[PSUSMU]

Any thoughts on BBRY today? It's throwing me for a spin.
Put in a buy order at 13.10, but I missed it. Now kicking myself.

[mact3333]

Posted earlier this week that I am seeing a IT top and needed to hedge all my long positions...sold half my BBRY earlier this week and put a stop on rest at break even point...will hold FB and AAPL as I am hedged with short positions.

[M5Rlz]

I got pummeled on that CTL 22% drop

[slamako]

Vanity--are you setting up at TVIX trade? I'm eyeing that this week. Volitility at an all time low and with sequestration looming, I'm sure some Vol will get kicked back in.

The only kicker is how much government intervention (money printing) will suppress the volitility.

--------------------
Lastly-anybody else here a subscriber to TastyTrade?

[r0wr]

Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by slamako

Vanity--are you setting up at TVIX trade? I'm eyeing that this week. Volitility at an all time low and with sequestration looming, I'm sure some Vol will get kicked back in.

The only kicker is how much government intervention (money printing) will suppress the volitility.

--------------------
Lastly-anybody else here a subscriber to TastyTrade?

Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.

Originally Posted by r0wr

Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.

Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Just happened to click the thread and saw my name! After the +10 move in SPX yesterday I exited my vol short position. I was expecting a dip today but I don't think anyone saw -20 SPX points today. Here's the kicker. Today the index lost -1.25% but cash VIX popped 19%. Not sure if you're familiar with vol but that is much too high of a jump. Usually correlated around +5-9% on the spot VIX when the index sells off 1% like this. Instead, we saw +19% which means we either go to hell tomorrow to justify this VIX pop (another -20 point day) or this vol is coming down. Here's a fact though: 10% of the VIX call volume was from ONE very large trader. This trader SOLD his long vol positions into the close today, which tells me even he realizes this was overdone today. I am short fol as of the close of the index. XIV @ $21.98. Time stamped.



Vol would agree with you. If we get a flat to up day tmr, $vix could drop 6-12%, driving down futures by a lesser amount (probably 4-8%). This would hurt the most people. We would run up again, make a second lower high and then kaboom (possibility). $vix spike might have just been a warning flare, not the actual Calvary yet.

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.

I agree with what you said. There is actually a 75% chance of an up day tomorrow from my back test given such a big spike in VIX with such a small down day from SP500. In terms of the intermediate, I'm still bullish. Home builders took a fat hit today a well. Consider shorting XHB if you agree.

[amanda hor$t]

still holding steady with my french and german big caps here... yawn

[roastbeef]

thoughts on SNY (sony)?

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Posted earlier this week that I am seeing a IT top and needed to hedge all my long positions...sold half my BBRY earlier this week and put a stop on rest at break even point...will hold FB and AAPL as I am hedged with short positions.

Called for IT top a week ago...hope you guys listened...yeah the big picture over the next year is still up but hard to ride out a IT top unless you hedge your longs with short positions.

Divergences showing up weeks ago....sentiment was too high...need a reset.

[mact3333]

anyone getting afraid yet?....prob not...too early for fear...that will come abit later...


.........

[slamako]

Originally Posted by Vanity

P.s. never touch TVIX, the vehicle does not track it's NAV correctly and will piss you off trying to capitalize on VIX spikes. Go with VXX. Never touch 2x Vix etfs unless you seriously want to not be able to cover your losses when it goes down.

Thanks for the tip. New to Vol trading. I'm planning to jump out by month's end. I want to have fear and uncertainty brew over the weekend.

Would you say the same applies for any leveraged (double/triple) underlying?

Since you mentioned this, I will watch this trade tighter. Thanks.
I'm on the right side of the trade (thus far) but will watch the decay.

[PSUSMU]

Originally Posted by mact3333

anyone getting afraid yet?....prob not...too early for fear...that will come abit later...


.........

Scared money don't make money.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by slamako

Thanks for the tip. New to Vol trading. I'm planning to jump out by month's end. I want to have fear and uncertainty brew over the weekend.

Would you say the same applies for any leveraged (double/triple) underlying?

Since you mentioned this, I will watch this trade tighter. Thanks.
I'm on the right side of the trade (thus far) but will watch the decay.

TVIX.IV will tell you how much the product should be worth. Tbh, choose UVXY over TVIX if you are going to be doing a 2x VIX long. Just remember that the collapse of volatility is fast and going at 2x the speed is dangerous when you're on the wrong side. Case in point, UVXY dropping 10% in 30 mins today.

Also, I averaged my XIV position today into the black. Sold earlier in the day and then bought back into XIV at $20.89, right before that epic vol collapse today. VIX was definitely over priced on the ST and this will cause a bounce back rally that might go to 1520 or even 1530 before a large (possible) correction takes place. 1500 held well today. As of this writing, SPX was up around +6 on ES.

Originally Posted by PSUSMU

Scared money don't make money.

+1. Money must be an army that we send out daily. And what we want is for them to take back prisoners so we can send them out to get more prisoners.

[slamako]

Thanks Vanity-I locked in a profit in TVIX and got out. Thanks for the tip.

Waiting for a GLD, SLV bottom and go.
Will try my first option trades (covered calls and naked short puts) once I get my account authorized.

To All-any advice to a newbie in Options? Should I go directly into a spreading strategy? (verticals?)

[PSUSMU]

BBRY is scaring me. Nibbled on a lil more at $13.25.

[Inspired]

BBRY is all over the place. If $13 don't hold I can see it go back to $12 really quickly

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Rotation is just barley starting: out of hi betas, into staples (KO, MCD), and into other dividend paying stocks (safer). If you haven't closed out some of your longs, now is the time to do so. We're in for a correction. IMO, today's decline is considered a buy and we'll try one more time up before we see a true top.

As stated, the declines were considered a buy and I still see us trying the top again before we see a true reversal.

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by slamako

Thanks Vanity-I locked in a profit in TVIX and got out. Thanks for the tip.

Waiting for a GLD, SLV bottom and go.
Will try my first option trades (covered calls and naked short puts) once I get my account authorized.

To All-any advice to a newbie in Options? Should I go directly into a spreading strategy? (verticals?)

If your looking at GLD watch for support at 155

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

As stated, the declines were considered a buy and I still see us trying the top again before we see a true reversal.

Agreed, I'm looking at a turnaround in almost all currencies against the dollar. Meaning the dollar should lose some value in the coming week or so leading to equities rallying

[slamako]

Whoa! What a finish!
Out of TVIX, but got in VXX midday for some of the action!
Beginning of the (minor) correction gents?

[mact3333]

is anyone afraid yet?...prob not...you will be...

Did anyone accept my warnings over a week ago?...act one it?...prob not...but you will...