[rolltidef32]

Originally Posted by nicknaz

I dunno, it gets out performed by tesla on the all electric side on the streets, and traditional sports cars on the petrol side. I personally wouldn't want i8 and i3 as the template for the future BMW.

Going down in weight via smaller powertrains and advanced materials tech is more what I'd like to see happen

Nick, the Tesla outperforms everything other than what, a P1, 918, LaFerrari, or a Veyron?

Sure, if you put the i8 up against a V12 Lambo or Ferrari sure it'll lose. It just has an i3 and an electric motor. However, it is a peek into the future.

There isn't even an ///M version yet, think about when the do one...

[RoundelM3]

Originally Posted by spuntyb

You couldn't 3D print a home 10 years ago either. The idea that they will have affordable CF hybrid versions of all their models in 10 years is totally plausible.

You still can't "3D print a home" affordably today, either - especially not one you'd want to live in. CF isn't a "3D printed" process - totally apples-to-oranges comparison here.

[spuntyb]

Originally Posted by roundel335

You still can't "3D print a home" affordably today, either - especially not one you'd want to live in. CF isn't a "3D printed" process - totally apples-to-oranges comparison here.

It wasn't supposed to be a direct comparison. I'm only challenging the notion that a manufacturer can't build an affordable hybrid version of each of their cars in 10 years, particularly BMW. Will they? Who knows. Can they? I still don't know. But 10 years is a long time for technology to advance.

[RoundelM3]

Originally Posted by S4NoMore

Is there much evidence for the failure of those batteries? I get the feeling that people have a hard time moving past the shouts of early naysayers who pointed to this as a big problem with hybrid technology.

Ignoring the fact that battery warranties are usually 100k, or even 150k in California and other states, the rates of reported battery failures are very low for first gen models and an order of magnitude less for subsequent models (Toyota and Honda hybrids). These cars have been on roads for 15 years now too.

My parents picked up a pre-owned Prius and I looked around on the forums for others' experiences, and nothing really jumped out to refute the low failure rates I mentioned. In fact, it turns out that the batteries are serviceable and I read about one guy who repaired his for practically free - the issue was oxidation of contacts causing intermittent voltage.

I could see a new industry of battery repair growing in the near future, with service cost significantly lower than replacing the whole thing.

Yes, there's plenty of "evidence" of eventual (not on/off total) failure of the batteries because that's the nature of rechargeable batteries. The gradually lose their ability to take and hold a charge - there's nothing "magic" about the ones used in hybrids versus the ones in your rechargeable hand-vac. They're going to need replacement at some point. And it's not going to be cheap. "Battery repair" would consist of what - unsealing them and replacing their innards with fresh material? How exactly would that work? How many "remanufactured batteries" have you encountered on the market? There are some rechargeable AA batteries with 3% recycled battery content, but there just isn't a way to "repair" a battery. When your laptop battery expires, you get a new one - not a refurbished one - because the materials are spent and no longer viable. If the battery pack consists of multiple individual cells, it may be possible to replace a bad or dead one, but the majority of hybrid battery packs aren't made like that.

And then there's the question of safety - in a bad wreck, are there electrical or chemical hazards presented by a large high-voltage battery pack that is split open or if the cables are severed and exposed?

It all comes down to how much you enjoy driving a "real" car with engine sounds and all that. Driving a golf-cart on steroids listening to piped-in fake engine sounds isn't my cup of tea, but I'm sure it appeals to those who'd rather just be along for the ride than actually driving. Ask anyone who was dumb enough to buy Cadillac's version of the Chevy Volt how cool the engine sounds are - one car mag tested it and said its "mooing" sound when struggling to recharge the batteries made them nauseous.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by roundel335

Yes, there's plenty of "evidence" of eventual (not on/off total) failure of the batteries because that's the nature of rechargeable batteries. The gradually lose their ability to take and hold a charge - there's nothing "magic" about the ones used in hybrids versus the ones in your rechargeable hand-vac. They're going to need replacement at some point. And it's not going to be cheap. "Battery repair" would consist of what - unsealing them and replacing their innards with fresh material? How exactly would that work? How many "remanufactured batteries" have you encountered on the market? There are some rechargeable AA batteries with 3% recycled battery content, but there just isn't a way to "repair" a battery. When your laptop battery expires, you get a new one - not a refurbished one - because the materials are spent and no longer viable. If the battery pack consists of multiple individual cells, it may be possible to replace a bad or dead one, but the majority of hybrid battery packs aren't made like that.

And then there's the question of safety - in a bad wreck, are there electrical or chemical hazards presented by a large high-voltage battery pack that is split open or if the cables are severed and exposed?

It all comes down to how much you enjoy driving a "real" car with engine sounds and all that. Driving a golf-cart on steroids listening to piped-in fake engine sounds isn't my cup of tea, but I'm sure it appeals to those who'd rather just be along for the ride than actually driving. Ask anyone who was dumb enough to buy Cadillac's version of the Chevy Volt how cool the engine sounds are - one car mag tested it and said its "mooing" sound when struggling to recharge the batteries made them nauseous.

Of course, but all these issues are being solved/dealt with as we go. The "it'll never work!" thought can be applied to almost any modern technology we are using, if you go back far enough before it was perfected and gained widespread acceptance. Of course if you cram that much energy in a small space it'll be a hazard, just like gasoline, but just like cars, we'll find ways to mitigate the effects. Batteries and battery capacity has made huge improvements over the last 20 years, probably on an exponential scale, I'm sure it will continue. Now they have planes that are completely electric, and not just glider-based ones, ones intended for flight training. Sure, it's not all "perfected", but they are doing amazing things.

[RoundelM3]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

Of course, but all these issues are being solved/dealt with as we go. The "it'll never work!" thought can be applied to almost any modern technology we are using, if you go back far enough before it was perfected and gained widespread acceptance. Of course if you cram that much energy in a small space it'll be a hazard, just like gasoline, but just like cars, we'll find ways to mitigate the effects. Batteries and battery capacity has made huge improvements over the last 20 years, probably on an exponential scale, I'm sure it will continue. Now they have planes that are completely electric, and not just glider-based ones, ones intended for flight training. Sure, it's not all "perfected", but they are doing amazing things.

No doubt, but to the point of the original post here - the thought that all BMWs in 10 years will be totally-electric just is "not logical, Captain". I fully expect they'll offer internal-combustion models along with the electric powertrains, but I don't see them shifting over completely until all us "Boomer" car-addicts are dead and gone.

One other thing to ponder: We landed men on the moon several times, beginning in 1969, using 1960s computer/electronic technologies. We haven't yet been back, and, the now-defunct Space Shuttle aside, there have been no significant breakthroughs in space-travel vehicles since then in terms of replacing the chemical-rocket propulsion systems. We haven't landed men on Mars yet, supposedly because we'd rather explore it with robots and the necessary costs associated with providing life support, etc. There just isn't that much appetite for that whole program any more. And what of the Energy Companies? Will they "allow" these advances to bust their 100+ years of monopoly on vehicle fuels? So it remains to be seen whether I'll be driving an all-electric vehicle when I'm 77.

[fuddman]

I think this is mainly an end point for BMW because of the European investment in the idea of "climate change" (or whatever it's called) and not so much because of US market demand. In any case, the decision to go all electric, if the article is accurate, strikes me as very risky because, it's not so much based on science and engineering but, instead, the political winds of the day.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bmw-al...20150629-00597

[rcoccultwar]

Recently, had read Apple guys met with BMW guys to look into a joint project.

It makes sense as Apple doesn't have the facilities at moment to immediately start, and they are sitting on a cash reserve of historical proportions. They could sit on it and count there blessings all day, but that is unlikely. They employ a lot of the best, talented people out there. Still, there are a lot of tensions arising that also seem of monumental proportions. Maybe it's just me.


A few days ago had an hour to burn. Noticed a young man in his early-mid 20's waiting for the pedestrian crosswalk intersection to turn green. Not only was he double fisting his smartphone but he was on the roadway rather than on the sidewalk! I followed him for a block. He was still enamored on his phone, both hands on, and he literally bumped into 2 old grannies while eyes glued to his screen!

We approached the next intersection. He stepped onto the roadway again for a few seconds still glued to his phone. He changed his mind and continued walking leftwards. Still on his phone, an extendo-bus stopped and at least a dozen people got off. The first few people off the bus almost bumped into him. He looked perplexed, then put his phone away. He went into a sandwich shop. I went into the shop as well and told him he should be careful who he bumps into. I was apologetic to the owner and patrons of the store.

Not to write too much, but I always had spent lots of my personal time reading and watching futuristic sci-fi.

On one hand,my first smartphone was one of the best, useful things that I ever purchased. However, I never predicted this type of pattern was going to happen and never thought this might be the way we will evolve.

[Jackie Chiles]

Originally Posted by fuddman

I think this is mainly an end point for BMW because of the European investment in the idea of "climate change" (or whatever it's called) and not so much because of US market demand. In any case, the decision to go all electric, if the article is accurate, strikes me as very risky because, it's not so much based on science and engineering but, instead, the political winds of the day.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bmw-al...20150629-00597

I suspect sloppy reporting.

[BEMR]

Won't bother me at my age now, by that time I'll be in an electric scooter anyway like a "lil rascal". Maybe there might even be an M rascal. They might even call it the BMR.

[Spook410]

Things change. Not sure if the future is electric or something else in the long run. Sometimes makes you want to just grab something with a 6MT and big V8 and hit the road.

[Luftwaffe1O1]

They will definitely go to Hybrid before all electric. And I actually think once that happens, we will start seeing some very nice performance figures.

Currently hybrid performance oriented power trains are really only present in the higher end variants of car manufacturers, i8, La Ferrari, 918 etc. But I would imagine they will trickle down to the lower cars eventually. I doubt BMW would just take the plunge into all electric out of the blue, it would be destroying themselves. I would bet it is definitely a longer process, and if they do go that way eventually? I am sure others will follow.

[Chihuahua]

I can't see every car in the portfolio going 100% electric within a decade, but I can see them all going plug-in hybrid within a decade. Give me a properly set up 3er with a 2L turbo and 30ish miles of electric only range priced well and I'll buy it.

[Mord Mckee]

I have my doubts but to be honest we now have stretches of highways that can induce charge an electric car (still in test phase and with a 5years plan to deploy apparently) in Netherlands and UK. Speaking of UK, the government wants to expand the network of charging stations so there's 1 every 20 miles or so (don't know the time frame for this).

Battery improvements are a constant, recently seen with Tesla (going for huge improvements in autonomy), and the "i" platform was a huge investment that for sure is guiding the strategy of BMW (they didn't reach the break even point between costs of development/production with the sales and it wasn't the objective anyway).

So, in 10 years a lot will change. I assume that the hardest part would be convincing people to go electric, having cities/governments to back it up and resist the lobbying of the oil companies.

Wait and see.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by rolltidef32

With gas prices taking a nosedive here in the U.S. due to global economic slowdown and collapse

Fixed!

Also, the all electric thing doesn't bother me much. If the cars are better great, if not, there are only a couple billion used cars I could take a look at. ;D

[David70]

Maybe 3% of current production is a hybrid/electric seems like a big guess to say this will ramp up to 100% in 10 years.

I didn't realize it but they have produced the Active 5 since 2012 but I can't see any reason you would want to own it. Looks like the added power offsets the weight and virtually no savings on fuel - http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/...t-drive-review

Maybe after they produce their first mainstream hybrid that sells in large numbers and is profitable they can say they are headed to 100%?

[....,,,,..,,..]

Originally Posted by Mord Mckee

I have my doubts but to be honest we now have stretches of highways that can induce charge an electric car (still in test phase and with a 5years plan to deploy apparently) in Netherlands and UK. Speaking of UK, the government wants to expand the network of charging stations so there's 1 every 20 miles or so (don't know the time frame for this).

Battery improvements are a constant, recently seen with Tesla (going for huge improvements in autonomy), and the "i" platform was a huge investment that for sure is guiding the strategy of BMW (they didn't reach the break even point between costs of development/production with the sales and it wasn't the objective anyway).

So, in 10 years a lot will change. I assume that the hardest part would be convincing people to go electric, having cities/governments to back it up and resist the lobbying of the oil companies.

Wait and see.

They might WANT to expand charging stations but where will they put them??

Out of town places are chained and closed after say 2100, majority of garage forecourts have bugger all room.

Yes they could on M road service stations, however will need to increase seating in coffee shops etc.

Land is just too expensive to just expand in some places, charging stations also need some place for people to sit and wait, what do you do with young kids and dog in car middle of August and require an hours charge?

Power charging roads great idea, seen price to resurface 1 mile of A road, 1 mile of Motorway is a nightmare.

[wdb]

I'm looking for a ground level opportunity in the vehicular soundtrack market, which is sure to take off soon.