[chassis]

Alfisti, you are in one of the most expensive metro areas in North America. The figure you gave is a little more than 9% annual appreciation. While high, it doesn’t surprise me for GTA. The pandemic hasn’t affected the macro picture yet. People will always need a place to live.

[freakystyly]

Homes have easily doubled in almost all of Ontario over the last 10 years. While prices aren't at Vancouver or Toronto levels everywhere, they are still going for tens to hundreds of thousands over asking even during pandemic times. New supply is not driving prices down either.

[Flacht3]

Originally Posted by freakystyly

Homes have easily doubled in almost all of Ontario over the last 10 years. While prices aren't at Vancouver or Toronto levels everywhere, they are still going for tens to hundreds of thousands over asking even during pandemic times. New supply is not driving prices down either.

I'm no expert but I think you'll see some weakness in condo/apartments but strength in single-family homes (townhomes, etc).

People are prioritizing space and realizing what it's like to be truly trapped in a shoe-box sized apartment (I speak as someone who has lived in shoe-boxes in NYC and SF and couldn't fathom being in that position right now). It's fine when you're only home from 6pm onwards, and send the kids to school, daycare, etc. but imagine being in a 900 sft 2 bedroom apartment with you, your significant other, both trying to take conference calls and do work, while you have a 3 year old running around. I know several folks in that exact situation and I do not envy them

Plus with metro development there will be a push for density. "You can always build up" but you won't see new single family homes going up when it could/should be zoned for dense housing. Therefore I think they'll always be desirable (no new supply) in areas pushing for density and single family homes will always see a bit more resilience even as the overall real estate market bucks. Just my take.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by DarkstarZero

You'll need to wait 6 months. The crash won't even start for 4.

Still no meltdown. Vehicle price is the same as it was when I started my target searches early in the pandemic. Inventory (number of listings) is eerily the same as several months ago. Could dealers have a large inventory and be slowly feeding it (listing for sale) into the market?

[dgoldenz]

If anything, it seems prices have gone up due to lack of supply. Some of the cars I was looking at only have half as many on the market as a few months ago.

[RMachuca3d]

Originally Posted by dgoldenz

If anything, it seems prices have gone up due to lack of supply. Some of the cars I was looking at only have half as many on the market as a few months ago.

they're being hoarded somewhere :P.

Slightly sarcastic comment though, I'm sure there's a shred of truth to it.

[Alfisti]

Inventory is down 35% for what I am looking for, prices firm. It is INSANE.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Inventory is down 35% for what I am looking for, prices firm. It is INSANE.

That's not insane, that's trying to cut your losses.

[Alfisti]

WHat's insane is an economy with horrible numbers worldwide is still seeing car prices rise, it makes no sense.

[Gray_Panther]

something is off and it doesn't make sense.
Many small businesses have failed, and many people just don't find work out of thin air. The government printing money to keep the economy going could be an explanation for rise in prices, but what happens when government support runs out and people are back to supporting their own selves?

edit: I have scoured some specific cars, and their pricing has increased, with some cars the inventory being about the same or decreased.

[eluded]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

WHat's insane is an economy with horrible numbers worldwide is still seeing car prices rise, it makes no sense.

Yeah guessing less new cars (prod was cut) along with less consumer income means more people looking at used cars. even then with economy contracting by a third last quarter makes no sense.

[aerostar]

It's all a temporary band-aid IMO.

Dealers are hiding inventory to create artificially low supply. Don't know how they will deal with the depreciation of the stock that they have off in their storage lots.

[David70]

Originally Posted by aerostar

It's all a temporary band-aid IMO.

Dealers are hiding inventory to create artificially low supply. Don't know how they will deal with the depreciation of the stock that they have off in their storage lots.

Highly doubtful. First, I have been to dealerships for our cars and driven buy others, they don't have massive lots to store cars they don't want to sell now. Where are they storing them, and when you tell them you are interested in a car, they only offer the "good inventory"? Then, unlike stocks or other investments that people try to time, cars generally depreciate, and relatively new cars a pretty high rate. If you have a relatively new car that is losing $3k-$5k a year, waiting 6 months to offer it for sale is unlikely to have them come out ahead. Sitting on hundreds of thousands of generally depreciating assets that need to be cleaned and maintained is also very expensive.

As most here say the prices haven't come down, wouldn't it be a great idea to sell them now instead of holding onto this giant inventory that has monthly costs? There isn't a giant used car cartel controlling what each dealer does.

[chassis]

Inventory can be held in cornfields, yes cornfields. And airport tarmacs, and many other places. It happens. Auction yards are one place to investigate, if one has time on one's hands.

The US Fed just released latest motor vehicle data. The market is strong.

- sales of vehicles are increasing
- inventory:sales ratio is in check
- production of new vehicles is increasing

Furthermore, today's employment report was net positive, bullish for continued vehicle price support. All of the above comments on the Fed are data that can be verified.

Anecdotally in my area, homes are flying on and off the market, and it's not unusual to see 5-10 vehicles per day in a very small geographic area (my daily errands route) with temporary registrations, meaning there has been a recent financial transaction. Interest rates are low, an important factor in vehicle affordability. My local BMW and M-B dealers are smiling like Cheshire cats, as they normally do, because of the good market.

Overall I am bullish. Will there be bumps in the road? Likely. But the direction is higher in my view.

If anyone chooses to take the "prices/economy/stock market will crash" perspective, please support it with data and widely accepted economic concepts.

[Alfisti]

Economic concepts?

How's this sound, unemployment is at near record levels and those people consume, doesn't matter what they consume it is irrelevant. Their lack of consumption will have a knock on effect that sees sales drop and companies let more people go in reaction to lower sales.

I think the money handed out has had more effect than people realise and when it dries up, or if it does, the hurt will arrive.

The current situation flies in the face of all economic principles.

[David70]

Originally Posted by chassis

Inventory can be held in cornfields, yes cornfields. And airport tarmacs, and many other places. It happens. Auction yards are one place to investigate, if one has time on one's hands.

The US Fed just released latest motor vehicle data. The market is strong.

- sales of vehicles are increasing
- inventory:sales ratio is in check
- production of new vehicles is increasing

Furthermore, today's employment report was net positive, bullish for continued vehicle price support. All of the above comments on the Fed are data that can be verified.

Anecdotally in my area, homes are flying on and off the market, and it's not unusual to see 5-10 vehicles per day in a very small geographic area (my daily errands route) with temporary registrations, meaning there has been a recent financial transaction. Interest rates are low, an important factor in vehicle affordability. My local BMW and M-B dealers are smiling like Cheshire cats, as they normally do, because of the good market.

Overall I am bullish. Will there be bumps in the road? Likely. But the direction is higher in my view.

If anyone chooses to take the "prices/economy/stock market will crash" perspective, please support it with data and widely accepted economic concepts.

Sales of vehicles in increasing - better than it was doesn't mean back to normal
Inventory: sales ratio in check - virtually all production stopped for some amount of time
Production of new vehicles is increasing - virtually all production stopped for some amount of time

Where did you see that the market is strong?

[Alfisti]

You cannot have this many people without work and not have consequences, if we do then fuck it, all economic theory can be turfed.

[c0bra]

Similar comment to some others...

I see temp plates everywhere, every day! Lots of used Bimmers with those plates too. People who are still employed have more spending cash due to not taking vacations, going out to dinners, etc. A lot of those individuals are also avoiding public transport, myself included. So why not get a new (used) car.

I've also noticed that a paper plate = much higher likelihood the driver is an idiot!! My third finger has been getting quite the workout lately.

[chassis]

The US Federal government (FRED site) just released consumer credit data moments ago. Vehicle loans are at an all time record.

Alfisti I agree unemployment is at an all time high. This also needs to be taken together with all data about the velocity and direction of the economy.

Many of the "unemployed" have not lost their jobs permanently. They have filed a claim for unemployment compensation, are receiving said compensation, and will be recalled to work by their employer. In the interim, many of these people I am speaking of are receiving healthcare benefits (insurance) from their employers, as if they were working a normal schedule. I know this from first hand experience among people I know.

Conclusion - don't fight the tape. The tape in this case is the stream of economic data supporting the notion that a price crash in used high performance German 4 doors is not on the horizon. The reasons for absence of a crash can be debated ad infinitum. The fact remains that prices haven't crashed, and in my view are unlikely to crash.

This is the only interest I have in this thread, whether or not I can pick up a recent model German hot rod for cheap.

[freakystyly]

Originally Posted by chassis

Many of the "unemployed" have not lost their jobs permanently. They have filed a claim for unemployment compensation, are receiving said compensation, and will be recalled to work by their employer. In the interim, many of these people I am speaking of are receiving healthcare benefits (insurance) from their employers, as if they were working a normal schedule. I know this from first hand experience among people I know.

It was quite uncertain (this is Canadian news) https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job...d-19-1.5526961 In April they were panicking like everyone else with a high estimate of 85%. It looks like it topped out around 12-13%. It may take a while longer for it to reach the 5% we had in February tho.

With Canada reopening, those numbers are dropping fast. The government money will continue and things will mostly be unaffected. People refusing to pay rents will start to be allowed to be evicted soon but I think it will take longer for the banks to kick out of their homes.

Of course this is assuming things don't spike again in a few weeks (Canada) with school or months with colder weather.

[GERMAN M3]

Originally Posted by Gray_Panther

something is off and it doesn't make sense.
Many small businesses have failed, and many people just don't find work out of thin air. The government printing money to keep the economy going could be an explanation for rise in prices, but what happens when government support runs out and people are back to supporting their own selves?

edit: I have scoured some specific cars, and their pricing has increased, with some cars the inventory being about the same or decreased.

Pricing has definitely increased. Here is a used 2019 Golf R with 9000 miles on the clock going for $45,000!
Insane!

http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/213077f8

[Gray_Panther]

Originally Posted by GERMAN M3

Pricing has definitely increased. Here is a used 2019 Golf R with 9000 miles on the clock going for $45,000!
Insane!

http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/213077f8

Over retail for a one year old mass produced vehicle is out of this world ridiculous!

It just makes me wonder if the auto industry will crash or just steadily decline over time.