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If your dealer actually has an allocation, there isn’t that much mystery. the allocation will have the production week assigned to it, which is close enough for estimating the day it finishes and the nebulous transit phase begins. Mine sat in port lot for 4 weeks, then sailed around Europe, and at 5 weeks has only just left Continental waters heading for the Panama Canal. I estimate it will be 4 months from ordering to receiving.
If your dealer doesn’t have an allocation, then you really don’t know what you are dealing with. They may have an idea how long to get one, or sometimes they don’t and sometimes don’t really care. If multiple dealers are available to you, you should probably check with them all.
I got an allocation right away, production week was maybe 10 weeks out, perhaps artificially longer because there was a year-end pause in i5 production, which wasn’t scheduled to resume until January. Your experience may vary.
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