be any NEW manual-transmission hybrid vehicles?
I don't see Honda making another Insight or CR-Z or Civic Hybrid. But this is an interesting question

Will there be any NEW manual-transmission electric vehicles?
The Audi e tron was rumored to have a 3 speed transmission, and the original Tesla Roadster rumored to have been prototyped with a 2 speed transmission, but basically no electric vehicle have manuals.

[henrylee]

Very interesting to see WRX at 88%

[Machinebuilder]

Now I know why I dont see many other BMW 440i Coupes like mine with a manual 6 mt....only a 3.7% rate...very well done break down....thank you

[spazzyfry123]

Great data!

Curious what info would be pulled for the bigger vehicles. I still see a lot of manual Jeeps and some Tacomas for example.

[Draman]

Originally Posted by henrylee

Very interesting to see WRX at 88%

Nothing interesting about it when the auto version is a CVT. Nobody wants a CVT, especially in what is otherwise an enthusiasts vehicle

[Soterios]

The list makes sense. $25,000-$40,000 seems reasonable for a young enthusiast car purchase, so more manuals get sold. Too much higher than that and you're getting into a generation that apparently doesn't want to hassle with shifting anymore.

I always get sad about this stuff but then remember that I'm a part of the 'problem'. I'm annoyed that the new Vette is auto only, but that car wasn't made for me. Though most new cars aren't. I'm buying manual transmission sports cars still, just not new ones.

[mkoesel]

Great research. Regardless of the statistical issues you mention, this is a clever way to try to get numbers that automakers don't necessarily make public. I do think that many of these are reading a bit high due to the misclassification you mention, but with further analysis such as sourcing from more resale websites, you could probably come up with more solid data.

A coupe small things jumped out:

- The M6 Gran Coupe went out of production around the middle of last year after MY2018 ended

- The 4 Series Gran Coupe has no manual transmission option, so it isn't altogether fair to lump it in with the coupe

- The Focus RS ended production last year with the rest of the Focus lineup (no 2019 model)

- The ATS-V Coupe is ending production after MY2019

Here's a very recent article (and, from what I can tell - a much higher quality effort than other similar ones I've seen in the past) listing all manual transmission vehicles currently available in the US.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ever...r-you-can-buy/

Of course, the Corvette and ATS-V will need to come off the list soon, and the 2020 Sonic is also losing the manual option according to GM Authority. The Fiesta needs to be removed too since, as you mention, that ended after MY2019. Furthermore, VW recently announced that they are killing the SportWagen/Alltrack entirely after MY2019. However, it is looking pretty certain that the CT-4 "V+" and CT-5 "V+" will be new additions, and the G80 M3 will also likely need to be put on the list too.

[GuidoK]

Where I live for 2018-2019 34,3% of all cars sold has an automatic.
So 65,7% of all sold cars still has a manual here.
But that's still an increase of 100% over the last ~10 years (in 2006 17,3% of all sold cars had an automatic).
But this is of course europe. Total different cars here (way more compact cars), but here the tide is shifting too.

[RM7]

I was going to say WRX. I had one (manual). The 4EAT that subaru sold it in for so long, along with the FXT, was simply a horrible transmission. Severely handicapped the car.

There are plenty of cars where this is not so dramatic, good ZF 8 speeds and DCT transmissions on many cars are absolutely acceptable for performance and fun.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by EstorilM240

Manual only vehicles (I didn't check these, could be good to see misclassification):

Honda Civic Si
Honda Civic Type R
Subaru Impreza WRX STi
Shelby GT350
Camaro 1SS/2SS 1LE

Ford Fiesta ST (Production ending or ended mid-2019)
Ford Focus RS (Production ending or ended mid-2019)


2019 Manual vehicles that no longer offer manual for 2020:
Chevrolet Corvette
Jaguar F Type

Unfortunately (for purists), I believe the ZL1-1LE is now offered with the 10spd.

[b92]

Most of the M6 Gran Coupe listings are DCT incorrectly listed as manual. Of the 23 'manual' M6 Gran Coupes listed on CarGurus, only one actually has 3 pedals:

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/lp/sea...ting=243675311

[NickyC]

Wait a minute, the M6 Grand Coupe was available with a manual?!? :O

I mean they have to be nearly impossible find, but I might look for one in a couple years!

[b92]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Wait a minute, the M6 Grand Coupe was available with a manual?!? :O

I mean they have to be nearly impossible find, but I might look for one in a couple years!

I remember playing with the configurator years ago and manual wasn't an option, must be a pretty exclusive special order. I linked one that's available in NJ.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by b92

I remember playing with the configurator years ago and manual wasn't an option, must be a pretty exclusive special order. I linked one that's available in NJ.

Thanks, learn something new everyday!

Original MSRP on that car was $132,550 apparently, 2016 now with 29k miles and it's selling for $56,800.

Holy depreciation!!

[TheMidnightNarwhal]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Thanks, learn something new everyday!

Original MSRP on that car was $132,550 apparently, 2016 now with 29k miles and it's selling for $56,800.

Holy depreciation!!

Damn are you serious? Carzy.

But yeah I was pretty sure the only M with manuals were M2 and M3/M4??

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by TheMidnightNarwhal

Damn are you serious? Carzy.

But yeah I was pretty sure the only M with manuals were M2 and M3/M4??

Yeah, but check out his link. The unicorn exists!

I'd love to shake hands with the original owner of that car.

[Run Silent]

This makes me so sad.

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by TheMidnightNarwhal

Damn are you serious? Carzy.

But yeah I was pretty sure the only M with manuals were M2 and M3/M4??

E60 and F10 M5s also had a manual. I think it was just a USA thing though.

[b92]

Originally Posted by TheMidnightNarwhal

Damn are you serious? Carzy.

But yeah I was pretty sure the only M with manuals were M2 and M3/M4??

M5 and M6 have been available in manual forever, not sure about Canada though.

[clee1982]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

E60 and F10 M5s also had a manual. I think it was just a USA thing though.

yup just US

[gatorfast]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Thanks, learn something new everyday!

Original MSRP on that car was $132,550 apparently, 2016 now with 29k miles and it's selling for $56,800.

Holy depreciation!!

The M5 and M6 depreciate at insane rates. Definitely a car to lease over purchase.