[DrVenture]

Stocks in my portfolio that are having a great 2025 YTD: AMGN, PM, KLG, YUM, IBM, JNJ, NOK, MO, RTX, MCD - all between +10 and +26% YTD. Very value oriented.

My worst performers are TSM and AMZN and MSFT and CEG, though other than MSFT, they all had stellar 2024 performance.

I do note that Halliburton had a bad 2024 and is having a bad 2025. Not a great sign for the "drill Baby, Drill" narrative.

[DrVenture]

The situation is evolving so rapidly, it is impossible to keep track. Canada threatening to cut off electricity supplies. The U.S. threatening to double tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It is almost as if this whole thing wasn't all that well-conceived. But, it is spiraling in the manner that many predicted.

A fairly comprehensive write-up on tariffs and their efficacy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/do-t...ts-say-no.html

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

The situation is evolving so rapidly, it is impossible to keep track. Canada threatening to cut off electricity supplies. The U.S. threatening to double tariffs on Canada and Mexico. It is almost as if this whole thing wasn't all that well-conceived. But, it is spiraling in the manner that many predicted.

A fairly comprehensive write-up on tariffs and their efficacy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/do-tariffs-protect-us-jobs-and-industry-economists-say-no.html

the only place where i could remotely see tarrifs working (outside of 200 years ago)... is if it was very industry specific and said industry had a fully developed backup at home that was potentially govt backed and it was an industry we truly wanted to build at home... this would alleviate some of the pricing worries and would give folks an immediate alternative...

in every other instance such as here... its pretty much a straight disaster

[DrVenture]

"The U.S. stock markets have accelerated their sell-off cementing the Nasdaq, S&P500 and Dow Jones index prices below the 200 day simple moving average (200MA). The move below the 200MA suggests that the long term uptrend is now broken although, does not yet confirm a bear market or new long term downtrend...

The S&P 500 is currently breaking support at 5670. A close below this level suggests the next level of support to be a long way down at around 5385."

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

... One example: Pg 10 ignores the impact on housing demand of removing illegal immigrants. A housing price decline seems more likely, especially in cities. Mortgage rates already have ticked down a bit. If the FED cuts rates as Barron’s anticipates, mortgage rates will fall further, affordability thus improves.

Sounds like an opportunity to invest in the homebuilder segment, if you think that scenario will outweigh the negatives. Homebuilders were weak in 2024, and even weaker YTD. I have no idea how many illegal aliens are homebuyers. I have heard they tend to not utilize traditional mortgage loans.

I don't know that Barron's is 'anticipating' FED rate cuts. That info iusually comes from CME Fedwatch. And is based on weakening economic indicators. Regardless of what mortgage rates do (and lower mortgage rates often coincide with higher housing prices), the impact of higher lumber, drywall and concrete prices, along with difficulty procuring labor is likely to result in upward pressure on new home construction prices. Which is what Barron's was referring to in that paragraph. Loss of GSE status may counteract lower FED funds rates, however.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by ASAP

the only place where i could remotely see tarrifs working (outside of 200 years ago)... is if it was very industry specific and said industry had a fully developed backup at home that was potentially govt backed and it was an industry we truly wanted to build at home... this would alleviate some of the pricing worries and would give folks an immediate alternative...

in every other instance such as here... its pretty much a straight disaster

Pretty much.

The only times tariffs really make sense, IMHO, for an economy as globally connected as ours is if they are done early and with extremely solid reasoning behind them. Meaning, they aren't intended to block trade and instead are setup to ensure fair trade.

To expand on that point a bit. One area China has used heavily in the past to accelerate manufacturing job loses in America was through artificially devaluing their currency. This was a major reason China would purchase and hold disproportionate amounts of US debt. That's not the only way China competes, but we're not going to have a PhD dissertation on US / China trade here... Back to the point. We could have levied tariffs on those goods in a focused manner to counter the currency manipulation and ensure the US manufacturers could compete on level ground.

Doing blanket tariffs this late is counterintuitive. You're going to struggle to build back the manufacturing base and its auxiliary suppliers. But even worse... by attacking our allies you're losing access to their markets too...

Best we can do is to seize on the world's growing concern around China with trade agreements that make our market more favorable to trade with while building an off ramp from China's manufacturing prowess...

Republicans and Trump can't do that though as the major trade pacts to do that, like the TPP, were signed by Obama. So instead we're setting ourselves on fire.

[DrVenture]

Some facts about the New Canadian PM. This guy does not appear to be a pushover.

'Canada elected central banker extraordinaire Mark Carney as the leader of the Liberal Party on Sunday, making him Justin Trudeau’s successor as Prime Minister.

When he’s sworn in this week, Carney will inherit a country in the midst of an economic hailstorm brought on by US tariffs. But he knows a thing or two about tough economic climates, and he’s regarded by economists as a rock star central banker.

Who is this guy? Carney is like a living Patagonia vest—he studied at Harvard and Oxford before a 13-year stint at Goldman Sachs. Despite having no political experience, he made his way into the spotlight after years of successfully piloting countries through the economic equivalents of Scylla and Charybdis as the head of two central banks.

Carney ran the Bank of Canada from 2008–2013, helping stabilize the country through the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis.The Bank of England recruited him in 2013 to steer the country through Brexit. He was the first non-Brit to hold the position since the bank’s founding in 1694.
He already came out swingin’. In his acceptance speech, Carney said that President Trump is “attacking Canadian workers, families, and businesses.” He also indicated that he plans to keep reciprocal tariffs on US goods until the US starts to show some “respect.”'

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

...

Best we can do is to seize on the world's growing concern around China with trade agreements that make our market more favorable to trade with while building an off ramp from China's manufacturing prowess...

...

Which is essentially the exact opposite of what is now being done. And will likely produce the exact opposite result. Hampering our trade (exports and imports) with all parties involved. And leading to the inevitable strengthening of China's trade alliances with nearly everyone.

We are self-imposing economic sanctions on ourselves. The sort of thing that we have historically done to North Korea or Iran. Causing them to turn inward to try and create from scratch, in a manner of speaking.

All I know is that I have a boatload of dry powder and just need to seek out the point of maximum pain to re-enter certain positions. Another 5% down? Another 10? Who said, "never let a good crisis go to waste"?

[T.R.S.]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Which is essentially the exact opposite of what is now being done. And will likely produce the exact opposite result. Hampering our trade (exports and imports) with all parties involved. And leading to the inevitable strengthening of China's trade alliances with nearly everyone.

We are self-imposing economic sanctions on ourselves. The sort of thing that we have historically done to North Korea or Iran. Causing them to turn inward to try and create from scratch, in a manner of speaking.

All I know is that I have a boatload of dry powder and just need to seek out the point of maximum pain to re-enter certain positions. Another 5% down? Another 10? Who said, "never let a good crisis go to waste"?

Good luck trying to out-guess someone who is totally short sighted and reactionary, and who's only real goal is how do I enrichen myself here and now?

"Don't worry, it'll only hurt a li'l bit for a li'l while, then I'll make it all better!"

[Mani59]

Hello all,

A reminder to all that please do not post political posts. Such posts will / have been deleted and may lead to infractions / bans against members and / or this thread being deleted.

You can read more about this here.

Thanks, Mani

[DrVenture]

Yes, let's not get this thread deleted. It can be tricky to discuss economic policy as it pertains to investing. And folks may perceive discussing actions as criticism of the actual decision makers. Let's all try to avoid that which is directly personal or confrontational. I am hoping we can look back in a year and see how what we all anticipated, actually played out.

If anything, this year has really illustrated how economic policy decisions have a direct impact on the investing environment in which we participate. I believe we can discuss those actions/decisions without making overt personal judgments.

Thank you Mani59 , for the patient reminder.