[RM7]

Originally Posted by heavyD^2

It would be suicide for large car companies to divert all their resources into a market segment that only amounts to 2% of vehicles sold.

Like the automobile vs. horse carriages in 1900...

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

Like the automobile vs. horse carriages in 1900...

That analogy works so well here.

[allinon72]

Except the motor vehicle was a humanity changing innovation compared to the horse and carriage. The electric car is just another iteration of the motor vehicle, where the environmental benefits are questionable. No one really knows what the strain on the grid will be or where these batteries will go once they are used up.

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Except the motor vehicle was a humanity changing innovation compared to the horse and carriage. The electric car is just another iteration of the motor vehicle, where the environmental benefits are questionable. No one really knows what the strain on the grid will be or where these batteries will go once they are used up.

It was sarcasm.

[Gamb1t]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Except the motor vehicle was a humanity changing innovation compared to the horse and carriage. The electric car is just another iteration of the motor vehicle, where the environmental benefits are questionable. No one really knows what the strain on the grid will be or where these batteries will go once they are used up.

That's the million dollar question. No one really knows. There will be a tipping point where the current power grid cannot supply the juice. One may also ask, what energy source are these power stations generating from? Coal? fossil fuel generators? That's dirty still. Nuclear? Hydro? Tell that to countries with little kinetic water source.... solar?

The rise in EV means less demand on petrol... when that happens, crude oil prices will go down which in turn lower gas prices. What happens then?
Unless governments mandate a stoppage on ICE vehicles, there may reach a balance of co-existence with these two automotive energy sources.

I was driving to work last week and I saw a Model 3 following a school bus diesel. The school bus gunned it at the lights and left a cloud of smoke on the Tesla. I couldn't help chuckled at the irony.

[Darth One]

Tesla isn't going to kill the german car. They have a lot of advantages being first to market, but they won't be the sole player for much longer, and they didn't make any profits that could be used to secure future dominance. Of the assets they currently have now, the only one that's difficult to replicate is the supercharger network, which admittedly is a big advantage.

Porsche essentially made a better Tesla in one try. Not better in every way, and sure - it's much more expensive, but hey that's the Porsche pricing strategy and they proved it could be done.

Tesla is a worthy competitor but they're not going to stop VAG, Daimler and BMW from doing what they want to do. A bigger threat to those companies would be a sucky product strategy...oh hai BMW!

[F32Fleet]

Originally Posted by Darth One

Tesla isn't going to kill the german car. They have a lot of advantages being first to market, but they won't be the sole player for much longer, and they didn't make any profits that could be used to secure future dominance. Of the assets they currently have now, the only one that's difficult to replicate is the supercharger network, which admittedly is a big advantage.

Porsche essentially made a better Tesla in one try. Not better in every way, and sure - it's much more expensive, but hey that's the Porsche pricing strategy and they proved it could be done.

Tesla is a worthy competitor but they're not going to stop VAG, Daimler and BMW from doing what they want to do. A bigger threat to those companies would be a sucky product strategy...oh hai BMW!

I can see Germany(EU) passing a national speed limit of 70 mph. Not having to design vehicles for current autobahn speeds would go a long way towards a transition to EV.

[Sedoy]

Originally Posted by Darth One

Porsche essentially made a better Tesla in one try. Not better in every way, and sure - it's much more expensive, but hey that's the Porsche pricing strategy and they proved it could be done...

Better in that way? Performance, range, efficiency, technology, convenience? The only thing Taycan does better than Model S (which is btw very outdated, designed about 10 year ago) is track performance. In everything else Tesla S is still the king.

[Darth One]

Originally Posted by Sedoy

Better in that way? Performance, range, efficiency, technology, convenience? The only thing Taycan does better than Model S (which is btw very outdated, designed about 10 year ago) is track performance. In everything else Tesla S is still the king.

Everything but price, range and (thanks for reminding me) autonomous driving tech.

But my point, just to be clear, is to not get into a point-by-point evaluation of Taycan vs Model S. It was simply to say that Tesla can’t kill German cars if German car makers can make a competitive product as quickly as they have been able to.

[M3_WC]

Originally Posted by Darth One

Everything but price, range and (thanks for reminding me) autonomous driving tech.

But my point, just to be clear, is to not get into a point-by-point evaluation of Taycan vs Model S. It was simply to say that Tesla can’t kill German cars if German car makers can make a competitive product as quickly as they have been able to.

Fit and finish as well, a big factor for many when spending over $100k.

[Gamb1t]

I just read VW's unveiling of the ID3. Looks like the next evolution of the e-golf. Undercuts Model 3.
What's interesting is VW rolling up it's sleeve and putting the hammer down with its mfg and supply chain strategies. Major car mfgs have these stuff down pat unlike Tesla going through production hell and assembly under tents. Which explains the fit and finish of its models.

The EV game is just getting started. Porsche has slotted in future e-Boxsters and e-Caymans! I can't wait for an e-Miata.

[Sedoy]

Originally Posted by Darth One

Everything but price, range and (thanks for reminding me) autonomous driving tech.

But my point, just to be clear, is to not get into a point-by-point evaluation of Taycan vs Model S. It was simply to say that Tesla can’t kill German cars if German car makers can make a competitive product as quickly as they have been able to.

I understood your point and agree that Tesla is not going to kill germans. But you need to add few more thing to your list. Last time I checked Model S had better acceleration (probably to ~100 mph) and most importantly - convenience of supercharging network. Taycan can't even get over-the-air updates. So track performance is the only thing Taycan is ahead of Tesla, which is irrelevant to probably 99% of EV buyers. Fit & finish expected to be better for x2 price of Tesla.

[clee1982]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

Hasn’t even started. End of 2018 electric vehicles had a market share of 2.1%. We will see what it is at the end of this year, certainly will have gone up. Nothing will matter until infrastructure can handle a mass adoption, at the moment we are many many years away from that. Plenty of time for competition to grow.

Side note, anyone find market share for BEV’s only. Hybrids don’t count in my book. What percentage of that 2.1 is BEV?

total market share is a different thing though, at least in the "entry premium market" I thought Model 3 2019 Q2 outsold BMW 3/4 series + MB C + Lexus ES + Audi A4?

[eluded]

For BMW moving to electric from ICE will cost at LEAST a quarter million jobs lost due to a simple motor (electric is like 30 parts) vs thousands of parts to make a ICE motor.