[NemesisX]

I've seen some sources from Berkeley that estimate that 99% of swing traders/day traders do worse than the S&P500 in the long run (repeated day trading/swing trading versus buy and hold). Hilariously, the number 1 predictor for failure was length of time day trading/swing trading. In other words, the longer one day trades/swing trades the worse they do.

Are people really motivated by a 1% chance to beat the market? Seems awfully small.

Hedge funds (overall) have a better track record, although they're still well less than 50%.

[MisterF80M3]

Originally Posted by BimmerDimmer6

Is USO ever going to be a "buy," it still seems risky even down like 80%... maybe if it was like a nickel?

Just let it bottom out first. No point catching a falling knife.

[BimmerDimmer6]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

I've seen some sources from Berkeley that estimate that 99% of swing traders/day traders do worse than the S&P500 in the long run (repeated day trading/swing trading versus buy and hold). Hilariously, the number 1 predictor for failure was length of time day trading/swing trading. In other words, the longer one day trades/swing trades the worse they do.

Are people really motivated by a 1% chance to beat the market? Seems awfully small.

Hedge funds (overall) have a better track record, although they're still well less than 50%.

Yea I don't get day trading either tbh / I am in it for the long haul for most part unless I see something I can't pass up selling.

I am 80% cash right now. I only bought some BA, & a few 100 shares of airlines. Think the move is to just dollar cost average for a few weeks / months until we are out of the woods.

[BimmerDimmer6]

Originally Posted by MisterF80M3

Just let it bottom out first. No point catching a falling knife.

Yea, I am being patient, nothing really makes sense right now other than airlines, but I think they will be cheap for a while at least well into Q3.

[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by BimmerDimmer6

Yea I don't get day trading either tbh / I am in it for the long haul for most part unless I see something I can't pass up selling.

I am 80% cash right now. I only bought some BA, & a few 100 shares of airlines. Think the move is to just dollar cost average for a few weeks / months until we are out of the woods.

My parent bought some BA as well some at 180 and then later at 160 to lower average cost per share. Can definitely see it going up long term after the 737 max saga plus coronavirus effects.

[Jordan's World]

Well, I wasn't very comfortable with my position in the cruise lines, so I ended up selling a significant portion of my intended long term holds while they were in the green, leaving me 90% cash right now.

I'm thinking airlines would be a safer bet with similar upside. I figure air travel is more of a necessity and will rebound quicker, not to mention, I don't think fed will allow them to go under.

My thinking right now if prices become more palatable:

33.3% LUV, DAL, AAL
33.3% BA
33.3% DIS & PK

I like BA and think they will spike again when Trump gets reelected. GOV is like 1/3 of BA's revenue and that might increase over next couple of years. DIS and PK have strong assets and will rebound nicely when airlines resurface.

I have no idea what I'm doing, but I just know I need to get some skin in the game soon.

[Jordan's World]

Originally Posted by MisterF80M3

It looks bearish to me. The uptrend is broken.

Thanks for the response. I agree, I was hesitant to pull the trigger last week, but glad I waited. Uptrend not looking good in the short term.

Curious to see what happens on the 29th when Q1 earnings come out. I'd imagine worse case scenario is already factored in, but will be intersting to see if there is any significant movement heading into the weekend.

[Rmtt]

Originally Posted by Jordan's World

Well, I wasn't very comfortable with my position in the cruise lines, so I ended up selling a significant portion of my intended long term holds while they were in the green, leaving me 90% cash right now.

I'm thinking airlines would be a safer bet with similar upside. I figure air travel is more of a necessity and will rebound quicker, not to mention, I don't think fed will allow them to go under.

My thinking right now if prices become more palatable:

33.3% LUV, DAL, AAL
33.3% BA
33.3% DIS & PK

I like BA and think they will spike again when Trump gets reelected. GOV is like 1/3 of BA's revenue and that might increase over next couple of years. DIS and PK have strong assets and will rebound nicely when airlines resurface.

I have no idea what I'm doing, but I just know I need to get some skin in the game soon.

I'm still looking at REIT's for long term. Also looking at stuff like MGM as they have enough operating cash to hold on for awhile.

As I said earlier, I got into AIKI when it was low right before they did a PR about their "patent". Got out close to the top...and now back in on the down side. Just some swing trading. Same with OAS.

Biotech's can be good for buying the dip and selling the rise especially if you find one that's following the same pattern for a couple of weeks. You can sometimes average $100-$200 a day doing this. Just like an ATM machine.

If I find something that alerts me, I typically buy and then set a sell limit of about 20-30% above what I bought in at, set a Stop Loss, and then forget about it.

But I wouldn't recommend this for large amounts of money. This is just passing the time with money set aside for this.

I have had Stop Losses trigger accidentally because I wasn't watching the trends close enough and sell everything I had just hours before the stock surged and lost.

It's basically gambling without going to a casino. Also...never "chase" a stock. I found that out long ago. I was a "bag holder" for awhile as it took months to average back down to a point where I could get out and break even.

[Nuckle]

Originally Posted by MisterF80M3

Just let it bottom out first. No point catching a falling knife.

What do you think it will bottom out at? I think the reverse split is happening tonight. I need to buy down my share price. I can't decide if I should do that before or after the spilt.

[smyles]

Strictly my opinion, but reverse split is almost never a good thing; I'd either cut the losses or let it sit hoping for a miracle, but wouldn't sink in any more $$.

[Jordan's World]

Originally Posted by Rmtt

I'm still looking at REIT's for long term. Also looking at stuff like MGM as they have enough operating cash to hold on for awhile.

As I said earlier, I got into AIKI when it was low right before they did a PR about their "patent". Got out close to the top...and now back in on the down side. Just some swing trading. Same with OAS.

Biotech's can be good for buying the dip and selling the rise especially if you find one that's following the same pattern for a couple of weeks. You can sometimes average $100-$200 a day doing this. Just like an ATM machine.

If I find something that alerts me, I typically buy and then set a sell limit of about 20-30% above what I bought in at, set a Stop Loss, and then forget about it.

But I wouldn't recommend this for large amounts of money. This is just passing the time with money set aside for this.

I have had Stop Losses trigger accidentally because I wasn't watching the trends close enough and sell everything I had just hours before the stock surged and lost.

It's basically gambling without going to a casino. Also...never "chase" a stock. I found that out long ago. I was a "bag holder" for awhile as it took months to average back down to a point where I could get out and break even.

Yea, I read where you bought AIKI a few weeks ago and was glad to see you made a nice profit but was distraught when I saw you immediately went back in after their direct offering at a buck. But hey, I guess it's play money? Wouldn't do you any good just to have it sitting around in a savings account anyway: might as well chase some excitement during quarantine, don't blame you there.

I also like MGM, but am hesitant about certain REIT's, mainly with a high stake in retail. I still don’t see retail bouncing back anytime soon. This might be the straw that broke the camel’s back regarding retail, but just speculation. I think some people still value the “experience,” but I don’t believe in it long term. Maybe residential is safer? But even then, do you think it’s a good time to buy in? Doesn’t real estate usually lag behind the market? I like real estate, but am thinking I will attempt to make a few bucks (hopefully) in the market this year and then take advantage of some multifamily mid next year. I really want to live in a duplex/triplex/quadplex and rent out the other sections while in grad school, but prices need to come down. I cant swing a $3000 mortgage, but can manage $1500 or something.

Totally agree with the gambling perspective. I actually went to a casino for my 21st birthday and did surpassingly well for my first time! Some of my older pals said to stop now and never come back, LOL. I guess I didn't listen very well. I do like poker though, but not for some crazy sums.

[Rmtt]

Originally Posted by Jordan's World

Yea, I read where you bought AIKI a few weeks ago and was glad to see you made a nice profit but was distraught when I saw you immediately went back in after their direct offering at a buck. But hey, I guess it's play money? Wouldn't do you any good just to have it sitting around in a savings account anyway: might as well chase some excitement during quarantine, don't blame you there.

I also like MGM, but am hesitant about certain REIT's, mainly with a high stake in retail. I still don’t see retail bouncing back anytime soon. This might be the straw that broke the camel’s back regarding retail, but just speculation. I think some people still value the “experience,” but I don’t believe in it long term. Maybe residential is safer? But even then, do you think it’s a good time to buy in? Doesn’t real estate usually lag behind the market? I like real estate, but am thinking I will attempt to make a few bucks (hopefully) in the market this year and then take advantage of some multifamily mid next year. I really want to live in a duplex/triplex/quadplex and rent out the other sections while in grad school, but prices need to come down. I cant swing a $3000 mortgage, but can manage $1500 or something.

Totally agree with the gambling perspective. I actually went to a casino for my 21st birthday and did surpassingly well for my first time! Some of my older pals said to stop now and never come back, LOL. I guess I didn't listen very well. I do like poker though, but not for some crazy sums.

I got back in AIKI and it's been trading sideways....but it's a classic "pump and dump" stock. I knew I would be holding for about a month or so or at least to another press release. Then it spikes and I sell on the way up. I'm not trying to sell at the top, just sell during the ride up.

Just 20% is plenty for me....but others will tempt fate and try to hang in there to squeeze as much as they can and get caught.

Those types of stocks are heavily manipulated, so you just have to look for patterns and when to get in and get out.

As for Retail...I see them coming back up slowly depending on how they go about reopening the country. So it's a long hold as most of them are down so low.

Real Estate...I think it takes a special person to deal with that. I mentioned on here somewhere before where I couldn't be a landlord. But there are a lot of people on here that are successful at it.

But it sounds like you have your wits about you looking into this at your age. I applaud you for that and wish more were that way!

[Jordan's World]

Originally Posted by Rmtt

I got back in AIKI and it's been trading sideways....but it's a classic "pump and dump" stock. I knew I would be holding for about a month or so or at least to another press release. Then it spikes and I sell on the way up. I'm not trying to sell at the top, just sell during the ride up.

Just 20% is plenty for me....but others will tempt fate and try to hang in there to squeeze as much as they can and get caught.

Those types of stocks are heavily manipulated, so you just have to look for patterns and when to get in and get out.

As for Retail...I see them coming back up slowly depending on how they go about reopening the country. So it's a long hold as most of them are down so low.

Real Estate...I think it takes a special person to deal with that. I mentioned on here somewhere before where I couldn't be a landlord. But there are a lot of people on here that are successful at it.

But it sounds like you have your wits about you looking into this at your age. I applaud you for that and wish more were that way!

Well hopefully there will be some positive news with an AIKI treatment or something, I guess thats what you're betting on? That and the public's confidence they might come up with something?

Totally agree that you have to be cut out for real estate. It's not for everyone and I'm sure it will be a pain in the butt if it ever happens. Parents are totally against it of-course, but I don't care. I think there is potential to cash flow and essentially live for free. Single bedrooms around here (college town) rent for $900. If I can find a 4 unit building with 2 bedrooms each and rent out each room via individual lease agreements thats $7,200 a month in revenue.

And I hope you're right about retail, aside from tourism, Orlando's local economy is highly dependent on in-person shopping, but I mean, what metro area isn't? It just sucks because I know a lot of people who are struggling right now and think they will for quite some time.

[Rmtt]

Originally Posted by Jordan's World

Well hopefully there will be some positive news with an AIKI treatment or something, I guess thats what you're betting on? That and the public's confidence they might come up with something?

Totally agree that you have to be cut out for real estate. It's not for everyone and I'm sure it will be a pain in the butt if it ever happens. Parents are totally against it of-course, but I don't care. I think there is potential to cash flow and essentially live for free. Single bedrooms around here (college town) rent for $900. If I can find a 4 unit building with 2 bedrooms each and rent out each room via individual lease agreements thats $7,200 a month in revenue.

And I hope you're right about retail, aside from tourism, Orlando's local economy is highly dependent on in-person shopping, but I mean, what metro area isn't? It just sucks because I know a lot of people who are struggling right now and think they will for quite some time.

Honestly...AIKI is not really going to amount to much IMO. They have some shares from HOTH being distributed among AIKI holders in a few days I think....but it's good for cash each time it swings.

When they want to raise cash....they have a PR and pump the stock. So buy when it's low and sell when you have everyone new to it trying to get in to make a quick buck on the PR's. In the last couple of months, it has jumped to $2.3X...fell back, and then $3.2X. Now it's back in the $.70's again.

So if you are holding in that $.70 -$1.00 range...it's easy picking if you are patient.

As for your parents......just tell them you respect their opinion but you are making your own way. I have friends who own property and do really well.

Closest I got to dealing with property was buying and selling undeveloped land a few years ago.

[exE36M3]

[ shrugs ]
0. Set a goal - make money over time, make money now (and when to cash out), etc.
1. Look for companies you like
2. Look for companies that are profitable
3. Look for companies that have a decent vision / plan at least 2 years into the future
4. Make a list where companies check all 3 of the above boxes
5. Look up each one's price over time to get an idea of their average stock price.
6. Then look for buying opportunities - like industry bad-news or global news.
7. Buy.
8. At the moment you go WHOA I made A LOT of MONEY, check your goals.

Bought A LOT stocks on all the bad news. Up about 20%+ across the board on those purchases.

[Jordan's World]

Originally Posted by exE36M3

[ shrugs ]
0. Set a goal - make money over time, make money now (and when to cash out), etc.
1. Look for companies you like
2. Look for companies that are profitable
3. Look for companies that have a decent vision / plan at least 2 years into the future
4. Make a list where companies check all 3 of the above boxes
5. Look up each one's price over time to get an idea of their average stock price.
6. Then look for buying opportunities - like industry bad-news or global news.
7. Buy.
8. At the moment you go WHOA I made A LOT of MONEY, check your goals.

Bought A LOT stocks on all the bad news. Up about 20%+ across the board on those purchases.

I've done several of these type of lists. Mainly for potential scenarios. I'm not sure if it's meaningful, but I've been using median share price as a barometer for price outlook in the next couple of years. Along with choosing industry leaders that are currently undervalued. This is assuming said companies are able to return to regular cash flows in the next 1.5 years and more importantly, survive.

Just trying to reduce risk like anyone else.

I picked up some LUV this morning right after earnings report at 29.0 per share. I don't see how anything else could drive down price other than when Q2's come out.

Other airlines are reporting this week & I think I will jump in.

[Jordan's World]

Originally Posted by Rmtt

Honestly...AIKI is not really going to amount to much IMO. They have some shares from HOTH being distributed among AIKI holders in a few days I think....but it's good for cash each time it swings.

When they want to raise cash....they have a PR and pump the stock. So buy when it's low and sell when you have everyone new to it trying to get in to make a quick buck on the PR's. In the last couple of months, it has jumped to $2.3X...fell back, and then $3.2X. Now it's back in the $.70's again.

So if you are holding in that $.70 -$1.00 range...it's easy picking if you are patient.

As for your parents......just tell them you respect their opinion but you are making your own way. I have friends who own property and do really well.

Closest I got to dealing with property was buying and selling undeveloped land a few years ago.

I'll leave AIKI up to you. Too volatile for me to mess with.

What the heck happened in the 90's though? There stock was like 60 grand in 92. That seems insane considering it's 0.70 now.

What am I missing? LOL

[MisterF80M3]

Originally Posted by Nuckle

What do you think it will bottom out at? I think the reverse split is happening tonight. I need to buy down my share price. I can't decide if I should do that before or after the spilt.

No one knows where the bottom is. Judging by the chart, it doesn't look like we are there yet.

I would just hold off on adding any more cash to that junk and just hold it long term. It could be months or years before you break even.

[Rmtt]

Originally Posted by Jordan's World

I'll leave AIKI up to you. Too volatile for me to mess with.

What the heck happened in the 90's though? There stock was like 60 grand in 92. That seems insane considering it's 0.70 now.

What am I missing? LOL

Yeah....."Penny Stocks" are really something just to get a gambling fix. Never use money that you aren't willing to lose as 98% of the time...you will lose.

My Retirement accounts are locked in. This is money on the side that I made and just use to "play" with. I put in an initial investment, and pulled that out once I had made some money with it. So everything in that account is just money I keep "recycling".

There are plenty out there. You can use TD Ameri-trade's "Think or Swim platform" and play in paper money just to get a grasp of how it works. It has all the charts, Level 2's, etc.

[Nuckle]

Good grief the market is on fire today. I am up 20,30,40 and even 50 percent on my positions other than USO lol. How do you know when to sell?

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by Nuckle

Good grief the market is on fire today. I am up 20,30,40 and even 50 percent on my positions other than USO lol. How do you know when to sell?

Who knows. The stocks I bought have gone up 30-90%. I’m giving them until this time next year so not planning on selling until then. If you’re looking to make money short term just decide on a sell price.

[drledford93]

Any good tutorials on getting started? I'm starting doing the play money with think or swim but would love some good tutorials on picking winners. (I have a mathematics background, so I love a good analysis...)